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ADP vs WDAY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Workday (WDAY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADP is a diversified payroll and human capital management (HCM) outsourcer with a long dividend-growth record, while WDAY is a cloud-native software provider monetizing artificial intelligence (AI) more aggressively.
- ADP emphasizes stability, client retention above 92%, and interest income on client funds; WDAY emphasizes faster subscription growth and expanding margins.
- WDAY has posted stronger recent momentum, while ADP has delivered steadier, less volatile performance.
- ADP returns capital through a growing dividend and buybacks; WDAY returns capital almost entirely through buybacks and carries no dividend.
- Valuation and risk profiles diverge sharply: WDAY trades at a higher earnings multiple with higher growth expectations.
Introduction
Investors comparing ADP and WDAY are weighing two distinct approaches to the same broad theme: technology-enabled workforce management. Automatic Data Processing is a mature payroll and HCM outsourcer known for steady cash flows and decades of dividend growth, while Workday is a high-growth enterprise software company betting that AI will reshape human resources and finance. This stock comparison is relevant for investors deciding between defensive income and growth-oriented momentum, and it highlights how market positioning, business models, and sentiment can differ even between companies operating in overlapping end markets.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a leading provider of cloud-based HCM (human capital management) solutions spanning payroll, benefits, HR, time, tax, and compliance, along with professional employer organization (PEO) services. In recent quarters, ADP reported solid revenue growth supported by broad-based segment gains, strong Employer Services client retention of roughly 92%, and higher interest income from client funds balances.
A central theme in recent weeks has been AI adoption. ADP has expanded its ADP Assist agents across payroll, benefits, HR, and compliance, and its internal Zone platform is designed to improve service productivity and consistency. Management has pointed to AI-driven efficiency and a growing share of clients adopting its next-generation Lyric HCM platform as supports for margins and bookings. The company also continues to return capital through a dividend it has raised for more than 50 consecutive years and a sizable share-repurchase authorization. Relative performance has been steady but more muted than higher-growth software peers, reflecting a defensive, income-oriented profile.
WDAY Overview and Recent Performance
Workday (WDAY) is a cloud-native provider of enterprise applications for HCM, financial management, and planning, serving organizations from mid-market businesses to more than 45% of the Fortune 500. In its most recent quarter, Workday reported double-digit revenue growth driven almost entirely by subscription services, alongside a meaningful expansion in non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) operating margin.
The dominant narrative in recent weeks has been AI monetization. Workday reported that AI products generated more than $100 million of new annual contract value (ACV) in a single quarter, accounting for more than 25% of new ACV, while agentic AI annual recurring revenue approached $600 million and grew more than 200% year over year. Thousands of customers now use at least one Workday AI agent. Strong subscription backlog and retention provide visibility, and the company completed a large buyback early while authorizing a new program. Recent momentum has been pronounced, though the stock remains below its 52-week high and does not pay a dividend.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two names is business model. ADP generates revenue through service fees, PEO offerings, and interest on client funds, giving it recurring, economically sensitive cash flows tied to employment trends. WDAY is a subscription software business whose growth depends on bookings, renewal rates, and the pace of AI adoption.
Growth drivers also differ. ADP's growth is comparatively modest and grounded in retention, cross-selling, and AI-assisted productivity, while WDAY's growth is faster and increasingly tied to AI agent adoption and a shift toward consumption-based "flex credit" pricing. On risk, ADP faces cyclical exposure to hiring and payroll volumes and potential AI-driven disruption to traditional outsourcing. WDAY carries execution and valuation risk, longer sales cycles, and competitive pressure in enterprise software.
Market sentiment has favored WDAY's momentum recently, with a sharp multi-month rally following stronger AI results, whereas ADP has delivered steadier, lower-volatility relative performance. Valuation reflects the gap: WDAY trades at a materially higher earnings multiple than ADP, which prices in sustained growth, while ADP's lower multiple and dividend yield appeal to income-focused and defensive investors.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely view these two names through different lenses. WDAY currently shows stronger trend consistency and clearer near-term catalysts from AI monetization, which could favor momentum-oriented strategies. However, ADP offers greater stability, a durable dividend record, and more predictable cash flows, which may align better with lower-risk, trend-following frameworks. In probabilistic terms, an AI model weighting momentum and catalyst visibility would likely lean toward WDAY, while a model prioritizing stability and risk-adjusted consistency would likely favor ADP. The relative positioning ultimately depends on which factors the model is optimized to emphasize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a Hold and WDAY is a Hold.
ADP's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADP turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ADP's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADP as a result. In 41 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
ADP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADP advanced for three days, in 162 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for ADP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
ADP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADP entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (17.212) is normal, around the industry mean (51.922). P/E Ratio (23.931) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.020) is also within normal values, averaging (70.810).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
WDAY's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for WDAY entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 245 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 199 of the 245 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WDAY as a result. In 57 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
WDAY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WDAY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WDAY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 65 cases where WDAY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +0.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WDAY advanced for three days, in 177 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
WDAY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WDAY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.037) is normal, around the industry mean (51.922). P/E Ratio (38.411) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.689) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.773) is also within normal values, averaging (70.810).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WDAY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADP | WDAY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 11 Undervalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADP's Valuation (11) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WDAY (70) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than WDAY’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WDAY (100) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than WDAY’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (17) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WDAY (54) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than WDAY’s over the last 12 months.
WDAY's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as ADP (41) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that WDAY’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's P/E Growth Rating (62) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WDAY (98) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than WDAY’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | WDAY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 15 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 47% | 8 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 7 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 81% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WDAY’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WDAY’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WDAY’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WDAY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +5.16% price change this week, while WDAY (@Packaged Software) price change was -0.28% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -3.95%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
WDAY is expected to report earnings on Dec 01, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-3.95% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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