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ADSK vs AVPT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Autodesk (ADSK) vs. AvePoint (AVPT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADSK (Autodesk) is a large, highly profitable design-software franchise that has pulled back sharply this year, trading well below its 52-week high.
- AVPT (AvePoint) is a much smaller, faster-growing data-governance and AI-protection company with strong recent momentum but a richer growth multiple.
- Autodesk offers scale and established cash flow, while AvePoint offers higher revenue growth tied to the early-stage AI-governance theme.
- Both stocks are exposed to the enterprise software sector but serve very different buyers: designers and manufacturers versus data-security and compliance teams.
- Relative performance has diverged: AVPT has outperformed on a recent and year-to-date basis, while ADSK is recovering from a weaker base.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two software companies at very different stages of maturity and momentum. Autodesk (ADSK) is a decades-old leader in design and engineering software, while AvePoint (AVPT) is a rapidly growing provider of data governance, security, and resilience tools positioned around enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). For investors weighing stability against growth, this pairing highlights a core trade-off: an established, cash-generative franchise trading below its recent peak versus a smaller, high-growth business riding an emerging AI theme. Understanding their market positioning and relative performance can help both long-term investors and active traders assess where each name fits in a diversified technology allocation.
ADSK Overview and Recent Performance
Autodesk (ADSK) provides 3D design, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and entertainment software, including widely used products such as AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion, and the Autodesk Construction Cloud. The company has been shifting its model toward cloud subscriptions and embedding AI capabilities across its platform, supported by recent moves such as an expanded AI partnership with Arcadis and the acquisition of technology assets from BIMDeX to improve data interoperability.
Recent market activity has been mixed for the stock. Autodesk's latest quarterly results exceeded revenue and earnings expectations, with revenue rising roughly 16% year over year to about $2.05 billion and the company raising its full-year guidance. Even so, the shares have traded down sharply on a year-to-date basis and remain roughly 30% below their 52-week high, reflecting investor concerns about competitive AI disruption and transitional sales-model changes. A notable catalyst emerged when Schneider Electric's $22.6 billion acquisition of peer PTC prompted a sector-wide re-rating that briefly lifted Autodesk, as investors reassessed the value of engineering-software assets. The company's high gross margins and recurring subscription revenue provide a resilient foundation, though new-business growth in certain regions has remained uneven.
AVPT Overview and Recent Performance
AvePoint (AVPT) provides a cloud-native data-management platform focused on data protection, governance, security, and resilience, with particular emphasis on helping enterprises govern AI. Its Confidence Platform and newer AgentPulse product give organizations visibility into and control over autonomous AI agents across environments such as Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace. The company frames itself as a "trust layer" for enterprise AI adoption.
Momentum has been comparatively strong in recent weeks. In its latest quarter, total revenue grew about 22% year over year to roughly $124.5 million, with software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue up about 27%. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached approximately $465 million, up 27% year over year, supported by record net new ARR and growing demand for AI-governance tools. The stock has gained double digits over the past month and quarter, though it remains a smaller company with a market capitalization in the low billions. Growth is offset by thinner margins than Autodesk's and meaningful concentration risk tied to the Microsoft ecosystem, which remains a key watch item for investors.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
From a business-model standpoint, Autodesk (ADSK) is a mature design-platform franchise with dominant positions in architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC), manufacturing, and media. Its scale produces gross margins above 90% and substantial free cash flow. AvePoint (AVPT) operates in a narrower but rapidly expanding niche — data governance, security, and AI-agent oversight — where it is capturing share but remains heavily dependent on the Microsoft ecosystem and carries a higher valuation multiple relative to earnings.
