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AGM vs R
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) vs. Ryder System (R) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM), known as Farmer Mac, operates as a government-sponsored enterprise providing secondary market liquidity for American agricultural and rural infrastructure loans, while Ryder System (R) is a fully integrated logistics and transportation company spanning fleet management, supply chain solutions, and dedicated transportation.
- AGM trades at a notably lower valuation multiple — a P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) around 12x — compared to R's P/E of approximately 21x, reflecting different market perceptions of growth and risk in each business model.
- Both companies have demonstrated consistent earnings growth and shareholder returns, with AGM delivering its tenth consecutive year of record core earnings in 2025 and R reporting five straight quarters of earnings-per-share growth.
- Year-to-date, R has significantly outperformed AGM in price appreciation, gaining roughly 37% compared to about 23% for Farmer Mac, though AGM offers a substantially higher dividend yield of approximately 3% versus around 1.6% for Ryder.
- Risk profiles diverge meaningfully: AGM faces agricultural credit quality and interest rate sensitivity, while R contends with freight cycle headwinds and used-vehicle pricing pressure.
- AGM's low beta of 0.70 signals defensive characteristics, whereas R's beta near 1.01 indicates market-level volatility with cyclical exposure.
Introduction
Investors evaluating opportunities across different sectors of the U.S. economy may find the comparison between AGM and R instructive. These two companies operate in fundamentally different industries — agricultural finance versus transportation and logistics — yet both are deeply tied to the health of the broader economy. AGM serves as a critical liquidity provider for rural America's credit markets, while R keeps supply chains moving across North America. This article examines how these two stocks compare across valuation, momentum, risk, and market positioning, offering a data-driven perspective for investors weighing defensive stability against cyclical opportunity.
AGM Overview and Recent Performance
AGM, the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation — commonly called Farmer Mac — is a federally chartered, shareholder-owned enterprise that provides a secondary market for agricultural real estate and rural infrastructure loans. By purchasing and securitizing loans originated by approved lenders, Farmer Mac injects liquidity into the agricultural credit system. The company's business spans farm and ranch lending, corporate agricultural finance, rural utilities, broadband infrastructure, and a rapidly growing renewable energy portfolio.
In recent market activity, AGM shares have shown steady upward momentum, trading around the $213 level and posting a year-to-date gain of approximately 23%. The stock has recovered strongly from its 52-week low near $137 reached earlier in 2026. Farmer Mac closed fiscal year 2025 with record core earnings of $182.9 million, or $16.66 per diluted share, and record outstanding business volume of $33.4 billion — marking its tenth consecutive year of record annual core earnings. The Board of Directors also authorized a 7% dividend increase to $1.60 per share quarterly, the fifteenth consecutive annual increase. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded the stock to Outperform in recent months, citing improving fundamentals. With a Tier 1 Capital Ratio of 13.3% and a beta of just 0.70, AGM presents a relatively defensive posture within the financial sector. Some isolated credit events in the fourth quarter of 2025 related to agricultural borrowers tempered near-term sentiment, but management has characterized these as episodic rather than systemic.
R Overview and Recent Performance
R, Ryder System, Inc., is a leading provider of supply chain, dedicated transportation, and fleet management solutions. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, the company operates through three core segments: Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), which provides full-service leasing and rental of commercial vehicles; Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), which manages warehousing, distribution, and omnichannel retail operations; and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS), which supplies vehicles, drivers, and routing support for customer-specific needs. Ryder has undergone a notable transformation in recent years, shifting its revenue mix toward more stable contractual, asset-light businesses.
R shares have delivered robust performance, trading near $258 and posting a year-to-date gain of roughly 37%, substantially outpacing broader market averages. The stock's 52-week range spans from approximately $158 to $284. Ryder delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of earnings-per-share growth in the most recent reporting period, with full-year 2025 comparable EPS (earnings per share) of $12.92, up 8% from the prior year. The company reported adjusted ROE (return on equity) of 17% and generated free cash flow of $946 million in 2025, a dramatic improvement from $133 million in 2024. Management has returned $664 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividend increases, reducing share count by 21% since 2021. While contractual earnings remain resilient, Ryder continues to navigate headwinds from the prolonged freight market downturn, which has pressured used vehicle pricing and rental demand. The company's outlook for 2026 calls for comparable EPS of $13.45 to $14.45, driven by $70 million in incremental benefits from strategic initiatives.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
When placed side by side, AGM and R reveal stark contrasts across several key dimensions. In terms of business model, AGM operates as a financial intermediary — earning net interest income and guarantee fees by facilitating agricultural credit — while R is an asset-intensive operational business generating revenue from leasing, logistics management, and transportation services.
