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LOW vs ULTA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lowe's (LOW) vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LOW reported a second-quarter earnings beat driven by pro and home services strength, while lowering full-year sales guidance to reflect softer discretionary demand.
- ULTA shares rose on the appointment of a new board member with specialty retail experience, amid preparations for its upcoming quarterly results.
- LOW operates at a significantly larger scale with higher revenue and market capitalization compared with ULTA.
- ULTA has shown stronger comparable sales growth in its most recent reported quarter, highlighting category momentum in beauty retail.
- Recent market activity for both stocks reflects broader consumer spending caution, with LOW facing DIY pressure and ULTA navigating partnership changes.
- Sector exposure differs markedly, with LOW tied to housing-related spending and ULTA aligned with discretionary beauty and personal care trends.
Introduction
This comparison examines LOW and ULTA to highlight contrasts in business models, recent performance drivers, and market positioning. Lowe's Companies, Inc. is a leading home improvement retailer, while Ulta Beauty, Inc. specializes in beauty products and services. The analysis focuses on observable factors such as earnings trends, guidance updates, and sentiment shifts over recent weeks. Institutional investors and traders evaluating consumer discretionary names may find the relative stability of home improvement versus the growth profile of beauty retail relevant when assessing portfolio diversification or sector rotation strategies in the current environment.
LOW Overview and Recent Performance
Lowe's Companies, Inc. operates a network of home improvement stores across the United States, serving both professional contractors and do-it-yourself customers. In recent market activity, the company reported second-quarter results that included an adjusted earnings per share beat, supported by strength in its pro and home services segments as well as online sales growth. Comparable sales rose modestly, aided by tariff-related benefits. However, management cited persistent pressure on discretionary spending and narrowed full-year sales guidance to the lower end of prior expectations, citing macroeconomic factors including interest rates and consumer caution. Stock reaction was mixed, with initial volatility followed by partial recovery amid sector comparisons to peers.
ULTA Overview and Recent Performance
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty retailer offering prestige beauty products, cosmetics, skincare, and salon services through its store network and digital channels. Recent market activity featured positive share movement following the appointment of a new independent director with extensive specialty retail leadership experience. The company continues to advance its strategic initiatives, including international expansion and category growth in areas such as fragrance and haircare. Earlier quarterly results demonstrated double-digit revenue increases and comparable sales gains. Shares have traded below prior peaks amid broader retail sector dynamics and the conclusion of a key partnership, with upcoming earnings anticipated to provide further visibility into trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
LOW and ULTA differ substantially in scale, with Lowe's generating far higher revenue and maintaining a larger market capitalization. Business models contrast sharply: LOW derives demand from housing maintenance and renovation cycles, exposing it to interest-rate sensitivity and pro-contractor activity, whereas ULTA benefits from discretionary beauty spending that can exhibit resilience during certain economic periods but faces competition and shifting consumer preferences. Recent momentum shows LOW delivering an earnings beat offset by tempered guidance, while ULTA experienced share gains on governance news ahead of its own reporting. Risk factors include macroeconomic pressure on big-ticket projects for LOW and channel shifts plus valuation considerations for ULTA. Market sentiment reflects sector-specific catalysts rather than uniform retail trends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to LOW. Its larger scale and resilience in core pro segments provide a buffer amid consumer caution, though the narrowed outlook introduces uncertainty. ULTA shows potential for recovery through strategic execution and category momentum but carries greater near-term earnings-event volatility. This assessment remains probabilistic and subject to evolving data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LOW is a Buy and ULTA is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LOW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileULTA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LOW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LOW’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LOW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
LOW (@Home Improvement Chains) experienced а -0.62% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was -1.79% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Home Improvement Chains industry was -3.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.78%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was -3.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.50%.
Reported Earning Dates
LOW is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Home Improvement Chains (-3.86% weekly)The home improvement chains industry sells home improvement merchandise and do-it-yourself repair and building goods. Customers include individual contractors or construction managers on one hand; on the other hand, there are retail consumers who’d either buy raw materials/items from the store to do a project on their own, or pay extra for installation services. Products sold include fencing supplies, lumber materials, hardware, lighting fixtures, plumbing supplies, home decor items, bathroom remodel items, roofing materials, tools and wallboard to name a few. The Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Companies, Inc. and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. are some of the biggest home improvement retailing companies in the U.S. Allowing all types of customers the flexibility to choose or buy products both offline and online and then having the products shipped to the respective sites/homes are some of the potential drivers of a home improvement chain’s popularity. Many big-box home improvement chains are looking to expand their overseas presence. Supply-chain efficiency and distribution management are some of the key ingredients to grow/make profit in this industry.
@Specialty Stores (-3.53% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
| LOW | ULTA | LOW / ULTA | |
| Capitalization | 111B | 23.2B | 478% |
| EBITDA | 12.8B | 1.94B | 659% |
| Gain YTD | -16.367 | -10.438 | 157% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.79 | 19.73 | 85% |
| Revenue | 90.4B | 13B | 695% |
| Total Cash | 3.17B | 213M | 1,489% |
| Total Debt | 42B | 2.52B | 1,664% |
LOW | ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 6 | 23 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LOW's Valuation (5) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is significantly better than the same rating for ULTA (92) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that LOW’s stock grew significantly faster than ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Profit vs Risk Rating (60) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LOW (82) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's SMR Rating (6) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as ULTA (23) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LOW (63) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LOW (71) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
| LOW | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 7 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 76% |
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LOW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LOW has been closely correlated with HD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LOW jumps, then HD could also see price increases.