GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is York Space Systems (YSS) Stock Down -20.15% Today?
Key Takeaways
- YSS shares plunged 20.15% to $5.27 in early Friday trading, down from Thursday's close of $6.60.
- The primary catalyst was a third-quarter revenue miss — $84.17 million versus roughly $90 million expected — alongside an adjusted loss of $1.55 per share.
- A $749.7 million non-cash goodwill impairment pushed the GAAP net loss to $807.4 million, or $5.99 per share.
- Secondary drivers: full-year gross margin guidance cut to the low-20% range and a Jefferies downgrade to Hold, plus at least three price-target reductions.
- Major U.S. indices were modestly higher, confirming the selloff was company-specific rather than sector-wide.
- News Significance Score: 64/100 — Major earnings miss and analyst cuts met a move about 4.7x the typical daily swing.
- Traders are watching the implied fourth-quarter revenue ramp and the timing of large defense awards now expected in 2027.
- Explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for deeper data on the stock.
- Track systematic strategies on the Trending AI Robots page.
Opening Summary
York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS) is a Greenwood Village, Colorado-based space and defense prime that designs, builds and operates small satellites for national security, government and commercial customers, including the Pentagon's Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture. The company listed on the NYSE in late January 2026. In the opening minutes of Friday's session, the stock was last trading at $5.27, a decline of 20.15% from Thursday's closing price of $6.60. The direction is firmly negative and the move is a direct earnings-driven reaction: York reported third-quarter results after Thursday's close that missed on revenue, swung to a far larger adjusted loss than expected, booked a $749.7 million goodwill impairment, and guided full-year gross margin lower.
Earnings Miss and a $750 Million Impairment
Revenue for the quarter ended September 30 came in at $84.17 million, down 7% year over year from $90.76 million and below the roughly $90 million consensus. Management attributed the decline to lower Tranche 1 revenue after the remaining satellites were launched, only partly offset by Tranche 2 and subsidiary growth.
The headline loss was dominated by a $749.7 million non-cash goodwill impairment, taken because the company said it could no longer estimate with sufficient certainty the timing and amount of contract awards beyond 2026. That produced a GAAP net loss of $807.4 million, or $5.99 per share. Adjusted EBITDA deteriorated to a loss of $27.6 million from $3.4 million a year earlier. Investors focused on the operating deterioration rather than the accounting nature of the charge, since the impairment is itself an admission that prior acquisition values no longer hold.
Margin and Guidance Reset
Gross margin fell to 18% from 22% a year ago, and management lowered its full-year gross margin outlook to the low-20% range from mid-20s expectations. Full-year revenue guidance was narrowed to $380 million to $400 million, holding the $390 million midpoint that had already been cut from $570 million in August. Funded backlog slipped to $581 million from $592 million in the prior quarter, reinforcing concerns that the pipeline is not yet converting into funded work.
Wall Street Trims Targets, Jefferies Downgrades
Analyst reaction added pressure. Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and slashed its price target to $6 from $15, citing a more elevated operating expense structure after recent acquisitions and limited new order intake. Needham cut its target to $10 from $18 while maintaining a Buy rating, Citigroup moved to $10 from $13, and Piper Sandler trimmed to $7 from $8 with a Neutral rating. The cluster of reductions reset near-term expectations just as the share price approached its 52-week low of $5.26.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The selling was isolated to the company. The S&P 500 gained about 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose roughly 0.3% and the Nasdaq added about 0.2%, leaving the space and defense segment broadly steady while YSS collapsed. Turnover was heavy: roughly 270,000 shares traded in the first fifteen minutes, a significant slice of the stock's recent full-day average of about 2.9 million shares. Technically, the opening gap put the shares below the prior session's $6.46 to $7.39 range and within a few cents of the 52-week low, a level that has acted as the last line of support since the January listing. The stock has now fallen more than 25% from the $10.06 opening print that followed the prior quarterly report, and remains far below its 52-week high of $44.54. Market capitalization has compressed to roughly $725 million on 137.4 million shares outstanding.
News Significance Score
The score runs from 0, meaning no meaningful news and a price move typical for the stock, to 100, meaning transformative news and an extreme, rare move. This event scores 64 out of 100. The verified news was material relative to the company's size: a revenue miss, an adjusted loss per share far wider than consensus, a $749.7 million impairment, a margin outlook cut and a broker downgrade all landed in the same 12-hour window. The price move was also well outside normal behavior — about 4.7 times the stock's typical daily swing of roughly 4.2% and larger than any single session in the past 70. Two strong components combine into the final score.
What Comes Next for YSS
Attention turns to the fourth quarter, which management expects to show a sequential revenue uptick as recently acquired subsidiaries gain traction; the narrowed full-year range implies roughly $87 million to $107 million of fourth-quarter sales. Gross margin is guided to the low-20% range with an adjusted EBITDA loss slightly wider than the third quarter as expenses and inventory build. The pending acquisition of Outlook Industries, which would create a terrestrial unmanned systems unit, still requires closing, and a mid-December autonomy demonstration is scheduled. On the demand side, investors will watch the defense budget process — a stopgap funding measure extending into early 2027 could delay awards that management now sees landing around mid-2027. Risks include continued cash burn, which consumed $248 million over nine months, and a liquidity cushion now at $459 million including a $150 million revolver.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
YSS in +29.04% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where YSS advanced for three days, in 20 of 28 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where YSS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 6 of 11 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for YSS just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where YSS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 4 of 6 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on YSS as a result. In 11 of 11 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where YSS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
YSS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for YSS entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 20 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.397) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (-3.064) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.627) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. YSS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. YSS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
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