Valuation is a major point of divergence. AGM trades at approximately 12 times trailing earnings, a discount to both peer financial institutions and the broader market, partly reflecting its niche mandate and lower growth expectations. R trades at roughly 21 times earnings, a premium that reflects investor confidence in the company's transformed business model and its capacity for earnings growth even in a subdued freight environment. On a forward P/E basis, R trades around 16 times expected earnings, suggesting analysts anticipate meaningful growth ahead.
Sector exposure drives fundamentally different risk profiles. AGM is tied to agricultural commodity cycles, farmland values, and rural infrastructure investment — areas that benefit from long-term secular trends in food demand and renewable energy but face episodic credit stress from weather events, trade policy shifts, and commodity price volatility. R is levered to the industrial economy and freight cycle; its contractual revenue base (now 62% of total revenue, up from 44% in 2018) provides a buffer against cyclical downturns, but used vehicle sales and rental demand remain sensitive to broader economic conditions.
Income-oriented investors may favor AGM for its 3% dividend yield and 15-year track record of consecutive annual increases. Growth and momentum investors may gravitate toward R, given its superior price momentum, aggressive share buyback program, and double-digit EPS growth forecasts. Market capitalization also differs substantially: R at roughly $10 billion is more than four times the size of AGM at approximately $2.3 billion, implying greater liquidity and institutional coverage for Ryder.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and forward growth catalysts, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely favor R in the current market environment. Ryder's multi-quarter streak of earnings growth, the structural shift toward higher-quality contractual revenue, aggressive capital return programs, and a clear path to double-digit EPS expansion in 2026 present a compelling algorithmic signal for trend-following and momentum-oriented strategies. That said, AGM holds its own appeal — particularly for AI strategies optimized for low-volatility, income-generating positions. Its rock-bottom beta, premium dividend yield, and government-sponsored enterprise status offer defensive characteristics that may prove valuable if macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies or if agricultural credit conditions stabilize. The AI verdict, therefore, is probabilistic rather than absolute: R appears better positioned for near-term alpha capture, while AGM offers a steadier, yield-compounding profile that may reward patient, risk-averse capital over a longer horizon.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGM is a StrongBuy and R is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileR’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AGM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- R’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while R’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- R’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AGM (@Savings Banks) experienced а +8.63% price change this week, while R (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was -4.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -0.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was -3.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGM is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
R is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (-0.02% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (-3.57% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
| AGM | R | AGM / R | |
| Capitalization | 2.36B | 9.83B | 24% |
| EBITDA | N/A | 3.31B | - |
| Gain YTD | 32.180 | 35.083 | 92% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.45 | 20.85 | 60% |
| Revenue | 446M | 12.9B | 3% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 219M | - |
| Total Debt | 36.9B | 8.45B | 437% |
AGM | R | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 13 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
R's Valuation (13) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AGM (71). This means that R’s stock grew somewhat faster than AGM’s over the last 12 months.
R's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (20). This means that R’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's SMR Rating (36) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as R (53). This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to R’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as R (43). This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to R’s over the last 12 months.
R's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (33). This means that R’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
| AGM | R | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 12 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 64% |
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| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| TDAQ | 26.20 | 0.14 | +0.54% |
| TappAlpha Innovation 100 Gr & Dl Inc ETF | |||
| PDBA | 36.73 | 0.05 | +0.14% |
| Invesco Agriculture Cmdty Str No K-1ETF | |||
| MINN | 21.92 | -0.01 | -0.05% |
| Mairs & Power Minnesota Municipal Bd ETF | |||
| NHYM | 24.66 | -0.05 | -0.18% |
| Nuveen High Yield Municipal Income ETF | |||
| RWR | 115.94 | -0.46 | -0.40% |
| State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones® REIT ETF | |||
R and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, R has been closely correlated with AXP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if R jumps, then AXP could also see price increases.