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LITE vs VIAV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lumentum Holdings (LITE) vs. Viavi Solutions (VIAV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both LITE and VIAV are riding strong AI-data-center tailwinds, but they occupy different parts of the value chain: Lumentum supplies optical and photonic components, while Viavi focuses on test and measurement.
- Lumentum's revenue more than doubled year over year in its most recent quarter, while Viavi posted roughly 40% full-year revenue growth with sharply expanding margins.
- LITE has been the stronger momentum story, gaining well over 100% year to date, though it now trades at a rich valuation relative to forward earnings.
- VIAV's diversified mix, including aerospace and defense and its acquired Spirent assets, offers a broader growth base beyond pure optics.
- Relative performance, valuation, and risk profile are the central trade-offs in this stock comparison.
Introduction
Investors and traders tracking the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout frequently weigh optical-networking plays against each other. This comparison examines LITE (Lumentum Holdings) and VIAV (Viavi Solutions), two companies benefiting from surging data-center connectivity demand but operating with distinct business models. Lumentum manufactures the optical and photonic components that move data at high speed, while Viavi provides the testing, monitoring, and assurance tools used to validate those increasingly complex networks. For investors deciding how to position around AI infrastructure, understanding the differences in market positioning, momentum, and risk between these two names is essential.
LITE Overview and Recent Performance
Lumentum Holdings designs and manufactures optical and photonic products, including semiconductor laser chips, optical modules, optical circuit switches, and industrial lasers used across cloud, AI, and data-center networks. In recent weeks, LITE has been one of the market's strongest optical-networking performers, reflecting accelerating AI-driven demand. The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.01 billion, up roughly 109% year over year, while non-GAAP gross margin surpassed 50% for the first time. Management guided for continued sequential growth, and analysts have issued upbeat ratings and raised price targets, citing optical circuit switch momentum and next-generation 800G and 1.6T transceiver shipments. This enthusiasm has pushed the stock sharply higher, leaving its valuation multiple elevated relative to historical levels.
VIAV Overview and Recent Performance
Viavi Solutions is a global provider of network test, measurement, and optical technologies, serving telecom, cloud, enterprise, and aerospace and defense customers. In recent market activity, VIAV has gained alongside its optical peers, supported by robust AI-data-center testing demand and contributions from its acquired Spirent product lines. For its most recent fiscal year, Viavi reported revenue of about $1.52 billion, up 40% year over year, with non-GAAP earnings rising sharply. Its Network and Service Enablement segment grew nearly 70% in the latest quarter, and management guided for continued sequential improvement. The company's positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) products have added aerospace and defense diversification, helping reduce its historical reliance on cyclical telecom carrier spending.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in their business models. Lumentum is a component supplier whose fortunes are tied closely to optical demand from hyperscale cloud providers and AI infrastructure, giving it high sensitivity to the optics upgrade cycle. Viavi, by comparison, is a test-and-measurement provider whose revenue is more diversified across data-center, telecom, and aerospace and defense customers. On momentum, LITE has outperformed VIAV in recent quarters, though both have delivered exceptional gains. On valuation, LITE's forward multiples are significantly higher, reflecting expectations that its explosive growth continues, while Viavi trades at a more moderate premium. Risk factors also differ: LITE carries concentrated customer and product-cycle exposure, whereas Viavi's diversification cushions some cyclical swings but also dilutes its exposure to the fastest-growing optics segment. Market sentiment currently favors both, though investors appear willing to pay a steeper price for Lumentum's more direct leverage to AI optical connectivity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward LITE in the current environment. The stock's sustained uptrend, accelerating revenue growth, expanding margins, and rising analyst estimates represent a stronger convergence of momentum and fundamental catalysts. That said, its elevated valuation introduces greater sensitivity to any disappointment. VIAV offers a more balanced, diversified profile with steadier margin improvement, which may appeal under a more stability-oriented framework. The favorable view on LITE is expressed in probabilistic terms rather than as a certainty, reflecting the genuine trade-offs between momentum and valuation embedded in this comparison.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LITE is a Hold and VIAV is a Hold.
LITE in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
LITE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 27 of 31 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LITE moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 33 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LITE as a result. In 67 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LITE turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LITE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
LITE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +4.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LITE advanced for three days, in 265 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 233 of 288 cases where LITE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 81%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 17 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LITE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (17.794) is normal, around the industry mean (5.894). P/E Ratio (145.468) is within average values for comparable stocks, (107.419). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.080) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.006) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (22.779) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
VIAV in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
VIAV moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 24 of 32 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VIAV moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VIAV as a result. In 58 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VIAV turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VIAV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
VIAV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for VIAV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +12.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VIAV advanced for three days, in 234 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 191 of 274 cases where VIAV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VIAV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.964) is normal, around the industry mean (5.894). VIAV has a moderately high P/E Ratio (350.500) as compared to the industry average of (107.419). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.470) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.006) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.208) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
LITE | VIAV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 93 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 50 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 70 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 17 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LITE's Valuation (85) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as VIAV (92) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that LITE’s stock grew similarly to VIAV’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as VIAV (50) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that LITE’s stock grew similarly to VIAV’s over the last 12 months.
VIAV's SMR Rating (91) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as LITE (100) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that VIAV’s stock grew similarly to LITE’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as VIAV (36) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that LITE’s stock grew similarly to VIAV’s over the last 12 months.
VIAV's P/E Growth Rating (70) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as LITE (94) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that VIAV’s stock grew similarly to LITE’s over the last 12 months.
| LITE | VIAV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 83% | 15 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LITE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while VIAV’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- LITE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VIAV’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LITE’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VIAV’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LITE’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- VIAV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
LITE (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а -17.08% price change this week, while VIAV (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was -16.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was -10.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
LITE is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
VIAV is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (-10.67% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
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VIAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VIAV has been closely correlated with CIEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VIAV jumps, then CIEN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VIAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIAV | 100% | -4.49% | ||
| CIEN - VIAV | 66% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| LITE - VIAV | 65% Loosely correlated | -2.99% | ||
| AAOI - VIAV | 55% Loosely correlated | -2.89% | ||
| HLIT - VIAV | 52% Loosely correlated | +5.69% | ||
| CRNT - VIAV | 51% Loosely correlated | +3.59% | ||
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