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ABG vs ULTA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) operates a network of automotive dealerships focused on new and used vehicle sales along with after-sales services, while Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is a leading specialty retailer of cosmetics, skincare, and beauty products.
- In recent market activity, ABG shares have experienced notable downward pressure, trading near $188 after declines exceeding 19% year-to-date through late May 2026.
- ULTA has shown relative resilience amid broader retail sector movements, with shares hovering around $509 ahead of its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings release scheduled for June 2, 2026.
- ABG faces headwinds from softer-than-expected first-quarter results and ongoing automotive sector challenges, contributing to reduced investor sentiment in recent weeks.
- ULTA benefits from steady comparable sales growth in prior periods and upcoming earnings visibility, though valuation multiples remain a point of market discussion.
- Sector exposure differs markedly, with ABG tied to cyclical auto retail and ULTA positioned in discretionary consumer beauty spending.
Introduction
This comparison examines Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) to highlight differences in business models, recent price behavior, and market positioning. Both companies operate in consumer-facing retail sectors but serve distinct customer bases and face unique economic sensitivities. Institutional investors, active traders monitoring sector rotation, and those evaluating relative value in retail may find the analysis relevant for assessing portfolio diversification or tactical allocation decisions in the current environment.
ABG Overview and Recent Performance
Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) is a major operator of franchised automotive dealerships across the United States, generating revenue primarily through vehicle sales and higher-margin service, parts, and finance operations. In recent weeks, the stock has faced downward pressure following first-quarter 2026 earnings that missed expectations, with shares declining approximately 19% year-to-date and trading near $188 as of late May 2026. Sentiment has been influenced by broader automotive industry softness and reduced transaction volumes, contributing to a 17% drop over the trailing twelve months. The company maintains a market capitalization around $3.5 billion and continues to focus on operational efficiency amid fluctuating consumer demand for vehicles.
ULTA Overview and Recent Performance
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) operates as a leading beauty retailer offering cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and related services through physical stores and e-commerce channels. Recent market activity shows the stock trading near $509, with performance reflecting mixed retail sentiment ahead of fiscal first-quarter 2026 results expected on June 2, 2026. The company reported solid net sales growth of 9.7% for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, supported by comparable sales increases and store expansion. Over recent weeks, shares have exhibited modest volatility consistent with pre-earnings positioning, maintaining a market capitalization exceeding $20 billion while analysts monitor guidance and consumer spending trends in discretionary categories.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) differ substantially in business models, with ABG concentrated in cyclical automotive retail dependent on vehicle financing and service volumes, versus ULTA’s focus on recurring beauty consumption less sensitive to economic cycles. Growth drivers for ABG center on dealership acquisitions and after-sales margins, while ULTA emphasizes comparable sales, new store openings, and brand partnerships. Recent momentum favors neither decisively, though ABG has posted sharper year-to-date declines amid sector-specific pressures. Risk factors include ABG’s exposure to interest rate impacts on auto loans and ULTA’s sensitivity to shifts in consumer discretionary spending. Sector exposure places ABG within automotive retail and ULTA in specialty retail beauty, creating distinct correlations to broader economic indicators. Market sentiment reflects caution toward ABG following earnings misses, contrasted with anticipation surrounding ULTA’s upcoming results.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings visibility, and relative sector positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to Ulta Beauty (ULTA) over Asbury Automotive Group (ABG). ULTA demonstrates more stable recent price behavior ahead of earnings and benefits from established growth in comparable sales, whereas ABG contends with clearer downward momentum and post-earnings adjustments. This assessment remains probabilistic and subject to new data releases.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ABG is a Buy and ULTA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ABG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileULTA’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ABG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ABG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ABG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ABG (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а +5.83% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was -3.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was +2.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20.54%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +2.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.97%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
ABG is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (+2.43% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
@Specialty Stores (+2.31% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
| ABG | ULTA | ABG / ULTA | |
| Capitalization | 3.74B | 20.5B | 18% |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 1.91B | 58% |
| Gain YTD | -13.542 | -21.010 | 64% |
| P/E Ratio | 7.11 | 17.91 | 40% |
| Revenue | 18B | 12.7B | 142% |
| Total Cash | 27.5M | 221M | 12% |
| Total Debt | 5.43B | 2.3B | 236% |
ABG | ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 61 Fair valued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 97 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ABG's Valuation (61) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ULTA (90). This means that ABG’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ABG (97). This means that ULTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than ABG’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's SMR Rating (100) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ABG (100). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to ABG’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Price Growth Rating (64) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ABG (71). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to ABG’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's P/E Growth Rating (54) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ABG (86). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to ABG’s over the last 12 months.
| ABG | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 16 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 71% | 7 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 62% |
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ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with HNST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then HNST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | +3.26% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.19% | ||
| AN - ULTA | 46% Loosely correlated | +4.93% | ||
| CPRT - ULTA | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.46% | ||
| LOW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +4.52% | ||
| ABG - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +3.92% | ||
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