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AAP vs ORLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Advance Auto Parts (AAP) vs. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAP operates a smaller-scale auto parts retail network compared to ORLY, which maintains a significantly larger market capitalization and revenue base.
- Recent market activity shows ORLY demonstrating greater price stability within its 52-week range, while AAP has exhibited more pronounced underperformance relative to sector peers over the past year.
- Both companies serve the automotive aftermarket sector, but ORLY benefits from stronger profitability metrics and analyst target prices indicating higher potential upside.
- ORLY faces upcoming second-quarter earnings release, providing a near-term catalyst for sentiment assessment amid broader sector dynamics.
- Market positioning highlights trade-offs between AAP's value-oriented valuation and ORLY's scale advantages in revenue and net margins.
- Relative performance in recent weeks reflects contrasting momentum, with ORLY maintaining more consistent positioning amid automotive retail headwinds.
Introduction
This comparison examines AAP (Advance Auto Parts) and ORLY (O'Reilly Automotive), two established players in the automotive aftermarket retail sector. Both companies distribute replacement parts, tools, and accessories to professional installers and do-it-yourself consumers, making them relevant for investors tracking consumer discretionary spending and vehicle maintenance trends. The analysis focuses on observable factors such as recent price behavior, business scale, and sector exposure to assist experienced traders evaluating relative momentum as well as newer investors seeking clearer differentiation between established industry names.
AAP Overview and Recent Performance
Advance Auto Parts operates a network of retail stores focused on automotive replacement parts and related products across North America. In recent market activity, the stock has shown volatility consistent with efforts to stabilize operations amid competitive pressures in the aftermarket space. Broader performance metrics indicate underperformance relative to larger sector participants over extended periods, with valuation multiples reflecting a more compressed price-to-sales ratio. Sentiment has been influenced by ongoing initiatives to improve store productivity and inventory management, though these have yet to translate into consistent outperformance in recent weeks. The smaller market capitalization positions AAP as a higher-beta name within the group, sensitive to shifts in consumer spending patterns and supply chain efficiencies.
ORLY Overview and Recent Performance
O'Reilly Automotive runs an extensive chain of stores specializing in automotive aftermarket parts and services, serving both professional and retail customers primarily in the United States. Recent market activity has featured relative resilience in share price within a defined 52-week range, supported by steady revenue growth and margin expansion. The company maintains a substantially larger revenue base and higher net margins than many peers. Developments in recent weeks include preparation for the second-quarter earnings release, which typically serves as a key reference point for assessing same-store sales trends and operational execution. Market sentiment has incorporated reactions to strategic moves, such as acquisition interest in related businesses, contributing to short-term price adjustments while the overall positioning remains anchored by scale advantages.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AAP and ORLY share exposure to the automotive aftermarket but differ markedly in scale, with ORLY commanding a market capitalization exceeding $70 billion versus AAP's approximately $3.4 billion. Business models center on retail distribution, yet ORLY delivers superior net margins near 14% compared to AAP's lower single-digit figures. Recent momentum favors ORLY in relative price stability and analyst targets, while AAP offers a more compressed valuation that may appeal in a recovery scenario. Risk factors include inventory management challenges for both, though ORLY's larger footprint provides greater diversification. Sector sentiment remains tied to vehicle fleet age and repair demand, creating comparable but not identical sensitivities to macroeconomic conditions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, margin stability, and relative positioning within the sector, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probability of favorable risk-adjusted outcomes to ORLY. Its larger scale, stronger profitability metrics, and more consistent recent performance provide clearer signals of resilience compared to AAP's narrower operating profile and greater historical volatility. This assessment reflects probabilistic weighting of available data rather than certainty of future results.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAP is a Hold and ORLY is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileORLY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AAP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ORLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ORLY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- ORLY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AAP (@Auto Parts: OEM) experienced а +3.08% price change this week, while ORLY (@Auto Parts: OEM) price change was +6.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Auto Parts: OEM industry was +4.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.71%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAP is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
ORLY is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Auto Parts: OEM (+4.10% weekly)OEM or Original Equipment Manufacturer of auto parts refers to the original producer of a vehicles components, and so OEM car parts are usually identical to the parts used in producing the vehicle in the first place. OEM parts tend to fit the specifications of a particular model, and their compatibility is often guaranteed by the automaker itself. OEM parts could be more expensive to buy (compared to other vendors’ products) when a consumer goes for replacement. However, increased competition from aftermarket parts/third-party vendors could, in some cases, keep EOM prices in check. The industry might progress further in adopting newer technologies like 3D printing to boost supply chain performance and quality. Aptiv PLC, Magna International Inc. and BorgWarner Inc. are major OEMs for autos.
| AAP | ORLY | AAP / ORLY | |
| Capitalization | 3.49B | 76.3B | 5% |
| EBITDA | 509M | 4.1B | 12% |
| Gain YTD | 49.592 | 2.368 | 2,094% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.61 | 29.69 | 174% |
| Revenue | 8.63B | 18.2B | 47% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 253M | - |
| Total Debt | 5.23B | 8.73B | 60% |
AAP | ORLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 98 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 1 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 75 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAP's Valuation (19) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for ORLY (98). This means that AAP’s stock grew significantly faster than ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for AAP (100). This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than AAP’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's SMR Rating (1) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for AAP (90). This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than AAP’s over the last 12 months.
AAP's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ORLY (52). This means that AAP’s stock grew similarly to ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
AAP's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ORLY (75). This means that AAP’s stock grew similarly to ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
| AAP | ORLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 10 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 42% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| IAK | 149.49 | 1.33 | +0.90% |
| iShares US Insurance ETF | |||
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| Invesco Trust for Investment Grade New York Municipals | |||
| WEEL | 20.40 | 0.10 | +0.49% |
| Peerless Option Income Wheel ETF | |||
| JTEK | 99.12 | -0.84 | -0.84% |
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| UBR | 31.27 | -1.10 | -3.40% |
| ProShares Ultra MSCI Brazil Capped | |||
ORLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ORLY has been closely correlated with AZO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ORLY jumps, then AZO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ORLY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 100% | -0.07% | ||
| AZO - ORLY | 79% Closely correlated | +0.12% | ||
| CPRT - ORLY | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.35% | ||
| AAP - ORLY | 44% Loosely correlated | -2.79% | ||
| LKQ - ORLY | 37% Loosely correlated | +1.49% | ||
| MUSA - ORLY | 36% Loosely correlated | -7.70% | ||
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