XPO Logistics (XPO, $60.27) Shares Tumble on the Back of Earnings Warning
Trucking and logistics company XPO Logistics, saw its share fall by ~10% on Tuesday after it had issued an earnings warning of an 8-K filing with the SEC.
According to this filing, XPO expects its performance to remain on track to generate approximately $625 million of free cash flow for 2018 while for 2019 it expects to generate approximately $650 million of free cash flow. But the company revised its EBIDTA growth rate and expects to grow its adjusted EBITDA only by 12%-15% on a y-o-y basis in 2019.
Although it’s a double digit EBIDTA growth, but this is what led to the share tumble of 9.6%. Just a little over a month ago, XPO CEO Brad Jacobs had told investors to expect something closer to 15% to 18% adjusted EBITDA growth. Therefore, this update suggests that XPO would substantially fall short of its previous estimate even at the low end.
On top of that, the other measure of profitability discussed in the SEC filing free cash flow indicates that XPO is targeting only 4% FCF growth next year, which implies that growth - which is already slower than what promised by the management- will slow further in the new year.
XPO's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XPO turned positive on November 26, 2025. Looking at past instances where XPO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 25, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XPO as a result. In of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XPO moved above its 50-day moving average on November 21, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XPO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XPO advanced for three days, in of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 207 cases where XPO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XPO moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XPO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XPO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XPO's P/B Ratio (9.225) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.104). P/E Ratio (51.345) is within average values for comparable stocks, (76.817). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.332) is also within normal values, averaging (3.518). XPO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.018). P/S Ratio (2.123) is also within normal values, averaging (1.288).
Industry description
Market Cap
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of logistics and other transportation services
Industry Trucking
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