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ABG vs VVV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) vs. Valvoline (VVV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ABG and VVV operate in the automotive value chain, yet their business models differ sharply: ABG is a cyclical auto dealer while VVV is a recurring preventive-maintenance services retailer.
- VVV has demonstrated more consistent same-store sales momentum and raised its full-year guidance, while ABG recently missed quarterly profit estimates and carries elevated leverage.
- Relative performance diverged notably: ABG has underperformed the broader market over the past year, while VVV benefits from steadier, service-driven demand.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: VVV — Tickeron's AI currently favors Valvoline over Asbury Automotive Group based on trend consistency, recurring-revenue characteristics, and more favorable relative positioning.
- For further detail on these companies, explore ABG Major News, ABG Today's Price Move, VVV Major News, and VVV Today's Price Move.
- To see AI-driven trading ideas across the market, explore the Trending AI Robots section on Tickeron.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the automotive sector often face a choice between businesses tied to vehicle sales and those tied to vehicle ownership. Asbury Automotive Group (ABG), one of the largest U.S. auto retailers, generates revenue from selling new and used vehicles alongside parts, service, and finance and insurance (F&I) products. Valvoline (VVV), by contrast, focuses on quick, recurring preventive automotive maintenance through its service-center network. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing cyclical exposure against steadier, service-based revenue. It examines recent momentum, growth drivers, risk factors, and market positioning to clarify how these two names stack up in the current environment.
ABG Overview and Recent Performance
Asbury Automotive Group is a Fortune 500 automotive retailer headquartered in the Atlanta area, operating more than 150 new-vehicle dealerships and numerous collision centers across roughly 14 states. The company's brand mix skews toward luxury and import vehicles, which tends to attract more affluent buyers, but its results remain sensitive to interest rates and the broader auto cycle.
In recent weeks, ABG reported third-quarter revenue of roughly $4.4 billion, down about 8% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.16, below consensus expectations. Despite the miss, shares rose sharply after the report as management highlighted the completed rollout of its Tekion dealer-management system and early efficiency gains. Still, net leverage around 3.5x and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses near 67% of gross profit have kept sentiment mixed. Broader references show ABG has lagged the S&P 500 over the trailing year, reflecting pressure on new-vehicle margins and softer same-store volumes.
VVV Overview and Recent Performance
Valvoline is a Lexington, Kentucky-based provider of preventive automotive maintenance, operating more than 2,400 franchised and company-owned service centers across North America. Its core offerings — oil changes, battery and wiper replacement, and tire rotations — produce recurring, needs-based demand that is less directly tied to new-vehicle sales cycles.
Recent market activity reflects resilient execution. In its latest reported quarter, Valvoline posted net sales up roughly 25% year over year and system-wide same-store sales growth of 8.2%, supported by strong ticket growth and new-store additions, including the Breeze Auto Care integration. Management raised its full-year profitability and same-store sales outlook, though base-oil cost pressure linked to geopolitical events introduced some near-term uncertainty. Analysts have generally maintained favorable ratings while trimming price targets, and the company recently expanded its share repurchase authorization to $500 million. Valvoline's fiscal fourth-quarter results are scheduled for release in mid-November.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
From a business-model perspective, ABG and VVV represent opposite ends of the automotive ecosystem. ABG's earnings are driven by vehicle unit sales and finance and insurance attachment, making it highly cyclical and interest-rate-sensitive. VVV's revenue is anchored in maintenance demand that recurs regardless of new-vehicle sales trends, offering greater stability through economic downturns.
Growth drivers also diverge. ABG is pursuing a technology-led efficiency transformation through its Tekion system and portfolio optimization, but near-term margins remain under pressure from elevated SG&A costs and a softer new-vehicle market. VVV is expanding its store count, integrating the Breeze acquisition, and leveraging same-store sales momentum, though rising input costs and integration expenses present offsetting risks.
On momentum, VVV has shown more consistent same-store sales growth and raised guidance, while ABG's recent earnings beat on operational milestones was tempered by a profit miss. Risk profiles differ as well: ABG carries higher net leverage tied to acquisitions, whereas VVV's principal headwinds are cost inflation and execution around its growth initiatives. In terms of sector exposure, both are consumer-discretionary, but VVV's recurring service model positions it more defensively within that category.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, revenue durability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI currently favors Valvoline (VVV) over Asbury Automotive Group (ABG). VVV's recurring preventive-maintenance model, stronger same-store sales trajectory, and upwardly revised guidance suggest a more stable and consistent trend profile. In contrast, ABG's cyclical exposure, elevated leverage, and recent earnings miss introduce greater variability even amid a promising efficiency transformation. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting current market conditions and the relative momentum and stability of the two businesses at this point in time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ABG is a Buy and VVV is a Hold.
ABG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
ABG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 39 of 52 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ABG as a result. In 68 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ABG just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ABG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +12.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ABG advanced for three days, in 218 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ABG moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ABG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
ABG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ABG entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ABG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 51 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.905) is normal, around the industry mean (1.513). P/E Ratio (7.347) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.280). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.449) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.207) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ABG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
VVV in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
VVV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 38 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VVV as a result. In 52 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The 10-day moving average for VVV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +4.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VVV advanced for three days, in 177 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 82 of 192 cases where VVV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 43%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VVV moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VVV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
VVV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VVV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: VVV's P/B Ratio (10.332) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.513). P/E Ratio (42.175) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.280). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.104) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.772) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VVV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
ABG | VVV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 51 Fair valued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 98 | 89 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ABG's Valuation (51) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VVV (87) in the Chemicals Major Diversified industry. This means that ABG’s stock grew somewhat faster than VVV’s over the last 12 months.
VVV's Profit vs Risk Rating (89) in the Chemicals Major Diversified industry is in the same range as ABG (98) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that VVV’s stock grew similarly to ABG’s over the last 12 months.
VVV's SMR Rating (35) in the Chemicals Major Diversified industry is in the same range as ABG (60) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that VVV’s stock grew similarly to ABG’s over the last 12 months.
ABG's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as VVV (49) in the Chemicals Major Diversified industry. This means that ABG’s stock grew similarly to VVV’s over the last 12 months.
VVV's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Chemicals Major Diversified industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ABG (56) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that VVV’s stock grew somewhat faster than ABG’s over the last 12 months.
| ABG | VVV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 7 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 70% | 21 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 70% | 8 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ABG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while VVV’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ABG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- VVV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ABG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VVV’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ABG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VVV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ABG (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а +1.43% price change this week, while VVV (@Automotive Aftermarket) price change was +5.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was +3.46%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
ABG is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
VVV is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (+3.46% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
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ABG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ABG has been closely correlated with GPI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ABG jumps, then GPI could also see price increases.
VVV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VVV has been loosely correlated with CWH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if VVV jumps, then CWH could also see price increases.
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