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AER vs MA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AerCap Holdings (AER) vs. Mastercard (MA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AerCap Holdings (AER) dominates the global aviation leasing industry, delivering record 2025 earnings of $3.8 billion in GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net income, fueled by strong aircraft demand and substantial insurance recoveries.
- Mastercard (MA) continues to ride the secular shift toward digital payments, generating approximately $32.5 billion in 2025 revenue with double-digit growth across both its payment network and value-added services segments.
- AER trades at a notably low P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of roughly 6.5x, reflecting value-oriented positioning, while MA commands a premium forward P/E near 29x, characteristic of high-quality compounders with enduring competitive advantages.
- Both companies return significant capital to shareholders: AER returned $2.6 billion via buybacks and dividends in 2025, while MA maintains a consistent dividend growth track record alongside disciplined share repurchases.
- The two stocks represent fundamentally different risk-return profiles — AER is tied to cyclical aerospace dynamics, whereas MA offers exposure to steady, technology-driven global consumption trends.
Introduction
Investors comparing AER and MA are essentially evaluating two distinct investment philosophies: deep-value cyclical exposure versus premium-quality secular growth. AerCap Holdings, the world's largest aircraft leasing company, sits at the intersection of global aviation demand and capital allocation discipline. Mastercard, a payments technology titan with a market capitalization exceeding $490 billion, represents the ongoing digitization of global commerce. This stock comparison examines how these two names have performed in recent market activity, what has shaped investor sentiment, and how an AI-driven analytical lens might assess their relative positioning given current market conditions. Both seasoned and newer investors may find this side-by-side evaluation useful when considering capital deployment across fundamentally different sectors.
AER Overview and Recent Performance
AerCap Holdings N.V., headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is the global leader in aviation leasing, with a portfolio spanning approximately 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. The company acquires flight equipment from manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing, then leases these assets to airlines worldwide under long-term contracts. In recent months, AER has drawn considerable attention from institutional investors: 54 hedge funds held positions as of the most recent quarter, according to regulatory filings, and analyst price targets average around $170, suggesting meaningful upside from current levels near $147.
Sentiment has been buoyed by several factors. AerCap reported record full-year 2025 results, including GAAP net income of $3.8 billion and adjusted net income of $2.7 billion. Operating cash flow reached $5.4 billion, while the company returned $2.6 billion to shareholders through repurchases of 22.1 million shares and dividend payments. Book value per share rose 19% year-over-year to $112.59. Additionally, the company recovered approximately $1.5 billion in insurance proceeds related to aircraft lost in the Ukraine conflict during 2025, bringing total recoveries since 2023 to roughly $3 billion. On the operational front, AerCap executed 705 transactions during the year and achieved a 27% unlevered gain-on-sale margin. A credit rating upgrade from Fitch and a new $1 billion share repurchase program announced in December further underscored financial strength. In recent weeks, the stock has traded within a range of roughly $142 to $155, reflecting some consolidation after a strong multi-year run.
MA Overview and Recent Performance
Mastercard Incorporated, based in Purchase, New York, operates one of the world's largest payment processing networks, connecting financial institutions, merchants, governments, and consumers across more than 210 countries and territories. The company generates revenue primarily from transaction-based fees on its network and from a growing portfolio of value-added services including cybersecurity, data analytics, consulting, and digital identity solutions. With approximately 3.7 billion cards in circulation globally, MA benefits from powerful network effects that have proven difficult for competitors to replicate.
Recent quarters have showcased Mastercard's consistent growth trajectory. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue reached $8.81 billion, representing 17.6% year-over-year growth, while adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $4.76 beat analyst consensus by over 12%. For the full year, revenue is projected near $32.5 billion, reflecting approximately 15% annual expansion. The value-added services segment has been a particular standout, with net revenue rising 22% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, driven by demand for digital authentication, security solutions, and AI-powered data insights. Cross-border volumes grew 14% on a local currency basis, supported by global travel recovery and new partnership wins with institutions such as Capital One and Scotiabank. Analyst sentiment remains broadly favorable, with major firms including Citigroup, HSBC, Truist Securities, and Wells Fargo maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings, and consensus price targets around $660. The stock has experienced some compression in recent months, partly reflecting regulatory uncertainty in the U.K. and U.S. around interchange fees, as well as a premium valuation that leaves limited room for error.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Comparing AER and MA reveals fundamental contrasts across nearly every investment dimension. AerCap's business model is capital-intensive and asset-heavy, centered on owning and managing physical aircraft that depreciate over time but generate steady contractual lease revenue. Mastercard, by contrast, is an asset-light network business that earns fees on payment flows without taking credit risk, producing operating margins above 55% and ROE (return on equity) that frequently exceeds 100% due to its lean balance sheet structure.
