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ADP vs MANH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Manhattan Associates (MANH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADP is a large, diversified human capital management (HCM) and payroll provider, while MANH is a focused supply chain and omnichannel commerce software vendor, creating very different risk-reward profiles.
- ADP closed its fiscal 2026 with roughly $21.9 billion in revenue, versus Manhattan Associates' projected full-year 2026 revenue of about $1.16 billion, reflecting a large gap in scale.
- Both companies are leaning on artificial intelligence (AI) as a growth catalyst, though ADP's AI rollout is tied to service efficiency while MANH's is tied to cloud software adoption.
- MANH carries a "Buy" consensus and stronger recent momentum, while ADP carries a "Hold" consensus and a more defensive, dividend-supported profile.
- ADP offers dividend income and stability; MANH offers faster cloud growth but greater valuation sensitivity.
Introduction
Investors weighing a mature, dividend-paying workplace-services giant against a high-growth supply chain software specialist will find this stock comparison instructive. ADP (Automatic Data Processing) and MANH (Manhattan Associates) operate in different corners of the enterprise technology market, yet both are incorporating AI into their products and competing for a share of investor attention. This article examines their relative performance, business models, and market positioning to help traders and long-term investors understand the trade-offs between stability and growth in the current environment.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing is one of the world's largest providers of payroll, human capital management (HCM), and business outsourcing services, serving more than 1.1 million clients globally. In recent weeks, ADP has been consolidating after a strong run, with its shares trading near $264 and a 30-day return that has cooled even as longer-term momentum remains positive. The company reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of roughly $5.47 billion and full-year revenue of about $21.9 billion, up 7%, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growing 11% for the year.
Sentiment has been shaped by a steady stream of AI-related announcements, including the expansion of its ADP Assist agents and The Zone, an AI-infused service platform, alongside growing adoption of its Lyric HCM platform. Employer Services bookings reached $2.2 billion, up 6%, and retention held at 92.1%. Management guided to a more moderate fiscal 2027, with Employer Services bookings growth of 4% to 7%, while continuing a $6.0 billion share repurchase authorization. Analysts generally rate the stock a "Hold," reflecting its premium valuation relative to peers and cyclical sensitivity to hiring trends.
MANH Overview and Recent Performance
Manhattan Associates develops cloud-based software that helps retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers manage supply chains, inventory, and omnichannel fulfillment. The company has generated notable momentum in recent months, with shares up sharply over a 90-day window and trading near $206, though its one-year return remains roughly flat. In its second quarter of 2026, MANH reported revenue of $297.8 million, up 9.3% year over year, driven by a 26% jump in cloud subscription revenue to $126.7 million.
Remaining performance obligations (RPO), a forward indicator of contracted revenue, rose 23% to $2.47 billion, and the company posted its third consecutive quarter of record bookings. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to a range of $1.16 billion to $1.166 billion and lifted adjusted EPS guidance to roughly $5.44 to $5.50. MANH also launched a modular "Editions" packaging structure designed to broaden its addressable market. The stock carries a "Buy" consensus rating, though its premium valuation and restructuring-related costs remain watchpoints for investors.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is scale versus growth velocity. ADP generates revenue roughly 19 times larger than MANH, operates across payroll, HR, and retirement services, and returns significant capital through dividends and buybacks. Its model is cyclical in nature, tied to employment levels and interest income earned on client funds, which can dampen growth when hiring slows.
MANH operates in a narrower but fast-growing niche. Its cloud-subscription transition is still maturing, with RPO growth of 23% signaling durable contracted revenue ahead. However, MANH carries no dividend and trades at a richer multiple, making it more sensitive to growth expectations and any signs of deceleration in cloud bookings. Sector exposure also differs: ADP is sensitive to labor-market and interest-rate conditions, while MANH is tied to retail, logistics, and supply chain capital spending. In short, ADP offers defensive stability, while MANH offers a higher-growth, higher-volatility profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MANH for momentum-oriented strategies, given its accelerating cloud revenue, record bookings, rising RPO, and stronger recent price trend. At the same time, the AI would likely view ADP as the more consistent, lower-volatility candidate suited to stability-focused approaches, supported by its dividend, buybacks, and defensive cash flows. The preferred choice therefore depends on the strategy's objective: MANH's momentum and growth catalysts versus ADP's reliability and capital returns. This assessment reflects probabilistic, data-driven positioning rather than a definitive outcome.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a Buy and MANH is a Buy.
ADP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
ADP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 25 of 45 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADP as a result. In 42 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The 10-day moving average for ADP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADP advanced for three days, in 159 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
ADP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADP entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ADP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (20.232) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.734). P/E Ratio (28.071) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.183). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.020) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
MANH in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026
MANH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 35 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MANH as a result. In 65 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MANH just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where MANH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The 10-day moving average for MANH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +4.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MANH advanced for three days, in 234 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MANH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
MANH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MANH entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MANH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MANH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (89.645) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.734). P/E Ratio (68.798) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.183). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.566) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.338) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
ADP | MANH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 31 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 71 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 14 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 18 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 37 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADP's Valuation (87) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as MANH (96) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to MANH’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as MANH (71) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to MANH’s over the last 12 months.
MANH's SMR Rating (14) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (17) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that MANH’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as MANH (36) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to MANH’s over the last 12 months.
MANH's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (41) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that MANH’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | MANH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 29 days ago 47% | 16 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MANH’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MANH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MANH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MANH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +5.06% price change this week, while MANH (@Packaged Software) price change was +7.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -0.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.98%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
MANH is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-0.43% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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MANH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MANH has been closely correlated with BLKB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MANH jumps, then BLKB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MANH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANH | 100% | +2.69% | ||
| BLKB - MANH | 67% Closely correlated | +5.22% | ||
| WDAY - MANH | 67% Closely correlated | +3.46% | ||
| PCTY - MANH | 67% Closely correlated | +4.93% | ||
| FRSH - MANH | 65% Loosely correlated | +3.34% | ||
| DOCU - MANH | 65% Loosely correlated | +3.60% | ||
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