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AER vs MA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AerCap Holdings (AER) vs. Mastercard (MA) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- Different business models: AER is the world's largest aircraft lessor, while MA operates a global payments network with no direct credit exposure.
- Valuation gap: AerCap trades near book value with aggressive buybacks, while Mastercard commands a premium earnings multiple of roughly 32 times.
- Growth profile: Mastercard is delivering double-digit revenue and earnings growth; AerCap's earnings are amplified by asset-sale gains and share repurchases.
- Risk exposure: AerCap is sensitive to fuel prices, airline health, and aircraft supply, while Mastercard faces regulatory and fee-compression scrutiny.
- Recent momentum: Mastercard shares have trended toward the upper end of their 52-week range, whereas AerCap has consolidated in recent months.
2) Introduction
Investors weighing a cyclical, asset-heavy aviation finance business against a high-margin payments technology franchise will find a meaningful contrast in AER (AerCap Holdings N.V.) and MA (Mastercard Incorporated). AerCap generates returns by owning, leasing, and selling commercial aircraft, while Mastercard earns fees as a global payment network facilitating transactions across 150 currencies. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and how each company is navigating a shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. The two names appeal to different risk profiles, making the side-by-side analysis useful for both value-oriented and growth-oriented portfolios.
3) AER Overview and Recent Performance
AER, AerCap Holdings, is the global leader in aviation leasing, serving roughly 300 customers with a portfolio of more than 3,500 owned, ordered, or managed aircraft, engines, and helicopters. Its business model combines long-term lease income with opportunistic asset sales that crystallize gains on sale. In recent weeks and quarters, the company has reported record adjusted earnings, driven by a persistent supply-and-demand imbalance in aviation assets as aircraft and engine availability remains constrained.
Recent market activity has been shaped by several factors. AerCap raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance, announced a new $1 billion share repurchase program, and executed significant asset sales at attractive gain-on-sale margins. Management has emphasized an 87% lease extension rate and continued transaction activity despite geopolitical uncertainty. However, the share price has consolidated in recent months, with shorter-term returns lagging its longer-term total shareholder return. Elevated jet fuel prices present a watchpoint, as sustained fuel costs could pressure airline customers over time, even while constrained supply supports aircraft values.
4) MA Overview and Recent Performance
MA, Mastercard Incorporated, operates one of the world's largest payment networks, connecting issuers, merchants, and consumers across both card and newer digital rails. Unlike banks or lenders, Mastercard earns primarily from network assessments and transaction processing fees, giving it an asset-light, high-margin profile with limited direct credit risk. Its value-added services and solutions (VAS) segment, which includes cybersecurity, analytics, and fraud-prevention tools, has become a key growth engine.
In recent quarters, Mastercard has sustained double-digit revenue and adjusted earnings growth, with cross-border volumes and VAS revenue expanding at a healthy pace. The company has advanced its positioning in emerging areas such as agentic commerce (AI-agent-initiated payments), stablecoin settlement, and tokenization, including the completed acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK. Sentiment has been generally constructive, with shares trading near the upper end of their 52-week range and a consensus "Strong Buy" analyst rating. Regulatory scrutiny of card fees and competitive pressures from alternative payment rails remain recurring risk factors.
5) Trending AI Robots
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6) Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest distinction between AER and MA lies in capital intensity and margin structure. AerCap is a balance-sheet-heavy business that carries debt to finance aircraft and relies on lease spreads and asset sales for returns. Mastercard is an asset-light network with pre-tax margins above 50% and returns on equity that are exceptionally high by financial-sector standards. This contrast explains the wide valuation gap: Mastercard trades at a substantial premium earnings multiple, while AerCap trades closer to book value per share.
Growth drivers also differ. AerCap's earnings power is tied to aviation demand, lease extensions, and disciplined capital deployment through buybacks that have reduced share count substantially. Mastercard's growth is driven by the secular shift from cash to digital payments, cross-border travel, and expanding services, with less dependence on any single economic cycle. On the risk side, AerCap faces fuel-cost spikes, airline distress, and residual-value assumptions, whereas Mastercard contends with interchange-fee regulation, stablecoin competition, and antitrust litigation. Sector exposure is equally distinct: AerCap is a cyclical industrial and transportation-finance name, while Mastercard sits at the intersection of financial services and technology.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MA for trend consistency and stability. Mastercard has maintained a more persistent upward trajectory, supported by steady double-digit growth, high margins, and a network position that is difficult to displace. Its exposure to secular digital-payment growth and emerging AI and stablecoin catalysts provides a steadier backdrop than AerCap's more cyclical, fuel-sensitive earnings. That said, AER presents a stronger value-oriented and capital-return case, with its low valuation and aggressive repurchases potentially appealing in a different market regime. The AI's preference would therefore tilt toward Mastercard for stability and trend quality, while recognizing AerCap's distinct appeal for value and income-focused positioning.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AER is a Buy and MA is a StrongBuy.
AER | MA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 16 Undervalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 10 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AER's Valuation (16) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is significantly better than the same rating for MA (100). This means that AER’s stock grew significantly faster than MA’s over the last 12 months.
AER's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as MA (19). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to MA’s over the last 12 months.
MA's SMR Rating (10) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AER (48). This means that MA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AER’s over the last 12 months.
MA's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AER (47). This means that MA’s stock grew similarly to AER’s over the last 12 months.
AER's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as MA (61). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to MA’s over the last 12 months.
| AER | MA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 55% | 13 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 35% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AER’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AER’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AER’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AER’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AER (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) experienced а +2.03% price change this week, while MA (@Savings Banks) price change was +5.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was -1.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.71%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -0.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
AER is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
MA is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (-1.87% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
@Savings Banks (-0.57% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
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AER and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AER has been closely correlated with AXP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AER jumps, then AXP could also see price increases.
MA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MA has been closely correlated with V. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MA jumps, then V could also see price increases.