The growth-driver contrast is sharp. Autodesk's expansion relies on cloud migration, AI-infused design tools, and cross-selling across its installed base, a steadier but slower path. AvePoint's growth is tied to the fast-moving enterprise AI-governance cycle, offering higher top-line growth but more execution uncertainty. On recent momentum, AVPT has clearly outperformed, while ADSK has lagged year to date despite recovering from its lows. Risk factors also differ: Autodesk faces questions about AI disruption to design software and uneven regional demand, while AvePoint faces concentration risk and margin pressure from rising sales costs. Market sentiment currently rewards AvePoint's growth narrative, even as Autodesk trades at a discount to consensus analyst targets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative momentum, and catalyst alignment, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AvePoint (AVPT) in the current environment. AVPT exhibits more consistent recent price momentum, accelerating ARR growth, and a clear, active catalyst in enterprise AI-governance demand. Autodesk (ADSK) offers stronger fundamentals, scale, and stability, but its trend has been less consistent and its recovery is still building from a lower base. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive prediction: momentum-oriented signals may favor AVPT, while trend-stability and valuation-oriented strategies could tilt toward ADSK. The most suitable choice ultimately depends on the specific trading style and timeframe an investor applies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADSK is a StrongBuy and AVPT is a StrongBuy.
ADSK's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADSK as a result. In 52 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
ADSK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +2.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in 209 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADSK entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (15.751) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.734). P/E Ratio (32.812) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.183). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.797) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.024) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for AVPT turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AVPT saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 73 of the 94 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AVPT just turned positive on September 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where AVPT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
AVPT moved above its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AVPT advanced for three days, in 232 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 152 of 226 cases where AVPT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AVPT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
AVPT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AVPT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.787) is normal, around the industry mean (15.867). P/E Ratio (47.294) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.069). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.648). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.212) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.553) is also within normal values, averaging (103.889).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
ADSK | AVPT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AVPT's Valuation (72) in the null industry is in the same range as ADSK (83) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that AVPT’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
AVPT's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADSK (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that AVPT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADSK's SMR Rating (19) in the Packaged Software industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVPT (53) in the null industry. This means that ADSK’s stock grew somewhat faster than AVPT’s over the last 12 months.
AVPT's Price Growth Rating (37) in the null industry is in the same range as ADSK (43) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that AVPT’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
AVPT's P/E Growth Rating (81) in the null industry is in the same range as ADSK (88) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that AVPT’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
| ADSK | AVPT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 68% | 10 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 67% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADSK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while AVPT’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ADSK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- AVPT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADSK’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while AVPT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADSK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- AVPT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ADSK (@Packaged Software) experienced а +3.99% price change this week, while AVPT (@Computer Communications) price change was +8.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was +2.94%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.57%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Computer Communications industry was +2.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.74%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.56%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADSK is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
AVPT is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (+2.94% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
@Computer Communications (+2.20% weekly)Computer communications industry develops technology that allows computing devices to exchange data with each other using connections/data links between nodes. Common types of computer network include Cloud (IAN), Internet, Wide (WAN, Local (LAN)/Wireless(WLAN) etc. The industry is an ever-more important part of technology, and is set to become even bigger as the Internet of Things (IoT) rapidly forays into the various aspects of our lives. Cisco Systems, Inc., Palo Alto Networks, Inc. and Arista Networks, Inc., Fortinet, Inc. are some of the major computer communications companies.
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ADSK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADSK has been closely correlated with ADBE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADSK jumps, then ADBE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADSK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK | 100% | +4.13% | ||
| ADBE - ADSK | 72% Closely correlated | +6.07% | ||
| BSY - ADSK | 71% Closely correlated | +2.74% | ||
| APPF - ADSK | 68% Closely correlated | +0.06% | ||
| GWRE - ADSK | 67% Closely correlated | +4.26% | ||
| PCOR - ADSK | 67% Closely correlated | +2.27% | ||
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AVPT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVPT has been loosely correlated with ADSK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVPT jumps, then ADSK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVPT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVPT | 100% | +2.29% | ||
| ADSK - AVPT | 61% Loosely correlated | +4.13% | ||
| TENB - AVPT | 61% Loosely correlated | +3.27% | ||
| BOX - AVPT | 61% Loosely correlated | +1.93% | ||
| OKTA - AVPT | 59% Loosely correlated | -3.50% | ||
| FIVN - AVPT | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.54% | ||
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