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AJG vs AON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs. Aon plc (AON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) delivered exceptional top-line momentum in recent quarters, driven by an aggressive M&A (mergers and acquisitions) strategy that added over $3.5 billion in estimated annualized revenue during 2025.
- AON (Aon plc) demonstrated consistent mid-single-digit organic revenue growth with expanding adjusted operating margins, underpinned by its "Aon United" strategy and the 3x3 Plan.
- Both companies operate in the insurance brokerage and professional services sector, yet diverge meaningfully in growth strategy — AJG leans heavily on acquisitions, while AON emphasizes organic expansion and operational efficiency.
- AJG's revenue base is smaller but growing faster; AON's revenue base is nearly 25% larger with roughly $17.2 billion in full-year 2025 revenue, offering a more mature, steady-growth profile.
- Analyst consensus on both stocks has been broadly neutral in recent months, reflecting balanced outlooks amid elevated valuations across the insurance brokerage sector.
- From an AI-driven trend perspective, the more consistent organic growth and margin expansion at AON may present a steadier signal pattern, while AJG's acquisition-fueled surges introduce greater variability.
Introduction
Investors and traders evaluating the insurance brokerage and risk management space frequently encounter two dominant names: AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) and AON (Aon plc). Both are global leaders connecting businesses with insurance solutions, employee benefits consulting, and risk advisory services. Yet their growth playbooks, market footprints, and recent performance trajectories differ in ways that matter for portfolio positioning. This stock comparison examines how AJG and AON have navigated the current environment, what is shaping sentiment around each name, and which stock an AI-driven analytical framework might favor under today's market conditions.
AJG Overview and Recent Performance
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is a U.S.-headquartered global insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting firm that has built its reputation on a two-pronged growth model: organic expansion paired with an exceptionally active acquisition strategy. In recent weeks, AJG reported financial results highlighting over 30% total revenue growth in its most recent quarter, with combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments achieving 5% organic revenue growth. Full-year 2025 revenue reached approximately $13.7 billion, representing a 21% increase from the prior year.
The acquisition engine remains the headline story. AJG completed 31 acquisitions during 2025, bringing in more than $3.5 billion in estimated annualized revenue. The integration of large-scale transactions, including the AssuredPartners deal, has meaningfully expanded AJG's middle-market brokerage footprint. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 7.6% to $0.70 per share, signaling management confidence in cash flow generation. However, rising expenses tied to deal integration, workforce adjustments, and intangible amortization have pressured reported net earnings in the near term. Analysts at firms including Mizuho and UBS initiated or maintained neutral ratings on AJG in recent market activity, reflecting a view that the stock's valuation largely captures its growth potential.
AON Overview and Recent Performance
Aon plc is a Dublin-headquartered global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement, and health solutions. With full-year 2025 total revenue of $17.2 billion — a 9% increase year-over-year — AON is the larger of the two firms by revenue. What distinguishes AON in the current environment is the consistency of its organic revenue growth: 6% for the full year 2025, matching the prior year and marking a second consecutive year at that level.
AON's "Aon United" strategy, operationalized through its 3x3 Plan, has focused on data-driven insights delivered via Aon Business Services, helping clients navigate increasingly complex risk environments. The firm's adjusted operating margin expanded to 32.4% for the full year, while free cash flow grew 14% to $3.2 billion. AON paid down $1.9 billion in debt during 2025, meeting its leverage target, and returned capital through consistent share repurchases (approximately $250 million per quarter) and a dividend marking the 15th consecutive year of increases. For 2026, management has guided toward mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth and 70 to 80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion. The recent sale of NFP Wealth and associated restructuring contributed to a leaner operating profile entering the new year.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business Model and Scale. AJG generates the majority of its revenue through brokerage commissions and fees from insurance placement and risk management services, with a heavier tilt toward middle-market clients. AON operates at a larger scale with roughly $17.2 billion in annual revenue and a more diversified revenue mix that includes human capital solutions, retirement consulting, and health benefits alongside risk capital broking.