On valuation, the divergence is stark: AER trades at roughly 6.5x trailing earnings and 1.3x book value, metrics that reflect the market's perception of cyclical risk tied to airline industry health, interest rate sensitivity, and residual asset values. MA, meanwhile, trades at a forward P/E near 29x, a premium justified by its consistent double-digit revenue growth, wide economic moat, and exposure to the long-term secular trend away from cash. Risk factors also differ markedly: AerCap faces concentration risk from airline customer defaults (evidenced by the Spirit Airlines restructuring impact in late 2025), geopolitical risks tied to its aircraft portfolio, and sensitivity to interest rates on its approximately $46 billion in debt. Mastercard's primary risks are regulatory — including the U.K. Payment Systems Regulator's interchange fee caps, the U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust scrutiny, and the proposed Credit Card Competition Act — along with the ever-present threat of disruption from fintech innovations and digital currencies.
Dividend investors may note the contrast as well: AER recently raised its quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share, yielding roughly 1.1%, while MA pays $0.76 quarterly, yielding approximately 0.54% but with a longer track record of consistent increases and a much lower payout ratio. In terms of recent momentum, AER has delivered a one-year total return exceeding 30%, while MA has gained roughly 11-12% over the comparable period — although Mastercard's returns have compounded far more smoothly over multi-year horizons with considerably lower volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
From an AI-driven analytical perspective, the relative attractiveness of these two stocks hinges on the algorithm's configured priorities: trend stability, valuation, momentum, or a blend of factors. Based on observable market data through mid-2026, MA would likely receive a more favorable AI assessment for trend consistency and stability — its revenue growth has been remarkably persistent, its operating margins have stayed above 55%, and its competitive advantages remain deeply entrenched. However, AER presents a compelling case on valuation and capital return metrics: a P/E under 7x, aggressive buyback activity, rising dividends, and book value growth of 19% are signals that quantitative models often reward. The AI would probably favor MA for risk-adjusted trend following given the company's smoother earnings trajectory and defensive characteristics, while acknowledging that AER offers substantially more upside potential if the favorable aviation leasing cycle persists — albeit with notably higher volatility and downside risk in the event of an economic downturn. As always, these probabilistic assessments depend on evolving market conditions and individual strategy parameters.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AER is a StrongBuy and MA is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AER’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMA’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AER’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AER’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AER’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AER (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) experienced а +0.64% price change this week, while MA (@Savings Banks) price change was +1.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +5.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.86%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.90%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was +4.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
AER is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
MA is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+5.83% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
@Savings Banks (+4.66% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
| AER | MA | AER / MA | |
| Capitalization | 24.4B | 500B | 5% |
| EBITDA | 5.82B | 22.1B | 26% |
| Gain YTD | 8.466 | 0.529 | 1,599% |
| P/E Ratio | 7.62 | 31.41 | 24% |
| Revenue | 8.96B | 35.1B | 26% |
| Total Cash | 1.69B | 11.6B | 15% |
| Total Debt | 42.8B | 24.6B | 174% |
AER | MA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 30 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 72 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 10 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AER's Valuation (14) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is significantly better than the same rating for MA (100). This means that AER’s stock grew significantly faster than MA’s over the last 12 months.
AER's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as MA (30). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to MA’s over the last 12 months.
MA's SMR Rating (8) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AER (48). This means that MA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AER’s over the last 12 months.
MA's Price Growth Rating (30) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AER (45). This means that MA’s stock grew similarly to AER’s over the last 12 months.
AER's P/E Growth Rating (39) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MA (72). This means that AER’s stock grew somewhat faster than MA’s over the last 12 months.
| AER | MA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 7 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 48% |
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AER and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AER has been closely correlated with AXP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AER jumps, then AXP could also see price increases.
MA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MA has been closely correlated with V. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MA jumps, then V could also see price increases.