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AER vs MA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AerCap Holdings (AER) vs. Mastercard (MA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AER (AerCap Holdings) is the world's largest aircraft leasing company, while MA (Mastercard) is a global payments technology leader — two fundamentally different business models with different risk and growth profiles.
- AerCap trades at a notably lower valuation multiple, reflecting its capital-intensive, cyclical industrial exposure, while Mastercard commands a premium valuation supported by high-margin, recurring network economics.
- Recent market activity shows AerCap posting record adjusted earnings and aggressive share repurchases, while Mastercard has rallied toward all-time highs on strong results and digital-payments momentum.
- Key contrasts include sector exposure (aviation versus financial technology), growth drivers, dividend profiles, and sensitivity to fuel prices, travel demand, and consumer spending.
- For additional context, explore AER Major News and AER Today's Price Move, as well as MA Major News and MA Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-powered strategies are positioning across both tickers and the broader market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors weighing AER and MA are effectively comparing two very different engines of the global economy. AerCap Holdings is a capital-intensive aircraft lessor whose fortunes track aviation supply, fuel costs, and fleet demand. Mastercard is an asset-light payments network whose results hinge on consumer spending, cross-border activity, and the digitization of commerce. This stock comparison is relevant to traders seeking relative performance signals and to longer-term investors evaluating market positioning, growth durability, and risk tolerance across cyclical industrials and high-quality financial technology.
AER Overview and Recent Performance
AER, or AerCap Holdings N.V., is the industry's largest aircraft leasing company, owning, managing, and financing commercial aircraft, engines, and helicopters. Headquartered in Dublin, the company benefits from persistent aircraft supply constraints and sustained air-travel demand, which have supported strong lease rates and elevated gains on asset sales.
In recent weeks, AerCap has reported record adjusted earnings, driven by healthy lease rents and robust sale activity, while raising its full-year earnings guidance and authorizing a new $1 billion share repurchase program. Management has highlighted an 87% lease-extension rate, strong liquidity, and low leverage as signs of resilience. However, the stock remains sensitive to jet-fuel prices and airline profitability, factors that can influence sentiment in the near term even as multi-year fleet planning remains supportive.
MA Overview and Recent Performance
MA, or Mastercard Incorporated, operates a global payments network that facilitates transactions between cardholders, merchants, and financial institutions without taking on credit risk. Its revenue comes largely from network assessments and value-added services, giving it an asset-light, high-margin profile.
Recent market activity has favored Mastercard, with shares climbing toward all-time highs after a string of better-than-expected quarterly results. Growth in value-added services, commercial payments, and cross-border volumes has reinforced its premium valuation, and the company has advanced its digital strategy through stablecoin and open-banking initiatives, including the completed acquisition of stablecoin payments firm BVNK. Analysts have raised price targets into the high-$600s and beyond, though the stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 30 leaves comparatively little room for error around upcoming earnings.
Trending AI Robots
For traders who prefer a systematic approach, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a focused selection of AI trading bots from a much larger library of hundreds of automated strategies that trade thousands of different tickers. Only the bots most suited to current market conditions earn a place in this curated section, where users can compare trading styles, timeframes, performance statistics, and the specific tickers each bot trades. Because every bot operates differently, the page helps investors identify strategies aligned with their own objectives and risk tolerance. Explore Trending AI Robots to review the current lineup.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in business model and risk exposure. AER is capital-intensive, carrying a substantial debt load against a portfolio of physical assets, and its returns depend on aircraft values, lease demand, and interest costs. MA is asset-light, generating high return on equity with minimal credit exposure and a strong free-cash-flow profile.
Growth drivers also diverge. AerCap benefits from aircraft undersupply, sale-leaseback opportunities, and disciplined capital returns, but it faces cyclical fuel-cost and airline-credit risks. Mastercard benefits from the secular shift to digital payments, cross-border commerce, and commercial B2B (business-to-business) flows, though it carries regulatory and competitive risks, including interchange scrutiny. On market sentiment, Mastercard's premium multiple reflects its consistency and growth, while AerCap's lower multiple reflects its cyclicality — meaning the two appeal to different investor profiles.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MA for trend-following strategies, given its sustained upward momentum, consistent estimate beats, and defensive, high-margin economics. However, AER may present a more attractive risk-reward profile for value- and catalyst-oriented models, supported by record earnings, aggressive buybacks, and a comparatively low valuation. The relative appeal depends on each bot's strategy, timeframe, and risk parameters rather than any single absolute judgment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AER is a Buy and MA is a Buy.
AER in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AER crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AER as a result. In 61 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
AER moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AER advanced for three days, in 227 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AER declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
AER broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AER’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.395) is normal, around the industry mean (2.200). P/E Ratio (7.876) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.462). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.300) is also within normal values, averaging (0.988). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.639) is also within normal values, averaging (1.703).
Momentum Indicator for MA turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MA saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 53 of the 89 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MA just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where MA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
MA moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +3.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MA advanced for three days, in 174 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 185 of 358 cases where MA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
MA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MA's P/B Ratio (102.745) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.811). MA has a moderately high P/E Ratio (36.159) as compared to the industry average of (5.984). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.484) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.181) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.472) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
AER | MA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 46 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 10 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 19 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AER's Valuation (78) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as MA (100). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to MA’s over the last 12 months.
AER's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as MA (12). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to MA’s over the last 12 months.
MA's SMR Rating (10) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AER (48). This means that MA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AER’s over the last 12 months.
MA's Price Growth Rating (19) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AER (42). This means that MA’s stock grew similarly to AER’s over the last 12 months.
AER's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as MA (47). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to MA’s over the last 12 months.
| AER | MA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 56% | 8 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 35% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AER’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MA’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AER’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AER’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MA’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AER’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MA’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AER (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) experienced а +10.45% price change this week, while MA (@Savings Banks) price change was +7.27% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +4.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.30%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -0.45%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
AER is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
MA is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+4.23% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
@Savings Banks (-0.45% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
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AER and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AER has been closely correlated with AXP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AER jumps, then AXP could also see price increases.
MA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MA has been closely correlated with V. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MA jumps, then V could also see price increases.