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AGM vs BBDC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) vs. Barings BDC, Inc. (BBDC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: AGM is a federally chartered secondary-market lender for agriculture and rural infrastructure, while BBDC is a business development company (BDC) that finances middle-market companies.
- Growth versus income: AGM has posted record business volume and earnings growth, while BBDC emphasizes a high current dividend yield but slower capital deployment.
- Valuation gap: Both trade near 10x earnings, but BBDC trades well below its net asset value (NAV, the per-share value of its holdings), while AGM trades near book value with a modest yield.
- Dividend profile: AGM pays a modest, steadily rising dividend (around 2.9%); BBDC offers a much higher yield but with narrower income coverage.
- Risk drivers differ: AGM is sensitive to agricultural credit and interest rates, while BBDC faces private-credit credit-quality and leverage considerations.
Introduction
Investors weighing stable, mission-driven lending franchises against high-yield specialty finance often encounter AGM and BBDC in the same conversation. Although both generate earnings from interest income, they occupy very different corners of the credit markets. This stock comparison is especially relevant for income-oriented investors and traders assessing relative performance, market positioning, and risk exposure. Understanding how a government-chartered agricultural lender differs from an externally managed middle-market lender can clarify which profile better matches a portfolio's objectives.
AGM Overview and Recent Performance
AGM, the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac), operates a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans, including farm and ranch, renewable energy, power and utilities, and broadband. In recent quarters the company has reported record results, with outstanding business volume reaching roughly $37.2 billion and quarterly revenue of about $125 million, supported by growth across nearly all segments. Core earnings have risen to approximately $5.40 per diluted share, and the company recently raised its common dividend to $1.60 per share, extending a multiyear pattern of increases.
Recent market activity has kept the shares below their 20-day moving average at times, even as the longer-term trend remains constructive. Sentiment has been shaped by strong volume growth, a return on equity (ROE) near 19%, and a Tier 1 capital ratio around 13%, balanced against watchpoints such as credit migration in a few farm and ranch loans and rising fuel and fertilizer costs for borrowers. Analysts maintain a broadly favorable view, with an average price target above the current price.
BBDC Overview and Recent Performance
BBDC, Barings BDC, Inc., is an externally managed business development company that invests primarily in senior secured loans to middle-market companies across a range of industries. The adviser, Barings LLC, is a global asset manager with substantial assets under management (AUM). In recent quarters BBDC has generated stable net investment income (NII) of about $0.25 per share, held its quarterly dividend at $0.26 per share, and maintained a portfolio valued near $2.37 billion, with a weighted average portfolio yield around 10%.
Recent market activity has been relatively subdued, with the shares trading below their NAV of roughly $11.02 per share. Sentiment reflects a mix of factors: resilient credit quality in the core portfolio, a $30 million share repurchase authorization, and a sizable cushion of spillover income, offset by a modest sequential decline in NII, realized losses tied to legacy asset exits, and a higher debt-to-equity ratio near 1.24x. The dividend implies a yield of roughly 9.4% on NAV and is a central part of the investment case.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast is structural. AGM is a federally chartered corporation with a liquidity-focused mission and a lower-risk, collateralized loan book, giving it a relatively low beta and steady, compounding growth. BBDC is a leveraged credit vehicle whose returns depend heavily on spreads, origination discipline, and realized credit outcomes.
In terms of growth drivers, AGM has multiple expanding segments—renewable energy, power and utilities, and broadband—alongside a durable farm and ranch franchise. BBDC's growth is more constrained in the near term, as repayments have roughly offset new originations and legacy assets continue to run off. On the income side, BBDC's yield is substantially higher, but its dividend is only narrowly covered by NII, whereas AGM's lower yield is supported by rising core earnings.
Risk profiles also diverge. AGM's key sensitivities are agricultural credit quality, energy and fertilizer costs, and interest rates. BBDC faces private-credit sector headlines, mark-to-market volatility, foreign-exchange exposure, and the effects of a potential decline in base rates on its net interest income. Valuation differs as well: BBDC trades below book value, while AGM trades at a premium to book but at a moderate earnings multiple.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward AGM in the current environment. The stock's combination of record business volume, rising core earnings, a strengthening dividend, a robust capital position, and a broadly favorable analyst consensus points to a more consistent trend and clearer catalysts than BBDC presently offers. BBDC's high yield and discount to NAV are notable, but flat deployment, narrow dividend coverage, and realized losses suggest a less clearly defined near-term momentum profile. This is a probabilistic assessment of relative positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and both names retain distinct appeal for different investor objectives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGM is a Hold and BBDC is a Hold.
AGM's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AGM moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 56 cases where AGM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AGM as a result. In 57 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AGM just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where AGM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +1.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGM advanced for three days, in 209 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGM entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AGM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.785) is normal, around the industry mean (3.804). P/E Ratio (11.167) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.599). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.716) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.186) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.420) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
BBDC's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for BBDC moved out of oversold territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 12 of the 21 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BBDC as a result. In 47 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BBDC just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where BBDC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 41%.
BBDC moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBDC advanced for three days, in 132 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
BBDC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBDC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Aroon Indicator for BBDC entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BBDC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.814) is normal, around the industry mean (2.440). P/E Ratio (10.866) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.350). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.117) settles around the average of (0.267) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.191) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
AGM | BBDC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AGM's Valuation (82) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as BBDC (83) in the null industry. This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to BBDC’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as BBDC (37) in the null industry. This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to BBDC’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's SMR Rating (17) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as BBDC (45) in the null industry. This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to BBDC’s over the last 12 months.
BBDC's Price Growth Rating (48) in the null industry is in the same range as AGM (54) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry. This means that BBDC’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as BBDC (32) in the null industry. This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to BBDC’s over the last 12 months.
| AGM | BBDC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 41% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 66% | 8 days ago 44% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 64% | 11 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while BBDC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AGM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- BBDC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGM’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BBDC’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- BBDC’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AGM (@Savings Banks) experienced а +0.71% price change this week, while BBDC (@Investment Managers) price change was +3.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -1.94%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -3.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGM is expected to report earnings on Feb 19, 2027.
BBDC is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (-1.94% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
@Investment Managers (-3.24% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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AGM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGM has been loosely correlated with GATX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AGM jumps, then GATX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AGM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGM | 100% | +1.65% | ||
| GATX - AGM | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.65% | ||
| BBDC - AGM | 50% Loosely correlated | +2.53% | ||
| R - AGM | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.49% | ||
| URI - AGM | 49% Loosely correlated | -4.37% | ||
| AER - AGM | 47% Loosely correlated | +2.04% | ||
More | ||||
BBDC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBDC has been closely correlated with MFIC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BBDC jumps, then MFIC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBDC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBDC | 100% | +2.53% | ||
| MFIC - BBDC | 72% Closely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| CION - BBDC | 68% Closely correlated | +3.22% | ||
| ARCC - BBDC | 67% Closely correlated | +2.37% | ||
| PFLT - BBDC | 67% Closely correlated | +2.80% | ||
| OCSL - BBDC | 66% Loosely correlated | +3.36% | ||
More | ||||
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|---|---|---|---|
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