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ADP vs PCTY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADP is a large-cap payroll and human capital management (HCM) leader with a roughly $120 billion market capitalization, while PCTY is a faster-growing, mid-cap cloud HCM and finance software provider focused on small and mid-sized businesses.
- Both stocks have rallied in recent weeks, but their risk profiles differ sharply: ADP offers lower volatility and a growing dividend, while PCTY carries a richer valuation tied to a higher-growth, AI-driven narrative.
- ADP trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and pays a dividend; PCTY reinvests more heavily in product innovation and acquisitions and does not currently prioritize shareholder dividends.
- Analyst sentiment is mixed on both names, with ADP carrying a consensus "Hold" rating and PCTY seeing a blend of Buy and Equal Weight calls despite recent insider selling.
- For additional detail on these companies, explore ADP Major News and ADP Today's Price Move, as well as PCTY Major News and PCTY Today's Price Move.
- To see which strategies are currently favored by AI-driven systems, explore the curated Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) and Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) both operate in the payroll and human capital management (HCM) space, yet they serve different ends of the market. ADP is a decades-old industry pillar with a diversified client base, while PCTY is a growth-oriented cloud software specialist targeting small and mid-sized employers. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors weighing stability and income against faster growth and higher valuation. Traders and long-term investors alike can use this relative performance and market positioning analysis to understand how two leaders in the same sector diverge on business model, momentum, and risk.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing is a global provider of cloud-based HCM solutions, payroll, tax, and benefits administration, alongside professional employer organization (PEO) services through its ADP TotalSource offering. In fiscal 2026, the company reported total revenue of approximately $21.9 billion, up about 7% year over year, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) rising roughly 10%. ADP also raised its quarterly dividend, reinforcing its standing as a dividend-paying large cap with a low beta, indicating historically below-average volatility relative to the broader market.
Recent market activity has been constructive, with ADP shares staging a notable multi-day winning streak and trading well above their 52-week lows. However, sentiment has been tempered by analyst price-target trims tied to slower employment trends, longer sales cycles, and cyclical concerns around payroll outsourcing. The consensus rating remains a "Hold," though at least one firm has raised its target on the stock, reflecting balanced views between resilient cash flow and a tougher macroeconomic backdrop.
PCTY Overview and Recent Performance
Paylocity Holding Corporation, headquartered in Schaumburg, Illinois, provides a unified cloud platform spanning HCM, finance, and IT software for small and mid-sized businesses, with an average client size of roughly 150 employees. The company has emphasized embedding artificial intelligence directly into its workflows, including AI assistants and premium product tiers, and has pursued tuck-in acquisitions such as Airbase and the AI-powered recruiting firm Grayscale.
In fiscal 2026, PCTY generated roughly $1.76 billion in total revenue and grew GAAP net income to about $269.7 million, while guiding to mid-single-to-low-double-digit growth for fiscal 2027. The stock has shown strong short-term momentum, rising sharply over the past month and quarter, though its five-year total return remains negative. That rebound has coincided with recent insider selling, and the shares trade at a notably higher P/E multiple than the broader professional services sector, reflecting elevated growth expectations.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page highlights a curated selection from a much larger universe of AI trading bots that monitor thousands of different tickers. Rather than listing every available system, this section surfaces only the bots considered most suitable for current market conditions. The bots span a wide range of trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance statistics, and ticker sets, so their approaches can differ considerably even when evaluating the same stock. By focusing on trend consistency, volatility, and relative positioning, the platform helps traders identify automated strategies aligned with prevailing conditions. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to review the strategies currently gaining traction.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale and maturity. ADP generates more than ten times PCTY's revenue, operates with a lower beta, and returns capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. PCTY is far smaller but is expanding revenue at a faster rate and is investing aggressively in AI-driven product differentiation and acquisitions.
On valuation, ADP's lower P/E ratio and dividend yield reflect a steadier, more defensive profile, while PCTY's premium multiple reflects expectations that its growth and AI monetization will continue. Risk factors also differ: ADP faces cyclical sensitivity to employment trends and interest rates, whereas PCTY is more exposed to execution risk around product innovation and integration, as well as valuation compression if growth slows. Sector exposure is similar, but market sentiment currently rewards PCTY's momentum while treating ADP as a steadier, income-oriented holding.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst profile, Tickeron's AI-driven framework would likely favor ADP for investors prioritizing stability and lower volatility, given its consistent cash flow, dividend support, and established market position. For traders focused on momentum and growth potential, PCTY may present a more dynamic, albeit higher-risk, setup, supported by its recent relative strength and AI-oriented roadmap. The most probable outcome depends on the specific strategy and timeframe applied, but the contrast between defensive consistency and growth-oriented momentum remains the defining theme of this comparison.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a Buy and PCTY is a Buy.
ADP's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADP turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADP as a result. In 47 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
ADP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +1.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADP advanced for three days, in 156 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 112 of 252 cases where ADP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 44%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ADP moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 43%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
ADP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ADP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.930) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (27.653) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.020) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
PCTY in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PCTY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PCTY as a result. In 60 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PCTY just turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where PCTY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
PCTY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PCTY advanced for three days, in 178 of 279 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 123 of 208 cases where PCTY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PCTY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
PCTY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PCTY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.521) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (34.699) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.153) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.558) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PCTY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADP | PCTY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 89 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 44 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PCTY's Valuation (82) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (86) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PCTY’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PCTY (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than PCTY’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (17) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PCTY (44) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PCTY’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PCTY (36) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PCTY’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PCTY (54) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PCTY’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | PCTY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 7 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PCTY’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PCTY’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PCTY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PCTY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +3.19% price change this week, while PCTY (@Packaged Software) price change was +4.60% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -2.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.86%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
PCTY is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-2.44% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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ADP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADP has been closely correlated with PAYX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADP jumps, then PAYX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP | 100% | +0.30% | ||
| PAYX - ADP | 86% Closely correlated | -0.71% | ||
| PCTY - ADP | 78% Closely correlated | +0.58% | ||
| ROP - ADP | 67% Closely correlated | +0.68% | ||
| PAYC - ADP | 66% Closely correlated | +1.98% | ||
| MANH - ADP | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.51% | ||
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PCTY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PCTY has been closely correlated with ADP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PCTY jumps, then ADP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PCTY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCTY | 100% | +0.58% | ||
| ADP - PCTY | 77% Closely correlated | +0.30% | ||
| PAYX - PCTY | 72% Closely correlated | -0.71% | ||
| WDAY - PCTY | 70% Closely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| VERX - PCTY | 66% Closely correlated | -0.06% | ||
| MANH - PCTY | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.51% | ||
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