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AJG vs AON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs. Aon plc (AON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AJG and AON are two of the world's largest insurance brokerage and risk-advisory firms, but they differ in growth strategy, momentum, and near-term catalysts.
- AJG has carried stronger recent relative momentum, outperforming peers and heading into earnings with notable gains over the past month.
- AON delivered an earnings and revenue beat in its latest quarter, yet the stock has lagged over the trailing three- and twelve-month periods.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: AJG is the favored ticker, based on trend consistency, stability, and a steadier mix of catalysts.
- For deeper context, explore AJG Major News, AJG Today's Price Move, AON Major News, and AON Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI models are positioning across these and other names, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) and Aon plc (AON) operate in the same core industry — insurance brokerage, risk management, and human capital consulting — making them a natural pair for a direct stock comparison. Because both generate most of their revenue from commissions and fees rather than underwriting risk, their shares tend to move on similar macro themes, including commercial insurance pricing and deal activity. Yet the two companies diverge in structure and strategy: AJG has leaned heavily into mergers and acquisitions (M&A, or corporate combinations), while AON emphasizes a more integrated, analytics-driven platform. This comparison is relevant for investors weighing relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning within the insurance-services sector.
AJG Overview and Recent Performance
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is a diversified insurance brokerage and risk-management provider, with a growing claims-management business operating under its Gallagher Bassett brand. In recent weeks, AJG has shown comparatively strong price behavior, advancing meaningfully over the past month and trading above its 20-day moving average. That momentum has been supported by a steady cadence of smaller acquisitions — including specialty, employee-benefits, and marine-risk firms — reinforcing its reputation as one of the sector's most active consolidators.
Sentiment has been shaped by two competing forces. The company is still digesting its largest-ever deal, the roughly $13.5 billion AssuredPartners acquisition, and management recently trimmed its full-year brokerage organic-growth outlook to about 5%. At the same time, its risk-management segment has been growing faster than core brokerage, providing a more diversified revenue base. Wall Street has held a broadly favorable view, with most analysts rating the stock a Buy, even as some trimmed price targets in response to softening property-and-casualty (P&C) pricing.
AON Overview and Recent Performance
Aon plc is a global professional-services firm operating through two segments: Risk Capital (commercial risk, reinsurance, and specialty solutions) and Human Capital (health, wealth, and talent). In its most recent quarter, AON reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS, or profit divided by shares outstanding) that topped consensus expectations, alongside revenue that also exceeded forecasts. Organic revenue growth accelerated to roughly 6%, its fastest pace of the year, and the adjusted operating margin expanded by about 70 basis points (bps, where one bp equals 0.01 percentage point).
Despite the solid quarterly result, AON has underperformed over the trailing three- and twelve-month windows, and the stock's 52-week range remains well below its highs. Investors have weighed the pending USI acquisition and associated integration costs against the benefits of the company's "Accelerating Aon United" restructuring program, which continues to generate cost savings. These factors have produced a more mixed near-term tape, even as the underlying business posts steady organic growth and margin improvement.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI-powered trading bots that analyze and trade thousands of different tickers across the market. Only a select subset earns a place in the curated Trending AI Robots section, which highlights the models best suited to current market conditions. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance, and the specific set of tickers they cover — ranging from short-term momentum models to longer-horizon trend-following systems. Because each bot uses its own quantitative signals and risk parameters, the section is designed to help traders compare approaches rather than rely on any single model. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can offer a data-driven lens on how automated strategies are currently positioned across names like AJG and AON.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two names is strategic. AJG pursues growth primarily through a high-volume M&A playbook, layering many smaller acquisitions onto a brokerage and risk-management core. This approach can add revenue quickly but brings recurring integration work and a heavier reliance on deal execution. AON, by contrast, leans on a more centralized platform strategy, aiming to convert organic growth and restructuring savings into margin expansion.
On recent momentum, AJG has held the edge, with stronger one-month performance and a steadier trend above its short-term moving average. AON has posted stronger near-term fundamental beats but remains below prior highs, reflecting investor caution around integration costs and a softer insurance-pricing backdrop. Risk profiles also differ: AON carries a larger debt load relative to equity, while AJG faces execution risk tied to its large AssuredPartners integration. Both remain sensitive to commercial P&C pricing, which has been gradually decelerating.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward AJG. The model's preference rests less on any single data point than on the combination of steadier relative momentum, more consistent trend positioning above key moving averages, and a diversified catalyst set spanning acquisitions and fast-growing risk-management services. AON offers strong fundamentals and improving margins, but its weaker trailing trend and heavier integration burden weigh on the relative comparison. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting current market conditions and the balance of observable signals at this time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AJG is a Buy and AON is a Hold.
AJG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AJG turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AJG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AJG as a result. In 50 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
AJG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AJG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AJG advanced for three days, in 209 of 366 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 158 of 350 cases where AJG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 45%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AJG moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AJG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
AJG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AJG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.956) is normal, around the industry mean (2.673). P/E Ratio (44.828) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.899). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.679) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.042) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.021) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
AON in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
AON moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 29 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AON as a result. In 50 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AON just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where AON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The 10-day moving average for AON crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +3.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AON advanced for three days, in 147 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 122 of 276 cases where AON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 44%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for AON moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
AON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.297) is normal, around the industry mean (2.673). P/E Ratio (18.121) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.899). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.134) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.042) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.687) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
AJG | AON | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 51 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 23 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 45 | 45 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AON's Valuation (91) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AJG (97). This means that AON’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Profit vs Risk Rating (51) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AON (73). This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
AON's SMR Rating (23) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AJG (80). This means that AON’s stock grew somewhat faster than AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AON (42). This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AON’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AON (81). This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AON’s over the last 12 months.
| AJG | AON | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 46% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 51% | 10 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AJG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while AON’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AJG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- AON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AJG’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while AON’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AJG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- AON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AJG (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +5.58% price change this week, while AON (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +9.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +7.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +16.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
AJG is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
AON is expected to report earnings on Jan 29, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+7.42% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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AJG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AJG has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AJG jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AJG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJG | 100% | -1.95% | ||
| BRO - AJG | 83% Closely correlated | -1.34% | ||
| MRSH - AJG | 81% Closely correlated | -0.85% | ||
| AON - AJG | 73% Closely correlated | -0.97% | ||
| WTW - AJG | 71% Closely correlated | +0.66% | ||
| ERIE - AJG | 61% Loosely correlated | -1.56% | ||
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