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AGM vs R
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) vs. Ryder System (R) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage, or Farmer Mac) is a federally chartered rural lender with a low-beta, dividend-paying profile, while R (Ryder System) is a cyclical, capital-intensive logistics and fleet-management operator.
- AGM has posted record business volume and core earnings per share (EPS) beats in recent quarters, supported by farm-and-ranch, renewable-energy, and rural broadband lending.
- Ryder has delivered seven consecutive quarters of comparable EPS growth, raised its full-year outlook, and gained roughly 40% year to date.
- Both carry a "Buy" consensus among analysts, but their risk profiles differ sharply: AGM holds capital exceeding regulatory requirements by more than 60%, while Ryder operates with meaningfully higher leverage.
- Valuations diverge: AGM trades near 10–11 times forward earnings, while Ryder trades near 19 times trailing earnings.
2) Introduction
Investors comparing AGM and R are effectively weighing two very different business models. Federal Agricultural Mortgage serves as a secondary-market provider of capital to rural America, while Ryder System operates an asset-heavy fleet, supply-chain, and dedicated-transportation business. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors assessing trade-offs between a lower-volatility, income-oriented financial and a more cyclical, economically sensitive industrial. By examining relative performance, market positioning, and recent developments, traders can better understand how each name behaves across market conditions and where their growth drivers, risks, and valuations currently stand.
3) AGM Overview and Recent Performance
AGM, known as Farmer Mac, is a stockholder-owned, federally chartered corporation that provides a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans. Its segments span farm and ranch, corporate agfinance, power and utilities, broadband, and renewable-energy financing. Recent quarters have been defined by record business volume: outstanding volume surpassed $34 billion in early 2026 and continued climbing toward the $37 billion mark, driven by strong farm-and-ranch loan purchases and infrastructure demand tied to data centers, broadband, and renewable energy.
Earnings have been correspondingly robust, with core EPS topping consensus in recent reports. The company's capital position remains a differentiator, with core capital exceeding statutory requirements by more than 60%. Sentiment has been supported by a diversified growth pipeline, though shares have pulled back modestly in recent weeks and traded below their 20-day moving average amid broader market weakness. The stock offers a dividend yield near 3% and trades at an undemanding multiple relative to its growth trajectory.
4) R Overview and Recent Performance
R, Ryder System, is a fully integrated logistics and transportation company operating three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS). It is a component of the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the S&P MidCap 400. Recent market activity has favored the stock: shares have climbed roughly 40% year to date, reflecting execution on strategic initiatives and improving used-vehicle market conditions.
Fundamentals have strengthened in step. Ryder reported its seventh consecutive quarter of comparable EPS growth, beating consensus and raising the low end of full-year guidance. Management has also boosted shareholder returns, increasing the quarterly dividend by about 11% and marking more than 50 years of uninterrupted payments. Analyst sentiment has improved, with recent upgrades from major firms citing the company's emergence from a prolonged freight downturn. Offsetting these positives is elevated leverage, with total debt of roughly $7.5 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio near 270%.
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6) Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between these two names begins with sector exposure. AGM sits within diversified financials, generating spread-based income through lending and securitization, with growth driven by rural credit demand and infrastructure investment. R operates in transportation and logistics, where revenue is tied to freight volumes, fleet utilization, and used-vehicle pricing.
Growth drivers differ accordingly. AGM's catalysts are structural and policy-linked — farm lending, renewable energy, and broadband expansion — giving it a steadier earnings cadence. Ryder's catalysts are cyclical, hinging on a freight-market recovery, contractual sales growth, and cost initiatives that management estimates will deliver $70 million of incremental benefits in 2026. This cyclicality also shows up in risk: AGM carries a beta well below 1.0, while Ryder's beta sits near 1.05, indicating greater sensitivity to market swings.
Balance sheets point in opposite directions. AGM's capital comfortably exceeds regulatory thresholds, whereas Ryder's higher leverage leaves less room to maneuver if funding costs stay restrictive. On valuation, AGM's low double-digit forward multiple reflects its defensive, steady-growth nature, while Ryder's higher trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reflects market optimism around an earnings upcycle already underway.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor R on near-term trend and momentum — seven consecutive quarters of EPS growth, upward guidance revisions, and strong year-to-date relative performance signal a persistent positive trend. However, a probabilistic assessment would weigh that momentum against leverage and cyclical sensitivity. AGM, by contrast, offers greater trend consistency and stability, backed by record volume, superior capital strength, and lower volatility, even if its recent price action has been choppier. The AI's preference would therefore depend on the chosen timeframe and risk tolerance: Ryder may appear more attractive to momentum-oriented signals, while Farmer Mac aligns more closely with stability- and quality-oriented criteria.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGM is a Hold and R is a Hold.
AGM's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AGM moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 56 cases where AGM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AGM as a result. In 57 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AGM just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where AGM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +1.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGM advanced for three days, in 209 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGM entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AGM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.785) is normal, around the industry mean (3.804). P/E Ratio (11.167) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.599). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.716) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.186) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.420) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
R in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
R moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 41 of 49 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on R as a result. In 63 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for R just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where R's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The 10-day moving average for R crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +1.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where R advanced for three days, in 230 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 165 of 260 cases where R Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where R declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
R broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. R’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.771) is normal, around the industry mean (2.178). P/E Ratio (22.741) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.981). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (0.988). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.745) is also within normal values, averaging (1.703).
AGM | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
R's Valuation (71) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (82). This means that R’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
R's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (27). This means that R’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's SMR Rating (17) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for R (52). This means that AGM’s stock grew somewhat faster than R’s over the last 12 months.
R's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (54). This means that R’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
R's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (25). This means that R’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
| AGM | R | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 64% | 9 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while R’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AGM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- R’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGM’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while R’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- R’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AGM (@Savings Banks) experienced а +0.71% price change this week, while R (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was +2.72% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -1.94%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was -5.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.51%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGM is expected to report earnings on Feb 19, 2027.
R is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (-1.94% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (-5.25% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
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AGM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGM has been loosely correlated with GATX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AGM jumps, then GATX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AGM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGM | 100% | +1.65% | ||
| GATX - AGM | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.65% | ||
| BBDC - AGM | 50% Loosely correlated | +2.53% | ||
| R - AGM | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.49% | ||
| URI - AGM | 49% Loosely correlated | -4.37% | ||
| AER - AGM | 47% Loosely correlated | +2.04% | ||
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