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ADSK vs PCTY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Autodesk (ADSK) vs. Paylocity (PCTY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different markets, different scales: ADSK is a roughly $51 billion design-software leader, while PCTY is a roughly $9 billion mid-cap in cloud-based human capital management (HCM).
- Faster growth at ADSK: Autodesk's trailing revenue growth is near 18%, roughly double Paylocity's low-double-digit pace.
- Lower volatility at PCTY: Paylocity's five-year beta of about 0.50 is far below Autodesk's beta of roughly 1.33, reflecting a more defensive price profile.
- Both are profitable: Each company carries high gross margins and consensus "Strong Buy" analyst ratings, though their catalysts differ.
- Sentiment diverges: Autodesk trades well below recent highs, while Paylocity sits near the top of its 52-week range with elevated momentum indicators.
Introduction
Investors comparing ADSK and PCTY are weighing two profitable software franchises with very different growth, risk, and market-positioning profiles. Autodesk dominates design and engineering software for architecture, construction, and manufacturing, while Paylocity serves mid-market employers with payroll, HR, and finance tools. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors deciding between a large-cap with cyclical end-market exposure and a steadier, mid-cap recurring-revenue business. Recent market activity and quarterly results have shifted relative performance and sentiment for both names, making a side-by-side review of their fundamentals, momentum, and risk factors timely.
ADSK Overview and Recent Performance
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) provides design, engineering, and construction software, including flagship products such as AutoCAD and Revit, sold primarily on a subscription basis across architecture, engineering, construction (AEC), manufacturing, and media. Its business model is highly profitable, with trailing gross margins near 92% and trailing twelve-month revenue of roughly $7.8 billion.
In recent weeks, Autodesk shares have traded around the mid-$240s, well below a 52-week high near $320 but above the low near $185. The company's latest quarterly results beat expectations, with earnings and revenue coming in above analyst forecasts, and management's commentary around artificial intelligence execution and converged design workflows has supported a broadly constructive tone. Analysts maintain a consensus "Strong Buy" rating, and several firms have initiated or reiterated coverage with price targets well above current levels. A beta near 1.33 indicates the stock tends to move more than the broader market, contributing to sharper short-term swings.
PCTY Overview and Recent Performance
Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) is a cloud-based provider of human capital management (HCM), finance, and IT software, serving more than 40,000 mid-market clients. Its unified platform covers payroll, HR, time and labor, benefits, and spend management, generating recurring and other revenue of about $1.65 billion in its latest fiscal year.
In recent months, Paylocity shares have climbed toward the $170 area, near the upper end of a 52-week range that spans from about $93 to $172. The company closed its fiscal year with recurring revenue up roughly 12% and reported strong profitability, including expanded adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP measure of operating earnings) and significant share repurchases. Product catalysts such as the launch of Ignite AI, the acquisition of AI-powered recruiting firm Grayscale, and the Elevate managed-services offering have reinforced growth expectations. With a beta near 0.50, the stock has historically exhibited far less volatility than the broader market, though its relative strength indicator has recently reached elevated, overbought levels.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies compete for different customer budgets. Autodesk's addressable market is tied to construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure spending, which can be cyclical and sensitive to interest rates and economic conditions. Paylocity's revenue is more closely linked to employment levels among small and mid-sized businesses, giving it a steadier, consumption-style recurring profile.
On growth, Autodesk currently expands faster, with trailing revenue growth near 18% versus Paylocity's roughly 11%. On valuation, both trade at comparable forward price-to-earnings multiples in the high teens, though Autodesk's higher gross margin and larger free cash flow base give it a different profit scale. Risk profiles differ sharply: Autodesk's beta near 1.33 implies higher systematic risk, while Paylocity's beta near 0.50 suggests defensive behavior. Momentum also diverges—Paylocity sits near 52-week highs with a high relative strength reading, while Autodesk trades well off its highs, potentially leaving more room for a mean-reversion or catch-up trade depending on the market environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely show a modest preference for PCTY in the current environment. Paylocity's trend consistency—trading near 52-week highs with sustained positive momentum—combined with its low beta and reliable recurring-revenue growth offers a comparatively stable setup. Autodesk's faster growth and cheaper-looking forward valuation are attractive, but its higher volatility and position below recent highs suggest a less clearly established trend. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast: shifts in employment data, interest rates, or upcoming earnings could quickly change the relative positioning of either stock.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADSK is a StrongBuy and PCTY is a StrongBuy.
ADSK's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADSK as a result. In 52 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
ADSK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +2.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in 209 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADSK entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (15.581) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.734). P/E Ratio (32.458) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.183). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.797) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.024) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
PCTY's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PCTY turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where PCTY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PCTY as a result. In 54 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
PCTY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PCTY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +4.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PCTY advanced for three days, in 174 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PCTY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
PCTY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PCTY entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PCTY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.697) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.734). P/E Ratio (35.509) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.183). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.153) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.558) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PCTY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADSK | PCTY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 44 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 19 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PCTY's Valuation (81) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (83). This means that PCTY’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
PCTY's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (100). This means that PCTY’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADSK's SMR Rating (19) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as PCTY (44). This means that ADSK’s stock grew similarly to PCTY’s over the last 12 months.
PCTY's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (43). This means that PCTY’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
PCTY's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Packaged Software industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADSK (88). This means that PCTY’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
| ADSK | PCTY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 8 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 68% | 25 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADSK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PCTY’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ADSK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PCTY’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADSK’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PCTY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADSK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PCTY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADSK (@Packaged Software) experienced а +3.99% price change this week, while PCTY (@Packaged Software) price change was +6.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was +2.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADSK is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
PCTY is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (+2.81% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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ADSK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADSK has been closely correlated with ADBE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADSK jumps, then ADBE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADSK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK | 100% | +4.13% | ||
| ADBE - ADSK | 72% Closely correlated | +6.07% | ||
| BSY - ADSK | 71% Closely correlated | +2.74% | ||
| APPF - ADSK | 68% Closely correlated | +0.06% | ||
| GWRE - ADSK | 67% Closely correlated | +4.26% | ||
| PCOR - ADSK | 67% Closely correlated | +2.27% | ||
More | ||||
PCTY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PCTY has been closely correlated with ADP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PCTY jumps, then ADP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PCTY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCTY | 100% | +4.93% | ||
| ADP - PCTY | 78% Closely correlated | +4.56% | ||
| PAYX - PCTY | 74% Closely correlated | +5.61% | ||
| WDAY - PCTY | 70% Closely correlated | +3.46% | ||
| VERX - PCTY | 67% Closely correlated | +4.43% | ||
| MANH - PCTY | 67% Closely correlated | +2.69% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| BSV | 76.84 | 0.31 | +0.41% |
| Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) | |||
| TACU | 28.15 | N/A | N/A |
| T. Rowe Price Active Core U.S. Equity ETF (TACU) | |||
| XJAN | 39.42 | -0.10 | -0.24% |
| FT Vest U.S. Equity Enhance & Moderate Buffer ETF - January (XJAN) | |||
| JHEM | 37.25 | -1.04 | -2.72% |
| John Hancock Multifactor Emerging Markets ETF (JHEM) | |||
| HBTA | 31.49 | -1.10 | -3.38% |
| Horizon Expedition Plus ETF | |||