XPO Logistics (XPO, $60.27) Shares Tumble on the Back of Earnings Warning
Trucking and logistics company XPO Logistics, saw its share fall by ~10% on Tuesday after it had issued an earnings warning of an 8-K filing with the SEC.
According to this filing, XPO expects its performance to remain on track to generate approximately $625 million of free cash flow for 2018 while for 2019 it expects to generate approximately $650 million of free cash flow. But the company revised its EBIDTA growth rate and expects to grow its adjusted EBITDA only by 12%-15% on a y-o-y basis in 2019.
Although it’s a double digit EBIDTA growth, but this is what led to the share tumble of 9.6%. Just a little over a month ago, XPO CEO Brad Jacobs had told investors to expect something closer to 15% to 18% adjusted EBITDA growth. Therefore, this update suggests that XPO would substantially fall short of its previous estimate even at the low end.
On top of that, the other measure of profitability discussed in the SEC filing free cash flow indicates that XPO is targeting only 4% FCF growth next year, which implies that growth - which is already slower than what promised by the management- will slow further in the new year.
XPO's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XPO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XPO as a result. In 66 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XPO turned negative on August 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
XPO moved below its 50-day moving average on August 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XPO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for XPO entered a downward trend on September 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to good earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. XPO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XPO's P/B Ratio (10.870) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.974). P/E Ratio (53.740) is within average values for comparable stocks, (173.833). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.760) is also within normal values, averaging (35.568). XPO's Dividend Yield (0.000) is considerably lower than the industry average of (0.012). P/S Ratio (2.528) is also within normal values, averaging (1.929).
Industry description
Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of logistics and other transportation services
Industry Trucking
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