How Can Commodities Be Used as a Hedge Within a Portfolio?

In the world of finance, the term "commodities" often conjures up images of trading floors filled with chaos, where traders frantically shout orders and make hand signals to buy and sell various raw materials, agricultural goods, and energy products. While the chaos may be accurate, these commodities play a unique role in investment portfolios, serving as a valuable hedge against inflation. This article explores the importance of commodities as a hedge within a portfolio, their role in diversification, and the various ways investors can incorporate them into their investment strategies.

Understanding Commodities

Commodities are tangible goods that share a common trait – they are relatively uniform in quality and utility, regardless of their source. For example, when you purchase an ear of corn or a bag of wheat flour at a supermarket, you likely don't consider where they were grown or milled. This uniformity makes them interchangeable, and this broad definition encompasses a wide range of products that people generally do not distinguish by brand. However, investors often focus on a specific group of basic goods that have global demand, such as raw materials for manufactured finished products.

Commodities can be categorized into two main groups: hard and soft commodities. Hard commodities require mining or drilling, including metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, and energy products like crude oil, natural gas, and unleaded gasoline. On the other hand, soft commodities encompass products that are grown or ranched, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and cattle.

Commodities as a Diversifier

One of the key reasons to include commodities in a portfolio is diversification. Commodities tend to have a low to negative correlation with traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds. Correlation measures the linear relationship between two variables, with a range of -1 to 1. A positive correlation means that when one variable rises or falls, the other does the same. In contrast, a negative correlation means that when one variable rises, the other falls, and vice versa. Typically, U.S. equities have a positive correlation with each other, while commodities, often seen as a hedge against unexpected inflation, exhibit a low to negative correlation with other assets.

By incorporating commodities into a portfolio alongside less volatile assets, investors can effectively reduce overall portfolio risk due to this negative correlation. This is particularly valuable during times of rising inflation, as commodities tend to benefit from such environments.

The Role of Benchmarks

Benchmarking is crucial for evaluating portfolio performance, assessing risk tolerance, and setting return expectations. In the realm of commodities, the S&P GSCI Total Return Index serves as a broad benchmark. It encompasses futures contracts for various commodities, including oil, wheat, corn, aluminum, live cattle, and gold. This index is weighted by the significance of each commodity in the global economy, offering a more accurate representation of the commodity market compared to similar indexes.

Historically, commodities have offered competitive returns, but they are also known for their volatility. The S&P GSCI's annual performance has shown a negative trend in seven out of ten years from 2011 to 2020. This has led some investors to question the role of commodities in their portfolios and whether their value may continue to decline in the future. However, it's essential to recognize that commodities' performance can be influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics.

Volatility in the Commodity Markets

Supply and demand dynamics play a pivotal role in determining commodity prices. Factors like harvest yields, weather conditions, and global events can lead to fluctuations in commodity prices. For instance, a bumper harvest can lead to lower prices, while a drought can drive prices higher due to concerns about future supply shortages. Similarly, cold weather increases the demand for natural gas for heating, raising its prices, while warm spells can depress prices.

Because supply and demand for commodities change frequently, commodities tend to be more volatile compared to stocks, bonds, and other assets. Notably, certain commodities, like gold, have displayed greater stability, serving as a reserve asset for central banks to hedge against market volatility. However, even gold can exhibit volatility at times, and other commodities may switch between periods of stability and volatility depending on market dynamics.

Historical Perspective of Commodity Trading

Commodity trading has a rich history dating back to the earliest commodities exchanges in Amsterdam during the 16th century and Osaka, Japan, in the 17th century. Formal commodity futures trading began in the mid-19th century at institutions like the Chicago Board of Trade, paving the way for what would become the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Many of these early commodities trading markets were established by producers with shared interests. By combining their resources, producers ensured orderly markets and avoided cutthroat competition. Initially, these markets focused on single goods, but they gradually evolved into more comprehensive commodities trading venues, encompassing a wide array of goods in a single marketplace.

Investing in Commodities

Investors have several avenues for investing in commodities:

1. Direct Investment: This approach involves acquiring the physical commodity and arranging storage. Selling a commodity necessitates finding a buyer and managing delivery logistics, which can be more complex for certain commodities.

2. Commodity Futures Contracts: These contracts provide direct exposure to changes in commodity prices. Some ETFs also offer commodity exposure. Investors trading futures contracts typically need a brokerage account or a stockbroker offering futures trading services.

3. Commodity ETFs: Many individual investors prefer ETFs with commodity exposure. Some commodity ETFs purchase the physical commodities and issue shares to represent a specific amount of a particular commodity. Others rely on futures contracts, taking into account storage costs.

4. Commodities-Related Stocks: Investors can opt to invest in companies that produce commodities, such as those involved in extracting crude oil and natural gas or growing and selling crops. The key consideration is how much of the commodity the company produces, as the stock price may not necessarily reflect the commodity's price.

Hedging Against Inflation with Commodities

Inflation, characterized by a general increase in prices, has long been a concern for investors. Commodities are viewed as a natural hedge against inflation because they are integral inputs in manufacturing processes and are consumed by households and businesses. Consequently, when prices rise across the board, the prices of commodities typically follow suit. Historically, gold has been considered the quintessential inflation-hedge commodity.

Diversification with Hard and Soft Commodities

The commodities market includes both hard and soft commodities. Hard commodities, derived from mining or extraction processes, encompass metals, ores, and petroleum products. In contrast, soft commodities are those grown, including agricultural products. Diversifying a portfolio with both hard and soft commodities can help mitigate risk and enhance overall stability.

Allocating to Commodities in a Portfolio

Experts often recommend allocating around 5-10% of a portfolio to a mix of commodities. Investors with lower risk tolerance may opt for a smaller allocation. The exact percentage should be tailored to individual financial goals and the level of risk an investor is willing to bear.

Commodities, often associated with chaos and shouting on trading floors, offer a unique value proposition for investors. They serve as a hedge against inflation and provide diversification in investment portfolios due to their low to negative correlation with traditional asset classes. Understanding the role of commodities, the various ways to invest in them, and their impact on portfolio diversification is essential for investors looking to enhance their investment strategies. While commodities may exhibit volatility, their historical role as a hedge and diversifier underscores their significance in portfolio construction.

Tickeron's Offerings

The fundamental premise of technical analysis lies in identifying recurring price patterns and trends, which can then be used to forecast the course of upcoming market trends. Our journey commenced with the development of AI-based Engines, such as the Pattern Search Engine, Real-Time Patterns, and the Trend Prediction Engine, which empower us to conduct a comprehensive analysis of market trends. We have delved into nearly all established methodologies, including price patterns, trend indicators, oscillators, and many more, by leveraging neural networks and deep historical backtests. As a consequence, we've been able to accumulate a suite of trading algorithms that collaboratively allow our AI Robots to effectively pinpoint pivotal moments of shifts in market trends.