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AJG vs AON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs. Aon plc (AON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AJG and AON are large insurance brokers facing a softening property and casualty (P&C) pricing environment, which has tempered organic revenue growth.
- AJG is leaning on an aggressive acquisition strategy and its fast-growing risk-management unit to offset cooling rates.
- AON offers greater global scale and superior operating margins, with a broader human-capital and health franchise.
- Both stocks have pulled back over the past year, with analyst price targets trimmed while ratings remain broadly positive.
- The relative performance and market positioning of the two names hinge on growth mix, margin durability, and capital deployment.
Introduction
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and Aon plc are two of the most closely followed names in insurance brokerage and risk management, making their side-by-side stock comparison a useful exercise for investors assessing sector leadership. This comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a diversified, acquisition-driven growth story against a global-scale operator with stronger profitability. Because the two firms compete for similar commercial clients yet pursue meaningfully different growth strategies, examining their recent market behavior, sentiment shifts, and relative performance can help readers evaluate which business model is better positioned in the current market environment.
AJG Overview and Recent Performance
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is a Rolling Meadows, Illinois-based insurance brokerage and risk-management firm. Its operations span retail property and casualty brokerage, wholesale, reinsurance, benefits, and the Gallagher Bassett claims-management business. In recent quarters, the company has leaned heavily on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), including its August 2025 purchase of middle-market broker AssuredPartners, to drive top-line expansion. First-quarter revenue climbed roughly 28% year over year on higher commissions and fees, though organic growth—a key measure of underlying momentum—came in around 5%.
Recent market activity has been shaped by cooling insurance pricing. Management has noted that only about one percentage point of organic growth now comes from higher rates, with property renewals declining while casualty rates rise modestly. As a result, AJG shares have declined over the past year, and several analysts trimmed price targets in recent weeks even while maintaining positive ratings. The stock's growth narrative now rests on the diversification provided by Gallagher Bassett and a steady pipeline of tuck-in acquisitions.
AON Overview and Recent Performance
Aon plc (AON) is a Dublin-headquartered global leader in risk management, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, and human-capital consulting. Its business is organized around Risk Capital and Human Capital solutions, with notable strength in commercial risk and reinsurance. In the first quarter, revenue rose about 6% to roughly $5 billion on 5% organic growth, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) advanced in the low double digits and the adjusted operating margin expanded to about 39%.
Recent market activity has reflected steady execution under the company's multi-year "3x3" restructuring plan and the ongoing integration of its NFP acquisition. Aon has also repositioned its portfolio by agreeing to sell a majority of NFP's wealth business, which contributed to softer Wealth Solutions results. Despite consistent new-business wins and strong client retention, AON shares have also declined over the past year, with some analysts lowering price targets while generally maintaining constructive ratings. The company continues to return substantial capital to shareholders through buybacks and consecutive double-digit dividend increases.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in scale and business mix. AON is the larger, more globally diversified firm, generating stronger operating margins and a broader footprint across commercial risk, reinsurance, and health and wealth consulting. AJG, by contrast, is more heavily weighted toward domestic brokerage and has carved out a differentiated niche through Gallagher Bassett, whose claims-management and analytics services grow independently of insurance pricing.
On growth drivers, AJG relies more on M&A to supplement organic expansion, while AON emphasizes margin expansion, restructuring savings, and capital returns. Both face the same sector headwind of softening commercial P&C pricing, but AJG's risk-management diversification offers some insulation, whereas AON's scale and cost discipline provide earnings resilience. Risk factors include integration execution, pricing deterioration, and, for AON, exposure to foreign-currency swings and the divested wealth segment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward AON in the current environment, reflecting its steadier margin trajectory, diversified global revenue base, and consistent execution under a disciplined restructuring plan. That said, AJG's faster-growing risk-management segment and active acquisition engine present meaningful catalysts that could support relative outperformance if organic growth reaccelerates. The verdict remains probabilistic rather than definitive, and the balance between these two high-quality franchises can shift as pricing conditions and M&A momentum evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AJG is a Hold and AON is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for AJG turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AJG saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 58 of the 85 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AJG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AJG just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AJG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +1.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AJG advanced for three days, in 213 of 375 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for AJG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AJG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
AJG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AJG entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AJG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.480) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (38.053) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.679) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.021) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
AON's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AON moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 25 of 53 cases where AON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AON just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where AON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +1.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AON advanced for three days, in 153 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AON as a result. In 48 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for AON entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.013) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (15.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.134) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.687) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
AJG | AON | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 5 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 23 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 91 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AON's Valuation (90) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AJG (91). This means that AON’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Profit vs Risk Rating (62) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AON (100). This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AON’s over the last 12 months.
AON's SMR Rating (23) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AJG (80). This means that AON’s stock grew somewhat faster than AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AON (64). This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AON (91). This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
| AJG | AON | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 57% | 10 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 49% | 14 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AJG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while AON’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AJG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- AON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AJG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while AON’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AJG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- AON’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AJG (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +4.38% price change this week, while AON (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +1.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was -1.46%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.50%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.19%.
Reported Earning Dates
AJG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
AON is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (-1.46% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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