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ADTN vs LITE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) vs. Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADTN (ADTRAN Holdings) is a networking and communications equipment supplier gaining traction from broadband expansion, while LITE (Lumentum Holdings) is a photonics and optical components maker riding the AI data-center buildout.
- LITE has delivered dramatically stronger recent revenue growth and momentum, with quarterly sales more than doubling year over year, versus mid-single-digit to mid-teens growth for ADTN.
- ADTN offers a turnaround and margin-repair story at a far lower valuation, while LITE trades at a steep premium tied to AI infrastructure expectations.
- The two companies operate in different parts of the networking value chain, with limited direct overlap but shared exposure to optical and data-center demand.
- On observable trend, stability, and catalyst factors, Tickeron's AI framework would likely lean toward LITE for momentum, while viewing ADTN as a value-oriented alternative.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two technology suppliers that sit at different points of the same broad connectivity theme. ADTN, or ADTRAN Holdings, provides open, disaggregated networking equipment for broadband and fiber networks. LITE, or Lumentum Holdings, manufactures lasers and optical components that move data through the cloud and AI data centers. Comparing them is relevant for investors weighing a value-oriented, turnaround-driven network equipment story against a high-growth, AI-infrastructure play. The contrast in growth rates, valuations, and risk profiles makes this a useful lens on how market positioning and relative performance diverge across the broader networking and optics sector.
ADTN Overview and Recent Performance
ADTRAN Holdings, the parent of Adtran, Inc. and majority shareholder of Adtran Networks SE, supplies networking and communications solutions spanning cloud edge to subscriber edge, serving service providers, enterprises, and government organizations. Its growth has been driven by fiber and broadband buildouts, including U.S. government funding initiatives such as BEAD (Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment), European vendor-replacement trends, and an expanding optical networking portfolio.
In recent quarters, ADTN has shown improving execution. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 15.5% year over year to $286.1 million, with non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings of $0.14 per share. A subsequent quarter delivered roughly 6% top-line growth, with a sharp jump in optical networking sales. Non-GAAP gross margin has climbed into the low-40% range, and the company has returned to positive non-GAAP operating income. The shares have gained strongly over the past year, though the company still posts a narrow GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss, reflecting ongoing reinvestment. Sentiment has been supported by margin repair and a new LiteWave800 solution aimed at AI-driven data-center infrastructure.
LITE Overview and Recent Performance
Lumentum Holdings designs and sells optical and photonic products, including lasers, transceivers, and optical circuit switches, used in cloud, AI, and telecommunications networks. Its growth is concentrated in AI data-center connectivity, where demand for high-speed 800G and emerging 1.6T transceivers, electro-absorption modulated lasers (EMLs), continuous-wave (CW) lasers, and pump lasers has accelerated sharply.
In its most recent fiscal quarter, LITE reported revenue of $1.01 billion, up roughly 109% year over year, marking its eighth straight quarter of growth. Non-GAAP gross margin reached about 50%, and non-GAAP operating margin expanded to the mid-30% range. The company has guided meaningfully higher for the following quarter and cited record shipments, sold-out pump laser capacity, and momentum in next-generation architectures such as near-packaged optics (NPO) and co-packaged optics (CPO). This performance has driven substantial share-price appreciation, with LITE among the strongest performers in the optical networking group in 2026, though the valuation has expanded in tandem with the rally.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two companies is growth versus value. LITE is a direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure cycle, with hyperscaler demand for faster optical interconnects driving triple-digit revenue growth, rapid margin expansion, and a premium valuation. Its risks center on concentration in a single high-growth theme, heavy capital investment, and the possibility that demand or pricing assumptions are already reflected in the share price.
ADTN, by comparison, offers a steadier, turnaround-driven profile. Its growth is tied to broadband funding cycles and fiber buildouts, which are more predictable but slower than AI-driven optical demand. ADTN trades at a much lower multiple and carries less momentum-driven volatility, but it also faces thinner margins, exposure to foreign-exchange swings, and a longer path to consistent GAAP profitability. In sector terms, both companies participate in optical networking, yet LITE skews toward cloud and AI components while ADTN skews toward carrier and access infrastructure, producing different market positioning and risk profiles.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI framework would likely favor LITE at present. The stock exhibits stronger trend consistency, accelerating revenue growth, expanding margins, and multiple active catalysts tied to AI data-center demand. ADTN shows improving fundamentals but with less momentum and a lower-growth demand backdrop. That said, LITE's elevated valuation introduces greater downside sensitivity if AI-related demand softens, while ADTN's lower multiple and steady broadband exposure may appeal to more conservative positioning. The relative outcome is probabilistic and dependent on whether AI infrastructure spending sustains its current trajectory.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADTN is a Hold and LITE is a StrongBuy.
ADTN sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
ADTN saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 15, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 47 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ADTN as a result. In 75 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
ADTN moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADTN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
ADTN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADTN entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ADTN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADTN advanced for three days, in 218 of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.058) is normal, around the industry mean (7.180). P/E Ratio (-23.036) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.784). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.056) settles around the average of (0.131) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.501) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ADTN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADTN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
LITE in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LITE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LITE as a result. In 62 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LITE turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
LITE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LITE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for LITE's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LITE advanced for three days, in 265 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
LITE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 229 of 288 cases where LITE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LITE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (14.536) is normal, around the industry mean (7.180). P/E Ratio (-8.095) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.784). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.080) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.131) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (22.779) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ADTN | LITE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 61 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADTN's Valuation (14) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LITE (61). This means that ADTN’s stock grew somewhat faster than LITE’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for ADTN (100). This means that LITE’s stock grew significantly faster than ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
ADTN's SMR Rating (94) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as LITE (100). This means that ADTN’s stock grew similarly to LITE’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADTN (82). This means that LITE’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
ADTN's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for LITE (97). This means that ADTN’s stock grew significantly faster than LITE’s over the last 12 months.
| ADTN | LITE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 17 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 77% | 7 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 80% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADTN’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while LITE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ADTN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- LITE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADTN’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LITE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADTN’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- LITE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADTN (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а -1.23% price change this week, while LITE (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was -13.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was -6.48%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -14.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was -17.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADTN is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
LITE is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (-6.48% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
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ADTN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADTN has been loosely correlated with AAOI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ADTN jumps, then AAOI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADTN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 100% | -3.59% | ||
| AAOI - ADTN | 49% Loosely correlated | -11.96% | ||
| HLIT - ADTN | 48% Loosely correlated | -5.96% | ||
| VIAV - ADTN | 48% Loosely correlated | -14.38% | ||
| INSG - ADTN | 46% Loosely correlated | -4.99% | ||
| LITE - ADTN | 44% Loosely correlated | -11.54% | ||
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LITE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LITE has been closely correlated with CIEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LITE jumps, then CIEN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LITE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | 100% | -11.54% | ||
| CIEN - LITE | 71% Closely correlated | -10.71% | ||
| AAOI - LITE | 67% Closely correlated | -11.96% | ||
| VIAV - LITE | 64% Loosely correlated | -14.38% | ||
| NOK - LITE | 48% Loosely correlated | -14.81% | ||
| ADTN - LITE | 44% Loosely correlated | -3.59% | ||
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