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ADTN vs AVNW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) vs. Aviat Networks (AVNW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Divergent momentum: ADTN has delivered accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion, while AVNW has posted modest single-digit growth with compressing margins.
- Different niches: ADTN competes in fiber, optical, and access networking; AVNW focuses on microwave wireless transport and private networks.
- Growth catalysts: ADTN is leveraged to broadband funding (BEAD) and AI data-center infrastructure; AVNW is expanding multi-dwelling unit (MDU) and private-network offerings.
- Relative performance gap: ADTN has shown strong long-term price appreciation, while AVNW has underperformed its industry over the past year.
- Risk profile differs: ADTN still posts narrow GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) losses, while AVNW faces component-cost inflation and project-driven revenue volatility.
Introduction
Both ADTN and AVNW supply the networking equipment that underpins modern connectivity, yet they serve fundamentally different segments of that market. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders evaluating two contrasting paths within the communications-equipment sector: one riding a fiber and optical recovery, the other working through a margin squeeze while diversifying into private wireless networks. Understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles can help clarify which name currently offers the more compelling setup.
ADTN Overview and Recent Performance
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) is a global provider of open, disaggregated networking and communications solutions spanning fiber broadband access, optical transport, and subscriber-edge equipment. It is also the majority shareholder of Adtran Networks SE, formerly ADVA Optical Networking.
Recent market activity has been defined by a sharp acceleration in demand. Revenue rose 15.5% year over year in the most recent quarter, following strong double-digit gains in prior periods, driven by optical networking and access solutions across North America and Europe. Margins have expanded meaningfully, with non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) gross margin improving and operating margin turning positive. Analysts have responded by raising price targets, citing improved profitability, balance-sheet repair, and a constructive broadband cycle.
Sentiment has been supported by several structural catalysts: U.S. Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) funding, European "vendor replacement" trends tied to Huawei exits, and new products such as the LiteWave800 targeting AI-driven data-center infrastructure. Longer-term shareholder returns have been strong, though the company still reports narrow GAAP losses and faces exposure to currency swings and dependence on broadband infrastructure spending.
AVNW Overview and Recent Performance
Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW) is a specialist in microwave wireless transport and access solutions, serving mobile service providers, private network operators, utilities, and government and defense customers across more than 170 countries. Private networks now account for roughly 45% of its business.
In recent weeks, Aviat has shown a mixed picture. It completed its sixth consecutive year of revenue growth, but the pace was modest at roughly 1.2% year over year, and fiscal-year revenue came in near the low end of guidance. Gross margin contracted materially, falling from about 34% to roughly 31%, as component shortages and price inflation in memory, printed circuit boards, capacitors, and FPGAs (field-programmable gate arrays) pressured profitability. Management attributed part of the decline to uneven project timing in international markets, where Latin America and Asia Pacific sales softened.
Offsetting these pressures, backlog rose 14% year over year, and the company is scaling a multi-dwelling unit (MDU) opportunity alongside growing defense and energy demand in the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region. The stock has underperformed its industry over the past year despite several analyst Buy ratings, reflecting lingering skepticism about margin recovery and a back-end-loaded fiscal outlook.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between ADTN and AVNW lies in their growth and profitability trajectories. ADTN is benefiting from a cyclical rebound in fiber and optical spending, translating strong revenue growth into expanding margins and improved operating leverage. AVNW, by comparison, is growing only modestly while its gross margin is under pressure from component inflation.
Their business models also diverge. ADTN is exposed to large-scale, multi-year broadband buildouts and AI-related data-center networking, which can provide durable demand but also carries customer and funding-cycle concentration risk. AVNW is more project-driven, with revenue tied to mobile network deployments and government/utility contracts, making quarterly results more volatile but also diversifying it into recurring private-network and MDU opportunities.
From a sentiment standpoint, ADTN has enjoyed rising analyst targets and strong relative performance, while AVNW has lagged its industry despite a healthy backlog and accelerating fiscal guidance. Both names carry execution risk: ADTN must sustain margin gains and convert catalysts into profit, while AVNW must prove that price increases and cost controls can restore margins without dampening demand.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward ADTN. The stock exhibits stronger recent revenue momentum, improving margins, and a clearer alignment with durable catalysts like broadband funding and AI infrastructure demand. AVNW's backlog growth and diversification are constructive, but compressing margins and lagging relative performance introduce greater near-term uncertainty. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: AI models weigh trend persistence and stability, and ADTN's more consistent improvement pattern currently scores more favorably.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADTN is a Buy and AVNW is a StrongBuy.
ADTN's RSI Indicator descends into oversold zone
The RSI Oscillator for ADTN moved into overbought territory on November 03, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +6.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADTN advanced for three days, in 217 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
ADTN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ADTN as a result. In 78 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ADTN turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 81%.
ADTN moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADTN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Aroon Indicator for ADTN entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.184) is normal, around the industry mean (6.313). P/E Ratio (-18.071) is within average values for comparable stocks, (4.917). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.071) settles around the average of (0.110) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.501) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ADTN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADTN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
AVNW in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026
AVNW moved above its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 38 of 46 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AVNW as a result. In 68 of 104 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AVNW just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where AVNW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +1.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AVNW advanced for three days, in 209 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
AVNW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 94 of 155 cases where AVNW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 59 cases where AVNW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The 10-day moving average for AVNW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AVNW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AVNW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.963) is normal, around the industry mean (6.313). AVNW has a moderately high P/E Ratio (100.600) as compared to the industry average of (4.917). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.110) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.598) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AVNW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
ADTN | AVNW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 93 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADTN's Valuation (14) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVNW (78). This means that ADTN’s stock grew somewhat faster than AVNW’s over the last 12 months.
ADTN's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as AVNW (100). This means that ADTN’s stock grew similarly to AVNW’s over the last 12 months.
AVNW's SMR Rating (89) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as ADTN (94). This means that AVNW’s stock grew similarly to ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
AVNW's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as ADTN (80). This means that AVNW’s stock grew similarly to ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
ADTN's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for AVNW (93). This means that ADTN’s stock grew significantly faster than AVNW’s over the last 12 months.
| ADTN | AVNW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 77% | 7 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 3 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADTN’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while AVNW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ADTN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- AVNW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADTN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while AVNW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADTN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- AVNW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
ADTN (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а -26.45% price change this week, while AVNW (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was -1.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was -6.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.94%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADTN is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
AVNW is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (-6.11% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
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ADTN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADTN has been loosely correlated with AAOI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ADTN jumps, then AAOI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADTN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 100% | -19.43% | ||
| AAOI - ADTN | 50% Loosely correlated | +2.35% | ||
| VIAV - ADTN | 49% Loosely correlated | +8.09% | ||
| HLIT - ADTN | 49% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| INSG - ADTN | 47% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| LITE - ADTN | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.62% | ||
More | ||||
AVNW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVNW has been loosely correlated with AUDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVNW jumps, then AUDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVNW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVNW | 100% | +1.67% | ||
| AUDC - AVNW | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.73% | ||
| ADTN - AVNW | 41% Loosely correlated | -19.43% | ||
| HLIT - AVNW | 33% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| TSAT - AVNW | 32% Poorly correlated | +7.90% | ||
| INSG - AVNW | 30% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
More | ||||
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