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LOW vs ULTA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lowe's Companies (LOW) vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different growth profiles: Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is posting accelerating comparable sales and raising guidance, while Lowe's (LOW) has reset expectations to the lower end of its range amid soft housing demand.
- Momentum contrast: ULTA has gained roughly 7.8% in market capitalization over recent periods, whereas LOW has lost about 26% over the trailing twelve months.
- Valuation gap: LOW trades near 16.8 times earnings with a dividend yield above 2.5%, while ULTA trades near 21.5 times earnings with no dividend.
- Sector exposure: LOW is tied to housing turnover and discretionary do-it-yourself (DIY) spending; ULTA is anchored to resilient beauty and wellness demand.
- AI-driven read: Tickeron's algorithmic signals currently lean toward ULTA on trend consistency and positive earnings catalysts.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two large, well-known U.S. retailers operating in very different corners of the consumer economy. Lowe's Companies, a home improvement giant, and Ulta Beauty, the nation's largest specialty beauty retailer, offer contrasting exposures to housing, discretionary spending, and brand loyalty. Traders and long-term investors alike may find the pairing instructive, because it highlights how relative performance and market positioning can diverge even when both companies report earnings in the same macro environment. By evaluating recent momentum, growth drivers, and risk factors side by side, readers can better understand where each name stands in the current market.
LOW Overview and Recent Performance
Lowe's Companies (LOW) operates roughly 1,761 home improvement stores and has expanded its footprint through the acquisitions of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group, deepening its exposure to professional (Pro) customers and residential construction. In recent quarters, the company has delivered positive comparable sales, but the pace has been modest, with comparable sales up only 0.2% in its most recent reported quarter. Revenue growth of roughly 8% has been partly driven by acquisitions rather than same-store expansion.
Sentiment has been tempered by persistent softness in discretionary DIY demand and a sluggish housing market shaped by elevated interest rates and low turnover. Management has narrowed its fiscal 2026 outlook to about $92 billion in sales with flat comparable sales, reflecting caution around repair-and-maintenance spending. Online sales remain a bright spot, growing in the mid-teens, while a dividend yield above 2.5% supports income-oriented investors. Over the trailing twelve months, the stock has underperformed, trading in the lower portion of its 52-week range.
ULTA Overview and Recent Performance
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the United States, blending cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, haircare, wellness, and salon services across more than 1,500 stores, alongside a growing e-commerce platform. Recent results have been broadly constructive: the company reported double-digit earnings growth in its latest quarter, with comparable sales up 3.8%, driven by strength in fragrance and prestige haircare. It has also raised its full-year guidance, lifting net sales, comparable sales, and earnings-per-share expectations.
Growth is being supported by the Space NK acquisition, international expansion into Mexico and the Middle East, a loyalty program approaching 47 million members, and newer initiatives such as TikTok Shop and marketplace expansion. The company has maintained share gains in prestige beauty even as the promotional environment has intensified. Unlike Lowe's, Ulta does not pay a dividend but has prioritized share repurchases, increasing its fiscal 2026 buyback plan. The stock has shown firmer relative performance and trades closer to the middle of its 52-week range.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
From a business model standpoint, the two companies could hardly be more distinct. Lowe's is a home improvement retailer heavily tied to the housing cycle, where elevated mortgage rates and low home turnover suppress larger remodeling projects. Ulta Beauty, by contrast, operates in the more resilient beauty and wellness category, where consumers tend to remain engaged even amid broader economic caution. This divergence is visible in relative performance: Ulta has reported comparable sales growth of 3.8% to 5.3% in recent quarters and raised guidance, while Lowe's has guided to roughly flat comparable sales.
On valuation, Lowe's appears cheaper on a price-to-earnings basis and offers a dividend, making it appealing to value- and income-oriented investors. Ulta commands a higher multiple but pairs it with stronger comparable-sales momentum, a differentiated loyalty ecosystem, and a share-repurchase program. Risk factors also differ: Lowe's faces macro-driven demand headwinds and margin pressure, while Ulta faces intensifying promotional competition and an uncertain second-half consumer environment. These trade-offs define the central tension of this stock comparison.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward Ulta Beauty (ULTA) over Lowe's Companies (LOW). Ulta's combination of positive comparable sales, raised guidance, and stable margin execution suggests a more consistent positive trend than Lowe's, which has been navigating flat comps and a downwardly revised outlook. That said, Lowe's discounted valuation and dividend yield could appeal under a housing recovery scenario. The AI's preference is probabilistic, reflecting current momentum rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LOW is a StrongBuy and ULTA is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for LOW turns positive, indicating new upward trend
LOW saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 50 of the 82 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LOW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where LOW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
LOW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LOW advanced for three days, in 183 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LOW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
LOW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LOW entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. LOW’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LOW's P/B Ratio (-14.829) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.543). P/E Ratio (16.601) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.112). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.222) is also within normal values, averaging (1.177). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.227) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.202) is also within normal values, averaging (0.937).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LOW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
ULTA's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ULTA turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ULTA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ULTA as a result. In 59 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +5.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in 215 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 169 of 277 cases where ULTA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
ULTA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ULTA's P/B Ratio (10.270) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.368). P/E Ratio (23.058) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.978) is also within normal values, averaging (1.159). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.093) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.806) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).
LOW | ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 6 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 17 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LOW's Valuation (84) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as ULTA (88) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LOW (88) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ULTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than LOW’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's SMR Rating (6) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as ULTA (22) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LOW (59) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ULTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than LOW’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LOW (62) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ULTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than LOW’s over the last 12 months.
| LOW | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 57% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LOW’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ULTA’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- LOW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LOW’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LOW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
LOW (@Home Improvement Chains) experienced а +5.08% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was +2.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Home Improvement Chains industry was +3.79%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.40%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.34%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +0.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
LOW is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Home Improvement Chains (+3.79% weekly)The home improvement chains industry sells home improvement merchandise and do-it-yourself repair and building goods. Customers include individual contractors or construction managers on one hand; on the other hand, there are retail consumers who’d either buy raw materials/items from the store to do a project on their own, or pay extra for installation services. Products sold include fencing supplies, lumber materials, hardware, lighting fixtures, plumbing supplies, home decor items, bathroom remodel items, roofing materials, tools and wallboard to name a few. The Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Companies, Inc. and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. are some of the biggest home improvement retailing companies in the U.S. Allowing all types of customers the flexibility to choose or buy products both offline and online and then having the products shipped to the respective sites/homes are some of the potential drivers of a home improvement chain’s popularity. Many big-box home improvement chains are looking to expand their overseas presence. Supply-chain efficiency and distribution management are some of the key ingredients to grow/make profit in this industry.
@Specialty Stores (+0.60% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
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ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with HNST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then HNST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | +4.62% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| AN - ULTA | 46% Loosely correlated | +5.77% | ||
| CPRT - ULTA | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.46% | ||
| LOW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +3.97% | ||
| ONEW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.15% | ||
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