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AAP vs ORLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Advance Auto Parts (AAP) vs. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ORLY is delivering consistent growth, with comparable store sales rising roughly 6–8% in recent quarters, while AAP is early in a multi-year turnaround and still reporting slightly negative comparable sales.
- AAP recently posted its strongest profit quarter in years, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS, or profit allocated to each share) more than doubling, but elevated short interest of roughly 27% of shares available to trade signals persistent Wall Street skepticism.
- ORLY operates at a substantially larger scale and higher profitability, generating strong free cash flow (cash left after capital spending) used for aggressive share buybacks.
- The two companies serve the same automotive aftermarket but differ sharply in execution, momentum, and balance-sheet quality.
- Both face consumer-budget pressures, though ORLY has continued gaining market share while AAP works to stabilize demand.
Introduction
Advance Auto Parts and O'Reilly Automotive are two of the most prominent names in the U.S. automotive aftermarket, yet their recent trajectories could hardly be more different. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how an established industry leader and a company in the middle of a restructuring stack up in the current market environment. By examining relative performance, market positioning, growth drivers, and sentiment, readers can evaluate the trade-offs between stability and turnaround potential. Because both firms compete directly for professional installers and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, their results also offer a useful read on broader consumer and vehicle-ownership trends.
AAP Overview and Recent Performance
Advance Auto Parts is a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider serving professional installers and DIY customers through roughly 4,300 corporate stores, primarily in the United States, alongside independently owned Carquest locations. The company has spent recent years executing a strategic plan focused on profitability, asset optimization, and divesting noncore operations after a prolonged stretch of declining sales, thin margins, and negative free cash flow.
Recent market activity has reflected a mixed, but improving, picture. In its latest quarterly report, AAP posted adjusted diluted EPS of $1.03, up from $0.69 a year earlier, and generated positive free cash flow for the first time in roughly two years. Adjusted gross margin expanded meaningfully, aided in part by tariff refunds, though management attributed a meaningful share of the gain to underlying merchandising improvements. However, total comparable store sales still declined modestly, with particular softness in the DIY channel, and the company trimmed its store-opening target for the year. Sentiment remains divided: high short interest and a forward valuation near the peer range suggest the market is not yet pricing in a full recovery, while rising hedge-fund ownership points to growing institutional interest in the turnaround.
ORLY Overview and Recent Performance
O'Reilly Automotive, founded in 1957 and headquartered in Springfield, Missouri, is one of the largest automotive aftermarket retailers in North America, operating more than 6,600 stores across the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Puerto Rico. The company serves both professional service providers and DIY customers, with a dual-market strategy that has historically supported resilient, market-share-taking growth.
Recent performance has reinforced that reputation. ORLY reported comparable store sales growth of 6% in its latest quarter, building on an 8.1% increase the prior quarter, with professional-segment sales growing at a double-digit pace for multiple consecutive quarters. Revenues have climbed at a high-single-digit rate, and profitability has remained strong, with gross margins above 51% and operating margins around 19–20%. The company continues to generate substantial free cash flow, funding both a steady store-expansion program and aggressive share repurchases. Sentiment remains broadly positive, with the majority of analyst recommendations skewed toward buy ratings, though some analysts have noted a cautious consumer backdrop and rising interest costs as factors worth monitoring.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between the two companies is momentum versus recovery. ORLY is compounding consistent comparable-sales growth and translating it into expanding earnings and cash flow, whereas AAP is still working to return comparable sales to positive territory after a period of contraction. In terms of scale, O'Reilly is roughly twice the size by store count and generates far higher revenue, operating margins, and free cash flow.
The growth drivers also differ. O'Reilly's engine is execution-driven market-share gains across both professional and DIY channels, supported by new-store openings and share buybacks. Advance Auto Parts, by contrast, is relying on margin recovery, supply-chain consolidation, and a leaner asset base, with profitability improvements more dependent on internal restructuring than on robust demand.
