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AAOI vs LITE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) vs. Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAOI and LITE both supply optical components critical to data center and AI infrastructure, placing them in the same high-growth sector.
- AAOI reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $191.9 million, an 86% year-over-year increase, driven by AI transceiver demand, with the stock showing sharp recent volatility and upward momentum.
- LITE has delivered substantial year-to-date gains exceeding 140%, supported by broad AI-related photonics demand and upcoming Q4 earnings scheduled for August 11, 2026.
- Sector sentiment for both stocks received a lift in early August 2026 following reports of potential restrictions on Chinese transceivers, benefiting U.S.-based suppliers.
- AAOI faces near-term production capacity constraints and higher capital needs, while LITE maintains a larger scale with more diversified optical and photonic offerings.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between AAOI’s recent earnings-driven surge and LITE’s longer-term stability and market positioning.
Introduction
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE) operate in the optical networking and photonics space, supplying components essential for high-speed data transmission in data centers and telecommunications. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance, and market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating exposure to AI-driven demand for optical infrastructure. The analysis focuses on verifiable developments from recent market activity and provides a balanced view of relative strengths and risks for those monitoring sector trends.
AAOI Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells fiber-optic networking products, including transceivers and lasers used in data centers and cable networks. In recent weeks, the stock experienced significant volatility amid strong second-quarter 2026 results released on August 6, with revenue reaching $191.9 million, up 86% year-over-year, fueled by AI-related transceiver sales. The company reported a non-GAAP earnings per share beat, though it highlighted production capacity constraints and elevated capital requirements. Sentiment improved following broader sector news on potential restrictions affecting Chinese competitors, contributing to sharp price movements and elevated trading volume in recent market activity.
LITE Overview and Recent Performance
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products, serving data communications, industrial, and consumer markets with components such as transceivers, lasers, and 3D sensing solutions. Over recent weeks, the stock has extended its multi-month upward trajectory, with substantial year-to-date gains supported by sustained AI demand for high-speed optical connectivity. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on August 11, 2026, with expectations centered on revenue and earnings growth tied to data center expansion. Sector-wide developments, including reports of potential trade restrictions on Chinese transceivers, have also contributed to positive sentiment and price appreciation in recent market activity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies supply optical components for AI and data center applications, yet differ in scale and focus. AAOI operates as a more specialized transceiver provider with vertical integration in lasers, while LITE maintains broader photonics exposure, including industrial and sensing applications, supporting greater revenue diversification. Recent momentum favors AAOI following its earnings beat and immediate price reaction, contrasted with LITE’s steadier, multi-quarter advance. Risk factors include AAOI’s capacity constraints and capital intensity versus LITE’s larger operational footprint. Sector exposure remains similar, though sentiment shifts tied to trade policy have influenced both, with AAOI showing more pronounced short-term swings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent trend consistency, earnings delivery, and sector catalyst positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to AAOI over LITE. The preference reflects AAOI’s sharper post-earnings momentum and direct alignment with AI transceiver demand, though LITE demonstrates greater scale and historical stability that could support relative outperformance in different market regimes. This assessment relies on quantitative signals rather than forward projections.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAOI is a Buy and LITE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAOI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileLITE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AAOI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LITE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAOI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LITE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAOI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LITE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AAOI (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а +7.41% price change this week, while LITE (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was +12.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was +2.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +28.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAOI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
LITE is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (+2.74% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
| AAOI | LITE | AAOI / LITE | |
| Capitalization | 11.7B | 82.6B | 14% |
| EBITDA | -16.14M | 552M | -3% |
| Gain YTD | 296.099 | 152.983 | 194% |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 143.22 | - |
| Revenue | 507M | 2.49B | 20% |
| Total Cash | 440M | 3.17B | 14% |
| Total Debt | 280M | 3.31B | 8% |
AAOI | LITE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAOI's Valuation (49) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LITE (83). This means that AAOI’s stock grew somewhat faster than LITE’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as AAOI (53). This means that LITE’s stock grew similarly to AAOI’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's SMR Rating (43) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAOI (94). This means that LITE’s stock grew somewhat faster than AAOI’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as AAOI (34). This means that LITE’s stock grew similarly to AAOI’s over the last 12 months.
AAOI's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for LITE (97). This means that AAOI’s stock grew significantly faster than LITE’s over the last 12 months.
| AAOI | LITE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 86% | 16 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 81% |
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AAOI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAOI has been loosely correlated with LITE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAOI jumps, then LITE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AAOI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | 100% | +2.79% | ||
| LITE - AAOI | 65% Loosely correlated | +13.63% | ||
| CIEN - AAOI | 52% Loosely correlated | +11.49% | ||
| VIAV - AAOI | 51% Loosely correlated | +12.27% | ||
| LASR - AAOI | 47% Loosely correlated | +7.78% | ||
| NVDA - AAOI | 45% Loosely correlated | +3.03% | ||
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LITE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LITE has been closely correlated with CIEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LITE jumps, then CIEN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LITE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | 100% | +13.63% | ||
| CIEN - LITE | 68% Closely correlated | +11.49% | ||
| AAOI - LITE | 65% Loosely correlated | +2.79% | ||
| VIAV - LITE | 61% Loosely correlated | +12.27% | ||
| ITRN - LITE | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.68% | ||
| NOK - LITE | 41% Loosely correlated | +9.32% | ||
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