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AER vs MA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) vs. Mastercard (MA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) reported record Q1 2026 results with revenue up 7.9% year-over-year, raised full-year guidance, and launched a $1 billion share repurchase, boosting recent momentum.
- MAsterCard beat Q1 estimates with $8.4 billion in revenue and $4.60 EPS (earnings per share), but shares dipped amid cautious guidance and cross-border headwinds from geopolitical tensions.
- AER trades at a low P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 6.19 with a $22.2 billion market cap, contrasting MA's 28.66 P/E and $438 billion market cap, highlighting valuation differences.
- YTD, MA outperforms with +12.9% gains versus AER's +1.7%, but AER shows stronger one-year returns at +34% amid aviation recovery.
- Analysts favor both with buy ratings, but AER's catalysts like buybacks position it for relative outperformance in cyclical sectors.
Introduction
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER), a global leader in aircraft leasing, and Mastercard Incorporated (MA), a dominant payments network, represent distinct opportunities in industrials and financials sectors. This comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance drivers, and relative strengths amid evolving economic conditions. Investors seeking diversification across cyclical assets and stable growth plays, or traders eyeing momentum shifts, will find value in understanding how aviation demand and payment volumes influence these stocks' trajectories in the current environment.
AER Overview and Recent Performance
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) is the world's largest publicly traded aircraft lessor, managing a fleet valued at tens of billions with focus on mid-life jets leased to airlines globally. In recent market activity, AER shares have shown resilience, trading around $141 with a 52-week range of $106-$155. Key influences include robust Q1 2026 results, with adjusted net income of $889 million and revenue of $2.24 billion surpassing estimates, driven by higher leasing rates and utilization amid sustained air travel demand. The company raised 2026 guidance and announced a $1 billion share repurchase, enhancing shareholder returns and lifting sentiment. Despite YTD gains of 1.7%, one-year performance exceeds 34%, reflecting recovery from aviation sector headwinds.
MA Overview and Recent Performance
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) operates a global payments network processing trillions in volume annually, benefiting from network effects and value-added services. Shares hover near $495, within a 52-week range of $481-$602, supported by a massive $438 billion market cap. Recent weeks saw strong Q1 2026 earnings, with revenue at $8.4 billion (up significantly year-over-year) and EPS of $4.60 beating forecasts, fueled by solid consumer spending and services growth. However, guidance tempered by cross-border slowdowns from geopolitical tensions led to a post-earnings pullback, muting enthusiasm despite YTD gains of 12.9% and analyst price targets around $649. Sentiment reflects caution on competition and macro pressures.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AerCap (AER) and Mastercard (MA) diverge sharply in business models: AER's asset-intensive leasing exposes it to aviation cycles, airline credit risk, and fuel dynamics, while MA's asset-light network thrives on transaction fees with high margins and scalability. Growth drivers contrast too—AerCap leverages post-pandemic travel rebound and fleet modernization, versus Mastercard's digital payments expansion amid e-commerce and emerging markets. Recent momentum favors AER with post-earnings upside and buybacks, against MA's dip on guidance. Risks include cyclicality for AER (e.g., capacity slowdowns) and regulatory/competition pressures for MA. Sector exposure positions AER for industrials recovery, MA for financial stability, with AER's lower valuation offering trade-offs in yield versus growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) based on superior trend consistency post-record earnings, attractive valuation at 6x P/E, fresh catalysts like raised guidance and repurchases, and stronger relative one-year positioning amid aviation tailwinds. While MA offers stability and higher YTD gains, its recent headwinds introduce short-term uncertainty, suggesting AER has higher probability of near-term outperformance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AER is a Buy and MA is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AER’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AER’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AER’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AER’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AER (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) experienced а +3.79% price change this week, while MA (@Savings Banks) price change was -1.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +0.45%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.77%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -0.17%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
AER is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
MA is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+0.45% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
@Savings Banks (-0.17% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
| AER | MA | AER / MA | |
| Capitalization | 23.2B | 428B | 5% |
| EBITDA | 5.5B | 21.3B | 26% |
| Gain YTD | 2.710 | -14.929 | -18% |
| P/E Ratio | 6.45 | 28.01 | 23% |
| Revenue | 8.68B | 33.9B | 26% |
| Total Cash | 1.48B | 8.22B | 18% |
| Total Debt | 43.1B | 19B | 227% |
AER | MA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 15 Undervalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 49 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 77 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 55 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AER's Valuation (15) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is significantly better than the same rating for MA (100). This means that AER’s stock grew significantly faster than MA’s over the last 12 months.
AER's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MA (49). This means that AER’s stock grew somewhat faster than MA’s over the last 12 months.
MA's SMR Rating (8) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AER (43). This means that MA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AER’s over the last 12 months.
AER's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as MA (60). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to MA’s over the last 12 months.
MA's P/E Growth Rating (77) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AER (86). This means that MA’s stock grew similarly to AER’s over the last 12 months.
| AER | MA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 8 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 38% |
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AER and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AER has been closely correlated with AXP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AER jumps, then AXP could also see price increases.
MA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MA has been closely correlated with V. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MA jumps, then V could also see price increases.