Risk profiles diverge as well. AAP carries meaningfully higher execution risk, elevated short interest, and a more leveraged balance sheet, though it also offers a potentially larger re-rating if the turnaround sustains. ORLY's risks are comparatively milder, centered on consumer spending pressure, rising debt and interest expense, and the long-term debate over vehicle electrification's impact on parts demand. From a sector-exposure standpoint, both are pure-play automotive aftermarket retailers, so macro and consumer factors affect them similarly even as their individual results diverge.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, cash-flow generation, and market positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ORLY in the current environment. The company's persistent comparable-sales momentum, strong profitability, and steady free cash flow present a more consistent and lower-risk trend profile than AAP's still-developing recovery. While AAP's recent margin gains and positive free cash flow are encouraging early signals, they have yet to be matched by sustained demand improvement, and elevated short interest indicates the market remains unconvinced. A quantitative model emphasizing trend strength and stability would therefore likely assign higher relative conviction to O'Reilly, while treating Advance Auto Parts as a higher-risk, catalyst-dependent opportunity.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAP is a Hold and ORLY is a Hold.
AAP's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for AAP moved out of oversold territory on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 31 of the 38 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAP as a result. In 74 of 96 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +6.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAP advanced for three days, in 177 of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for AAP moved below the 200-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
AAP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AAP entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.064) is normal, around the industry mean (6.969). P/E Ratio (22.218) is within average values for comparable stocks, (71.549). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.744) is also within normal values, averaging (1.471). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.296) is also within normal values, averaging (49.084).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AAP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for ORLY turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ORLY saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 51 of the 80 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ORLY just turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where ORLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
ORLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ORLY advanced for three days, in 207 of 384 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ORLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
ORLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ORLY entered a downward trend on September 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ORLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ORLY's P/B Ratio (204.082) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.969). P/E Ratio (27.463) is within average values for comparable stocks, (71.549). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.620) is also within normal values, averaging (1.471). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.798) is also within normal values, averaging (49.084).
AAP | ORLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 11 Undervalued | 98 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 85 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 75 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAP's Valuation (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for ORLY (98). This means that AAP’s stock grew significantly faster than ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for AAP (100). This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than AAP’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's SMR Rating (3) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for AAP (85). This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than AAP’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as AAP (62). This means that ORLY’s stock grew similarly to AAP’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's P/E Growth Rating (75) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as AAP (95). This means that ORLY’s stock grew similarly to AAP’s over the last 12 months.
| AAP | ORLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 74% | 13 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 76% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 42% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ORLY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AAP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ORLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAP’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ORLY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ORLY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAP (@Auto Parts: OEM) experienced а +5.08% price change this week, while ORLY (@Auto Parts: OEM) price change was +3.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Auto Parts: OEM industry was -3.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was -17.64%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAP is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
ORLY is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Auto Parts: OEM (-3.63% weekly)OEM or Original Equipment Manufacturer of auto parts refers to the original producer of a vehicles components, and so OEM car parts are usually identical to the parts used in producing the vehicle in the first place. OEM parts tend to fit the specifications of a particular model, and their compatibility is often guaranteed by the automaker itself. OEM parts could be more expensive to buy (compared to other vendors’ products) when a consumer goes for replacement. However, increased competition from aftermarket parts/third-party vendors could, in some cases, keep EOM prices in check. The industry might progress further in adopting newer technologies like 3D printing to boost supply chain performance and quality. Aptiv PLC, Magna International Inc. and BorgWarner Inc. are major OEMs for autos.
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AAP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAP has been loosely correlated with ORLY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAP jumps, then ORLY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AAP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAP | 100% | +1.21% | ||
| ORLY - AAP | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.87% | ||
| AZO - AAP | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.99% | ||
| CPRT - AAP | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| GPC - AAP | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.34% | ||
| HVT - AAP | 40% Loosely correlated | -0.39% | ||
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ORLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ORLY has been closely correlated with AZO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ORLY jumps, then AZO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ORLY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 100% | +0.87% | ||
| AZO - ORLY | 79% Closely correlated | +1.99% | ||
| AAP - ORLY | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.21% | ||
| CPRT - ORLY | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| GPC - ORLY | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.34% | ||
| LKQ - ORLY | 39% Loosely correlated | -0.58% | ||
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