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ADTN vs LITE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) vs. Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- This is a contrast of scale and momentum: ADTN is a roughly $530 million networking-equipment maker, while LITE is a roughly $49 billion AI-optics supplier that has re-rated sharply over the past year.
- ADTN posted roughly flat revenue in its most recent quarter as supply constraints and working-capital pressures weighed on results and cash flow.
- LITE reported fiscal first-quarter revenue up about 136% year over year and announced an agreement to be acquired by Marvell Technology in an all-stock transaction.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, revenue momentum, and exposure to AI-driven optical demand, Tickeron's AI currently favors LITE over ADTN.
- For more detail, explore ADTN Major News and ADTN Today's Price Move, as well as LITE Major News and LITE Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI evaluates opportunities like this one in real time, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Both ADTN and LITE sit within the broad optical and communications-equipment universe, yet they occupy very different positions within it. One is a small-cap broadband and networking supplier navigating a supply-constrained recovery, while the other is a large-cap photonics leader riding a surge in artificial-intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending. For traders and investors weighing relative performance, market positioning, and growth catalysts, this stock comparison illustrates how two companies in adjacent markets can present sharply contrasting risk-and-reward profiles in the current environment.
ADTN Overview and Recent Performance
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) provides open, disaggregated networking and communications platforms spanning fiber access, optical transport, and subscriber solutions, and it is the majority shareholder of Adtran Networks SE (formerly ADVA Optical Networking). In recent quarters, the company has leaned into opportunities tied to broadband funding programs and, increasingly, into intra-data-center AI connectivity with products such as its LiteWave 800 platform.
Recent market activity, however, has reflected a more cautious tone. In its most recent quarter, revenue was roughly flat year over year at about $281 million, and management cited supply constraints—particularly in optical components, lasers, and memory—as limiting how much product it could ship. Non-GAAP operating margin (a profitability measure that excludes certain one-time items) came in around 5%, while operating cash flow and free cash flow turned negative as working capital rose. The shares have traded well below their 52-week high, and analyst price targets were trimmed during recent months even as several firms retained constructive ratings. Sentiment has been shaped by a mix of solid demand signals—including hyperscaler (large cloud provider) revenue growth of more than 200% year over year—and persistent execution and balance-sheet constraints.
LITE Overview and Recent Performance
Lumentum Holdings, Inc. (LITE) designs and manufactures optical and photonic components and systems, including lasers, optical modules, and wavelength-management technologies, with a growing focus on the data-center and AI infrastructure markets. The company has emerged as one of the more direct beneficiaries of rising demand for high-speed optical connectivity.
Its fiscal first-quarter results underscored that momentum: revenue of about $1.26 billion was up roughly 136% year over year, and non-GAAP earnings per share reached $4.57, with a non-GAAP operating margin above 42%. The company also guided to continued sequential growth and disclosed a second major co-packaged optics design win backed by more than $5 billion in purchase commitments. The shares have climbed substantially over the past year, though they have also been volatile. A defining recent development was the announcement that Marvell Technology agreed to acquire Lumentum in an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $115 billion including debt, with Lumentum shareholders set to receive a fixed ratio of Marvell shares. That structure has tied the stock's near-term behavior to both Marvell's share price and the expected timing of the deal's completion.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental difference is market positioning. ADTN is tied to service-provider broadband and enterprise networking, a market with steadier but more cyclical demand and thinner margins. LITE, by contrast, is leveraged to hyperscaler and AI data-center buildouts, which have driven accelerating revenue and much higher operating leverage—but also greater valuation and concentration risk.
On momentum, the gap is wide: LITE has delivered triple-digit year-over-year revenue growth and strong profitability, whereas ADTN has contended with flat top-line growth, supply-chain friction, and negative free cash flow. Risk profiles differ accordingly. ADTN faces execution, balance-sheet, and margin headwinds but trades at a fraction of its 52-week high with a low market capitalization. LITE carries merger-arbitrage, regulatory, and market-risk exposure tied to its pending acquisition, alongside the broader risk that any slowdown in AI capital spending could weigh on its premium valuation. In short, this is a trade-off between a smaller, turnaround-oriented name and a larger, higher-growth name whose return now depends partly on deal dynamics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing observable factors such as trend consistency, revenue trajectory, profitability, and catalyst strength, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward LITE over ADTN. The preference reflects LITE's more established upward trend, its accelerating AI-driven optical demand, and the clarity provided by a defined acquisition structure, relative to ADTN's still-forming recovery amid supply and cash-flow pressures. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast, and the ranking could shift as earnings, deal milestones, and broader market conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADTN is a Hold and LITE is a Hold.
ADTN's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for ADTN entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 244 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 212 of the 244 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ADTN as a result. In 76 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ADTN turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
ADTN moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADTN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ADTN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +9.32% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADTN advanced for three days, in 209 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
ADTN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.542) is normal, around the industry mean (5.210). P/E Ratio (-14.429) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.688). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.089) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.501) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ADTN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADTN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
LITE's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for LITE entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 185 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 156 of the 185 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LITE as a result. In 65 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LITE turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
LITE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LITE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LITE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LITE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +16.96% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LITE advanced for three days, in 264 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
LITE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 26 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.403) is normal, around the industry mean (5.210). P/E Ratio (-5.794) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.688). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.080) is also within normal values, averaging (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (22.779) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LITE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ADTN | LITE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 52 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 26 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADTN's Valuation (14) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LITE (52). This means that ADTN’s stock grew somewhat faster than LITE’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's Profit vs Risk Rating (48) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADTN (100). This means that LITE’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
ADTN's SMR Rating (94) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as LITE (100). This means that ADTN’s stock grew similarly to LITE’s over the last 12 months.
LITE's Price Growth Rating (64) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as ADTN (91). This means that LITE’s stock grew similarly to ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
ADTN's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for LITE (98). This means that ADTN’s stock grew significantly faster than LITE’s over the last 12 months.
| ADTN | LITE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 4 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 78% | 8 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 84% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADTN’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while LITE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ADTN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- LITE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADTN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LITE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADTN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LITE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ADTN (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а -0.85% price change this week, while LITE (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was +3.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was -0.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.87%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADTN is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
LITE is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (-0.51% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
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ADTN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADTN has been loosely correlated with HLIT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ADTN jumps, then HLIT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADTN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 100% | +6.35% | ||
| HLIT - ADTN | 51% Loosely correlated | +3.40% | ||
| AAOI - ADTN | 50% Loosely correlated | +15.60% | ||
| LITE - ADTN | 48% Loosely correlated | +10.67% | ||
| VIAV - ADTN | 47% Loosely correlated | +6.42% | ||
| INSG - ADTN | 44% Loosely correlated | +6.82% | ||
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LITE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LITE has been closely correlated with CIEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LITE jumps, then CIEN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LITE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | 100% | +10.67% | ||
| CIEN - LITE | 74% Closely correlated | +8.80% | ||
| AAOI - LITE | 71% Closely correlated | +15.60% | ||
| VIAV - LITE | 66% Closely correlated | +6.42% | ||
| ADTN - LITE | 48% Loosely correlated | +6.35% | ||
| HLIT - LITE | 44% Loosely correlated | +3.40% | ||
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