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AGM vs GATX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) vs. GATX Corporation (GATX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: AGM is a specialty agricultural lender, while GATX leases transportation assets such as railcars and aircraft engines.
- Divergent momentum: AGM has gained roughly 25% over the past year, whereas GATX has declined around 4% over the same period.
- Income profiles differ: AGM offers a notably higher dividend yield (around 3.2%) than GATX (around 1.6%).
- Valuation gap: AGM trades near 11 times trailing earnings versus about 16 times for GATX.
- Catalysts: GATX is integrating its Wells Fargo railcar acquisition and expanding engine leasing, while AGM is benefiting from diversified rural infrastructure lending.
- Both stocks have pulled back from 52-week highs in recent weeks, resetting near-term technical positioning.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to the specialty finance and industrial leasing sectors often encounter two very different companies with deceptively similar profiles: AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, known as Farmer Mac) and GATX Corporation. Both generate steady, contract-based cash flows, pay reliable dividends, and hold long operating histories. Yet their underlying economics, growth drivers, and recent stock behavior have diverged considerably. This stock comparison examines relative performance, market positioning, and sentiment to help traders and investors understand the trade-offs between an agricultural credit specialist and a diversified transportation-asset lessor in the current market environment.
AGM Overview and Recent Performance
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, better known as Farmer Mac, is a stockholder-owned, federally chartered corporation that operates a secondary market for loans made to borrowers across rural America. Its segments span Farm and Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power and Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments, giving it exposure to both agricultural credit and rural infrastructure financing.
In recent market activity, AGM has been one of the stronger performers in its peer group, climbing roughly 25% over the trailing year and holding a consensus "Buy" rating with an average analyst price target near $257. The stock has, however, retreated from its August 52-week high, falling around 10% over the past month and trading below its 20-day moving average. This pullback follows a strong multi-quarter run, and rising short interest month-over-month suggests some investors have begun questioning near-term valuation. With a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 11 and a forward P/E near 9, AGM remains comparatively inexpensive relative to its growth rate.
GATX Overview and Recent Performance
GATX Corporation, headquartered in Chicago and founded in 1898, leases transportation assets—primarily railcars, aircraft spare engines, and tank containers—to customers worldwide. Its three segments, Rail North America, Rail International, and Engine Leasing, provide diversified exposure to freight demand, global rail markets, and commercial aviation.
Recent performance has been mixed relative to AGM. GATX reported second-quarter diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.84, up from $2.06 a year earlier, and raised full-year 2026 guidance to a range of $9.90 to $10.30 per share. Rail North America utilization remained near 98%, renewal pricing stayed favorable, and its Engine Leasing joint venture with Rolls-Royce delivered strong results. Nevertheless, the stock has slipped roughly 4% over the past year and about 3% year to date, pulling back from its April high and trading toward the lower end of its 52-week range. Investors appear to be weighing strong fundamentals against concerns that much of the Wells Fargo railcar integration upside is already reflected in the share price.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is sector exposure. AGM is a credit institution whose returns hinge on the health of agricultural borrowers, rural infrastructure demand, and interest-rate spreads, whereas GATX is an asset owner whose returns depend on railcar utilization, lease-rate renewal economics, and secondary-market asset values. This makes AGM more sensitive to credit and rate cycles and GATX more sensitive to freight volumes, industrial activity, and aviation demand.
Momentum and relative performance also diverge sharply. AGM has delivered substantially stronger trailing returns and carries a lower valuation multiple, while GATX offers a more visible pipeline of operational catalysts—including the Wells Fargo Rail joint venture integration, disciplined secondary-market asset sales, and expanding engine-leasing income. On risk, AGM faces rising short interest and a recent technical pullback, whereas GATX contends with European macroeconomic softness, tariff uncertainty on tank cars, and the lumpy timing of remarketing gains. Investors seeking higher current income and momentum have gravitated toward AGM, while those prioritizing a diversified, hard-asset leasing franchise with acquisition-driven growth may find GATX's positioning more compelling.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative strength, valuation, and income characteristics, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward AGM. The stock's stronger trailing performance, lower earnings multiple, and higher dividend yield suggest a more favorable risk-reward balance in the present environment, even accounting for its recent pullback from highs. GATX maintains solid fundamentals and identifiable catalysts, but its negative momentum and softer year-to-date return indicate less immediate trend alignment. This probabilistic assessment reflects current conditions rather than a definitive forecast, and relative positioning could shift as new earnings data and market catalysts emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGM is a Buy and GATX is a Hold.
AGM's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for AGM moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 24 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 56 cases where AGM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AGM just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where AGM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +1.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGM advanced for three days, in 209 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
AGM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AGM as a result. In 53 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The 10-day moving average for AGM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGM entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AGM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.771) is normal, around the industry mean (3.721). P/E Ratio (11.078) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.924). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.716) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.174) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.420) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
GATX in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
GATX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 33 of 45 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GATX as a result. In 62 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GATX just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GATX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +7.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GATX advanced for three days, in 201 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for GATX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GATX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
GATX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GATX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.288) is normal, around the industry mean (2.185). P/E Ratio (17.833) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.246). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.360) is also within normal values, averaging (0.988). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. GATX's P/S Ratio (3.099) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.703).
AGM | GATX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 56 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GATX's Valuation (80) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (82). This means that GATX’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
GATX's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (27). This means that GATX’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's SMR Rating (17) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GATX (60). This means that AGM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GATX’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as GATX (60). This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to GATX’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as GATX (56). This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to GATX’s over the last 12 months.
| AGM | GATX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 63% | 11 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while GATX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AGM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- GATX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGM’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GATX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- GATX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AGM (@Savings Banks) experienced а +1.26% price change this week, while GATX (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was +7.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was +0.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.71%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +5.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.86%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGM is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
GATX is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (+0.15% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+5.83% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
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GATX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GATX has been loosely correlated with ENVA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GATX jumps, then ENVA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GATX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATX | 100% | +6.87% | ||
| ENVA - GATX | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.68% | ||
| AXP - GATX | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.81% | ||
| BFH - GATX | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.89% | ||
| AGM - GATX | 53% Loosely correlated | -0.09% | ||
| COF - GATX | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.88% | ||
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