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AAP vs ORLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Advance Auto Parts (AAP) vs. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) delivered stronger year-to-date performance with significant gains, supported by solid comparable sales growth in recent quarters.
- O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) has experienced a pullback in recent market activity, trading well below its 52-week high amid broader sector pressures.
- Both companies operate in the automotive aftermarket retail sector, with AAP focusing on turnaround initiatives and ORLY maintaining a more consistent operational track record.
- Recent earnings for AAP showed beats on estimates, while ORLY prepares for its second-quarter results later in July.
- Market sentiment reflects contrasts in momentum, with AAP showing recovery traits and ORLY demonstrating relative stability despite near-term declines.
- Sector exposure to consumer spending on vehicle maintenance remains a shared driver, though execution on store productivity and supply chain efficiency differentiates their positioning.
Introduction
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) represent two prominent players in the U.S. automotive aftermarket retail industry, offering parts, tools, and accessories to both professional mechanics and do-it-yourself consumers. This comparison examines their relative performance, business models, and market positioning in the current environment, where factors such as consumer spending patterns, vehicle maintenance demand, and operational efficiency influence results. Traders and investors focused on sector rotation, momentum analysis, or value opportunities within consumer cyclicals may find this overview relevant for assessing contrasts in growth trajectories and risk profiles.
AAP Overview and Recent Performance
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) operates as a leading retailer of automotive replacement parts and accessories across thousands of stores in the United States. In recent market activity, the stock has shown notable year-to-date appreciation, with gains exceeding 39% in some measures, driven by improved comparable store sales that reached 3.5% in the first quarter—the strongest in several years. Earnings results highlighted beats on both revenue and adjusted earnings per share, reflecting progress on strategic initiatives including store optimization and inventory management. Recent weeks have seen some volatility and pullbacks from intra-period highs, with prices fluctuating around the mid-50s amid broader market movements, though the company reaffirmed full-year guidance.
ORLY Overview and Recent Performance
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is a major operator in the automotive aftermarket, with an extensive network of stores emphasizing professional service customers alongside retail sales. In recent market activity, the stock has traded lower, posting year-to-date declines near 7% and moving well below its 52-week high above 108. Performance reflects typical sector dynamics, with pressures from macroeconomic factors affecting discretionary spending. The company maintains a schedule for second-quarter 2026 earnings release later in July, following consistent operational execution in prior periods. Recent price action has shown intraday volatility and a gradual retreat, positioning the shares near the lower end of their annual range while preserving longer-term resilience in a competitive landscape.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) share exposure to the automotive aftermarket but differ in scale, customer mix, and recent trajectory. AAP’s business model emphasizes a broader turnaround effort, with recent comparable sales improvements signaling potential stabilization, whereas ORLY benefits from a historically stronger store productivity profile and professional-focused operations. In terms of recent momentum, AAP has outperformed on a year-to-date basis amid earnings catalysts, while ORLY has faced nearer-term price pressure despite maintaining tighter trading ranges relative to highs. Risk factors include shared sensitivity to fuel prices, vehicle fleet age, and consumer budgets, though AAP carries additional execution risk tied to its recovery path. Market sentiment appears more constructive toward AAP’s near-term catalysts, contrasted with ORLY’s emphasis on defensive consistency in a cyclical sector.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic edge to Advance Auto Parts (AAP) over O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY). This assessment stems from AAP’s stronger recent earnings momentum, comparable sales acceleration, and more pronounced year-to-date recovery, which align with favorable technical indicators in the current window. ORLY’s profile shows greater stability historically but limited near-term catalysts amid its pullback. The outlook remains probabilistic and subject to evolving market conditions, earnings developments, and broader economic data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAP is a StrongBuy and ORLY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileORLY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AAP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ORLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAP’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ORLY’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ORLY’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AAP (@Auto Parts: OEM) experienced а -1.36% price change this week, while ORLY (@Auto Parts: OEM) price change was +3.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Auto Parts: OEM industry was -4.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.50%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAP is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
ORLY is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Auto Parts: OEM (-4.12% weekly)OEM or Original Equipment Manufacturer of auto parts refers to the original producer of a vehicles components, and so OEM car parts are usually identical to the parts used in producing the vehicle in the first place. OEM parts tend to fit the specifications of a particular model, and their compatibility is often guaranteed by the automaker itself. OEM parts could be more expensive to buy (compared to other vendors’ products) when a consumer goes for replacement. However, increased competition from aftermarket parts/third-party vendors could, in some cases, keep EOM prices in check. The industry might progress further in adopting newer technologies like 3D printing to boost supply chain performance and quality. Aptiv PLC, Magna International Inc. and BorgWarner Inc. are major OEMs for autos.
| AAP | ORLY | AAP / ORLY | |
| Capitalization | 3.34B | 72.3B | 5% |
| EBITDA | 509M | 4.1B | 12% |
| Gain YTD | 42.851 | -4.309 | -995% |
| P/E Ratio | 49.38 | 28.43 | 174% |
| Revenue | 8.63B | 18.2B | 47% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 253M | - |
| Total Debt | 5.23B | 8.73B | 60% |
AAP | ORLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 20 Undervalued | 99 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 1 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 70 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAP's Valuation (20) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for ORLY (99). This means that AAP’s stock grew significantly faster than ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for AAP (100). This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than AAP’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's SMR Rating (1) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for AAP (90). This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than AAP’s over the last 12 months.
AAP's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ORLY (61). This means that AAP’s stock grew similarly to ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
AAP's P/E Growth Rating (57) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ORLY (70). This means that AAP’s stock grew similarly to ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
| AAP | ORLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 64% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 71% | 23 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 44% |
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AAP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAP has been loosely correlated with GPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAP jumps, then GPC could also see price increases.
ORLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ORLY has been loosely correlated with CPRT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ORLY jumps, then CPRT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ORLY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 100% | +1.16% | ||
| CPRT - ORLY | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.25% | ||
| AAP - ORLY | 43% Loosely correlated | -4.56% | ||
| MUSA - ORLY | 36% Loosely correlated | +3.49% | ||
| KMX - ORLY | 36% Loosely correlated | +2.58% | ||
| HD - ORLY | 31% Poorly correlated | -1.80% | ||
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