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LOW vs ULTA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lowe's (LOW) vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LOW has experienced notable declines in recent market activity, trading near its 52-week low amid broader retail sector pressures.
- ULTA shows mixed performance with year-to-date declines but maintains a higher absolute price level and upcoming earnings catalyst on June 2, 2026.
- Both stocks operate in consumer discretionary retail but differ in end markets, with LOW focused on home improvement and ULTA on beauty and personal care.
- Relative performance indicates LOW has shown somewhat more resilience in percentage terms over the past month compared to ULTA's sharper swings.
- Sector exposure places LOW in housing-related cyclicality while ULTA benefits from discretionary spending trends in cosmetics.
- Market sentiment for both remains cautious, influenced by macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending.
Introduction
This comparison examines LOW and ULTA to highlight differences in business models, recent price behavior, and market positioning. Lowe's Companies, Inc. and Ulta Beauty, Inc. represent distinct segments of the retail landscape, making the pair relevant for investors seeking exposure to consumer spending patterns. Traders and portfolio managers evaluating cyclical versus growth-oriented retail names may find the analysis useful for assessing relative opportunities in the current environment.
LOW Overview and Recent Performance
Lowe's Companies, Inc. operates as a leading home improvement retailer in North America, offering products and services for home construction, maintenance, and repair. In recent weeks, the stock has faced downward pressure, closing at approximately 214.36 on May 29, 2026, after a session decline of 1.63%. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of around 11%, with the shares trading near the lower end of their 52-week range. Recent market activity reflects broader concerns in the housing sector and consumer spending moderation, contributing to tempered sentiment. Performance metrics indicate a pullback from earlier 2026 highs, consistent with sector-wide challenges.
ULTA Overview and Recent Performance
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a major beauty retailer providing cosmetics, skincare, fragrances, and salon services through physical stores and digital channels. The stock closed at about 508.85 on May 29, 2026, down 2.17% that session amid typical volatility. Year-to-date returns reflect a decline near 16%, though the company maintains a 52-week range extending well above current levels. Recent market activity has been shaped by pre-earnings positioning ahead of the June 2, 2026, report, with analysts anticipating revenue and earnings figures that could influence short-term direction. Sentiment remains tied to consumer discretionary trends in personal care products.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
LOW and ULTA differ fundamentally in business models: the former centers on durable goods and project-based home improvement spending, while the latter focuses on recurring beauty and personal care purchases. Growth drivers for LOW include housing market trends and renovation cycles; ULTA benefits from innovation in cosmetics and experiential retail. Recent momentum favors neither decisively, though LOW has exhibited tighter percentage drawdowns in the past month relative to ULTA's wider fluctuations. Risk factors encompass macroeconomic sensitivity for both, with LOW more exposed to interest-rate impacts on housing and ULTA to shifts in discretionary beauty spending. Sector exposure positions LOW in cyclical home goods and ULTA in higher-margin consumer staples-adjacent categories. Market sentiment reflects caution across retail, with valuation multiples and earnings visibility serving as key differentiators.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency and relative positioning amid recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to LOW. Its profile demonstrates greater stability in percentage terms during the recent period compared with ULTA's sharper volatility ahead of earnings. Catalysts for ULTA remain event-driven, while LOW benefits from established sector positioning. This assessment reflects probabilistic weighting of available data rather than definitive outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LOW is a Buy and ULTA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LOW’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileULTA’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- LOW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LOW’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LOW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LOW (@Home Improvement Chains) experienced а +5.19% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was -3.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Home Improvement Chains industry was +1.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.84%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +2.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.97%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
LOW is expected to report earnings on Aug 19, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Home Improvement Chains (+1.91% weekly)The home improvement chains industry sells home improvement merchandise and do-it-yourself repair and building goods. Customers include individual contractors or construction managers on one hand; on the other hand, there are retail consumers who’d either buy raw materials/items from the store to do a project on their own, or pay extra for installation services. Products sold include fencing supplies, lumber materials, hardware, lighting fixtures, plumbing supplies, home decor items, bathroom remodel items, roofing materials, tools and wallboard to name a few. The Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Companies, Inc. and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. are some of the biggest home improvement retailing companies in the U.S. Allowing all types of customers the flexibility to choose or buy products both offline and online and then having the products shipped to the respective sites/homes are some of the potential drivers of a home improvement chain’s popularity. Many big-box home improvement chains are looking to expand their overseas presence. Supply-chain efficiency and distribution management are some of the key ingredients to grow/make profit in this industry.
@Specialty Stores (+2.31% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
| LOW | ULTA | LOW / ULTA | |
| Capitalization | 122B | 20.5B | 595% |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 1.91B | 660% |
| Gain YTD | -9.025 | -21.010 | 43% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.37 | 17.91 | 103% |
| Revenue | 88.4B | 12.7B | 696% |
| Total Cash | 786M | 221M | 356% |
| Total Debt | 42.5B | 2.3B | 1,846% |
LOW | ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 4 Undervalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 25 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LOW's Valuation (4) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is significantly better than the same rating for ULTA (90) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that LOW’s stock grew significantly faster than ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LOW (70) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's SMR Rating (100) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LOW (100) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's Price Growth Rating (63) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as ULTA (64) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is in the same range as ULTA (54) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that LOW’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
| LOW | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 60% | 16 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 57% | 7 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 62% |
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LOW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LOW has been closely correlated with HD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LOW jumps, then HD could also see price increases.
ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with HNST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then HNST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | +3.26% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.19% | ||
| AN - ULTA | 46% Loosely correlated | +4.93% | ||
| CPRT - ULTA | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.46% | ||
| LOW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +4.52% | ||
| ABG - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +3.92% | ||
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