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AGM vs URI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) vs. United Rentals (URI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) and United Rentals (URI) operate in entirely different sectors — agricultural finance versus equipment rental — making this a contrast between a defensive, yield-oriented financial stock and a cyclical industrial growth play.
- AGM has demonstrated consistent, compounding growth with a 15-year streak of annual dividend increases and a current dividend yield near 3%, supported by record core earnings and a robust Tier 1 capital ratio (a measure of a bank's financial strength) of 13.3%.
- URI posted full-year 2025 revenue of $16.1 billion with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $7.33 billion, and guided for continued growth in 2026, underpinned by large-scale infrastructure projects and specialty rental demand.
- AGM trades at a significantly lower valuation multiple (P/E of approximately 11.9) than URI (P/E of roughly 25.4), reflecting the market's willingness to pay a premium for URI's scale and free cash flow generation.
- Both companies returned substantial capital to shareholders in recent periods — AGM raised its dividend by 7%, while URI repurchased $1.9 billion of stock and authorized a new $5 billion buyback program.
- Risk profiles diverge sharply: AGM faces credit exposure tied to the agricultural economy, while URI is sensitive to construction cycles, interest rates, and inflationary cost pressures.
Introduction
Comparing AGM and URI may seem unconventional at first glance — one is a government-sponsored enterprise channeling capital into rural America, the other is the world's largest equipment rental company serving construction and industrial markets. Yet both stocks hold appeal for distinct investor types: AGM attracts those seeking steady, dividend-compounding returns with moderate volatility, while URI appeals to growth-oriented investors betting on infrastructure spending and industrial activity. This comparison examines how these two fundamentally different businesses have performed in the current market environment, what has driven sentiment in recent months, and how AI-powered analysis might weigh their respective strengths and weaknesses.
AGM Overview and Recent Performance
AGM, commonly known as Farmer Mac, is the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation — a federally chartered secondary market provider that supplies liquidity to lenders serving American agriculture, rural infrastructure, and renewable energy projects. Its business model resembles that of other government-sponsored enterprises, purchasing and guaranteeing eligible loans rather than originating them directly.
In recent weeks, AGM shares have traded near the upper end of their 52-week range, reflecting steady upward momentum. The stock has gained approximately 23.5% year-to-date and roughly 25.8% over the trailing 12 months. This performance has been supported by record operating results: full-year 2025 brought record core earnings of $182.9 million, or $16.66 per diluted share, driven by a 13% increase in net effective spread — a non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) measure of net interest income adjusted for certain items. Outstanding business volume reached $33.4 billion, with notable growth in the renewable energy segment, which more than doubled year-over-year to $2.3 billion.
Analyst sentiment has turned constructive as well; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded AGM to Outperform in late 2025, citing valuation and earnings momentum. The company's 15th consecutive annual dividend increase — a 7% raise to $1.60 per share quarterly — reinforces its reputation for capital discipline. At a P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of roughly 11.9, AGM trades at a notable discount to the broader financial sector, a reflection of its niche focus and the market's cautious view of agricultural credit risk amid uncertain commodity and trade policy dynamics.
URI Overview and Recent Performance
URI is the largest equipment rental company in the world, operating an integrated network of more than 1,660 rental locations across North America, with additional operations in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. The company rents a vast fleet of general construction and specialty equipment — with an original equipment cost of approximately $22.5 billion — to customers ranging from large-scale contractors to municipalities and industrial users.
URI shares have experienced a more volatile trajectory in recent trading sessions, closing near $1,055 after a sharp pullback from levels above $1,140 reached earlier in the month. Even with this near-term turbulence, the stock is up roughly 31% year-to-date and approximately 21% over the past year. The company delivered a record 2025 with $16.1 billion in total revenue and $7.33 billion in adjusted EBITDA, supported by 2.2% fleet productivity growth. Its specialty rentals segment posted double-digit rental revenue growth across multiple quarters, driven by demand in matting solutions and large-scale infrastructure projects.
