Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
published in Blogs
Feb 15, 2019

XPO (XPO, $60.40) misses Q4 estimates; sales take a hit from business reduction on largest customer

XPO Logistics Inc. missed fourth-quarter earnings & sales expectations, causing its stock to plummet around -17% Friday.

The transportation and warehousing company reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents a share, lower than analysts' expectations of 84 cents.

Quarterly revenue came in at $4.39 billion, missing analysts’ estimate of $4.56 billion. XPO indicated that reduction of business from its largest customer pulled back revenue by $46 million in the fourth quarter.

For full year 2019, XPO is predicting revenue growth in the range of 3% to 5%, with organic revenue growth of 4% to 6%. The company portends that shrinking of business from its largest customer could erode sales by roughly $600 million this year.

Related Ticker: XPO

Momentum Indicator for XPO turns positive, indicating new upward trend

XPO saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on May 25, 2023. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 95 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 95 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The 10-day moving average for XPO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on April 21, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XPO advanced for three days, in of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 228 cases where XPO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for XPO moved out of overbought territory on May 19, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XPO turned negative on May 16, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XPO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

XPO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 26, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XPO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.311) is normal, around the industry mean (194.527). P/E Ratio (33.113) is within average values for comparable stocks, (41.405). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.406) is also within normal values, averaging (2.954). XPO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.014). P/S Ratio (0.725) is also within normal values, averaging (3.441).

Industry description

The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Trucking Industry is 3.34B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 34.55K to 34.63B. ODFL holds the highest valuation in this group at 34.63B. The lowest valued company is NXTN at 34.55K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Trucking Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 6%. RRTS experienced the highest price growth at 26%, while BEST experienced the biggest fall at -13%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Trucking Industry was -43%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -52% and the average quarterly volume growth was 118%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 54
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 58
Profit Risk Rating: 71
Seasonality Score: -2 (-100 ... +100)
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