Capital management has been a defining theme for URI. In 2025 the company returned $2.36 billion to shareholders — $1.9 billion through share repurchases and $464 million in dividends. Looking ahead, management introduced 2026 revenue guidance of $16.8 to $17.3 billion and authorized a massive $5 billion share repurchase program alongside a 10% dividend increase. Still, margin compression from inflationary delivery and labor costs, as well as a moderating used-equipment market, has drawn investor scrutiny and contributed to periodic selling pressure.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental difference between AGM and URI lies in their business models and economic sensitivity. AGM operates as a spread-based financial intermediary, earning net interest income from its loan portfolio and guarantee fees. Its revenue streams are relatively predictable, driven by agricultural lending demand and refinancing cycles. URI, by contrast, is an asset-heavy industrial operator whose fortunes are tied to non-residential construction activity, infrastructure spending legislation, and broader industrial capital expenditure cycles.
Growth profiles also diverge meaningfully. URI has grown revenue at a 13.5% compound annual rate over five years, though recent quarters have decelerated to the mid-single digits, reflecting normalization from post-pandemic highs. AGM has delivered consistent low-to-mid-teens earnings growth, with core EPS (earnings per share) compounding at a steadier but less explosive pace. AGM's growth has been broad-based across farm and ranch, renewable energy, and broadband infrastructure lending, while URI's has been concentrated in specialty rentals and large-project activity.
Valuation tells a distinct story. AGM's P/E of approximately 11.9 suggests the market prices in limited growth expectations and some credit-cycle caution. URI's P/E above 25 reflects confidence in sustained free cash flow generation and aggressive capital return, but also embeds expectations that may be vulnerable to an economic slowdown. AGM offers a substantially higher dividend yield (about 3.0% versus URI's 0.75%), appealing to income-focused investors, while URI's total return proposition leans heavily on buyback-driven EPS accretion and price appreciation.
Risk considerations further separate the two. AGM's portfolio is diversified across commodities and geographies, but it remains exposed to farm income trends, trade policy disruptions, and isolated credit events — the company recorded a $7.4 million net provision for credit losses in Q3 2025. URI faces cyclical demand risk, elevated fleet repositioning costs, and margin pressure from labor and delivery inflation. Its higher beta of 1.79 signals greater sensitivity to broad market swings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative valuation, and the current market environment, Tickeron's AI framework would likely express a measured preference for AGM at this juncture. The reasoning is probabilistic rather than definitive: AGM has exhibited smoother price momentum in recent months, a more compressed valuation that may offer a wider margin of safety, and a steadily compounding earnings stream less susceptible to abrupt cyclical turns. Its record core earnings, improving capital position, and constructive analyst revisions present a coherent positive trajectory. URI remains a fundamentally strong business with formidable scale and shareholder-friendly policies, but the combination of a richer multiple, near-term margin headwinds, and higher volatility introduce greater uncertainty in the AI's risk-reward calculus. In any stock comparison, AI models weigh trend stability and risk-adjusted positioning — and on those metrics, AGM currently presents the more favorable profile.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGM is a StrongBuy and URI is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileURI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AGM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- URI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while URI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- URI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AGM (@Savings Banks) experienced а +8.63% price change this week, while URI (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was -5.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -0.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was -3.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGM is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
URI is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (-0.02% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (-3.57% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
| AGM | URI | AGM / URI | |
| Capitalization | 2.36B | 67.2B | 4% |
| EBITDA | N/A | 7.45B | - |
| Gain YTD | 32.180 | 33.930 | 95% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.45 | 25.96 | 48% |
| Revenue | 446M | 16.8B | 3% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 112M | - |
| Total Debt | 36.9B | 15.4B | 240% |
AGM | URI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AGM's Valuation (71) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as URI (89). This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to URI’s over the last 12 months.
URI's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (20). This means that URI’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
URI's SMR Rating (35) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (36). This means that URI’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as URI (43). This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to URI’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's P/E Growth Rating (33) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as URI (35). This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to URI’s over the last 12 months.
| AGM | URI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 46% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 71% |
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AGM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGM has been loosely correlated with GATX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AGM jumps, then GATX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AGM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGM | 100% | +3.31% | ||
| GATX - AGM | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.56% | ||
| BBDC - AGM | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.12% | ||
| R - AGM | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| URI - AGM | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| AER - AGM | 47% Loosely correlated | -1.29% | ||
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URI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, URI has been closely correlated with SYF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if URI jumps, then SYF could also see price increases.