Growth Drivers. AJG's growth is disproportionately driven by M&A — the 31 deals completed in 2025 contributed over $3.5 billion in annualized revenue. Organic growth, at approximately 5–6%, is solid but secondary to the acquisition narrative. AON, by contrast, has delivered two consecutive years of 6% organic revenue growth while strategically executing tuck-in acquisitions in the middle market through its NFP integration, without relying on deal volume as the primary growth engine.
Margin Profiles. AON's adjusted operating margin of 32.4% for full-year 2025 outpaces AJG's adjusted EBITDAC (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and change in estimated acquisition earnout payables) margin, reflecting AON's scale advantages and restructuring savings. AJG's margins have been pressured by integration costs and higher amortization charges from its acquisition-heavy strategy, though underlying profitability remains robust.
Risk Factors. AJG carries elevated integration risk given the volume and size of recent acquisitions; execution missteps or cultural friction could slow momentum. The firm also faces property insurance pricing headwinds, with property lines decreasing roughly 5% in recent periods. AON's risks are more tied to macroeconomic sensitivity in its human capital segment and foreign currency translation exposure given its global footprint.
Market Sentiment. Both stocks have attracted predominantly neutral analyst ratings in recent months. AJG's strong growth is balanced against valuation concerns and integration complexity. AON's steadier profile garners appreciation for consistency but lacks the acquisition-driven upside surprise potential that periodically boosts AJG shares.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend characteristics — consistency of organic revenue growth, margin trajectory, free cash flow generation, and balance sheet discipline — Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely lean toward AON in the current market environment. The steadier, less acquisition-dependent growth pattern at AON tends to produce cleaner trend signals that AI models can track with fewer distortions from one-time integration charges or deal-related noise. AON's expanding adjusted operating margins, disciplined debt reduction, and clear 2026 guidance provide a more predictable path that trend-following algorithms generally favor. That said, AJG remains a compelling candidate for strategies tuned to momentum and event-driven catalysts — its acquisition pipeline and integration synergies could generate significant upside when deal-related costs normalize. As always, the AI verdict is probabilistic and contingent on evolving market data, not a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AJG is a Hold and AON is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AJG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileAON’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AJG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- AON’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AJG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while AON’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AJG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- AON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AJG (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а -2.41% price change this week, while AON (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was -1.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was -2.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
AJG is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
AON is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (-2.26% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
| AJG | AON | AJG / AON | |
| Capitalization | 63.7B | 77.3B | 82% |
| EBITDA | 3.89B | 6.77B | 57% |
| Gain YTD | -3.646 | 2.989 | -122% |
| P/E Ratio | 40.09 | 19.85 | 202% |
| Revenue | 15B | 17.5B | 86% |
| Total Cash | 1.41B | 1.42B | 100% |
| Total Debt | 13.4B | 15.5B | 86% |
AJG | AON | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 88 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 81 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 85 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 55 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AJG's Valuation (91) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AON (94). This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
AON's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AJG (59). This means that AON’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AON's SMR Rating (21) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AJG (81). This means that AON’s stock grew somewhat faster than AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AON's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AJG (47). This means that AON’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's P/E Growth Rating (67) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AON (85). This means that AJG’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
| AJG | AON | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 5 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 47% |
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AJG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AJG has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AJG jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AJG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJG | 100% | +2.30% | ||
| BRO - AJG | 80% Closely correlated | +2.92% | ||
| MRSH - AJG | 76% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| WTW - AJG | 74% Closely correlated | +2.34% | ||
| AON - AJG | 73% Closely correlated | +1.66% | ||
| ERIE - AJG | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.21% | ||
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AON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AON has been closely correlated with MRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AON jumps, then MRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | 100% | +1.66% | ||
| MRSH - AON | 81% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| AJG - AON | 77% Closely correlated | +2.30% | ||
| WTW - AON | 75% Closely correlated | +2.34% | ||
| BRO - AON | 73% Closely correlated | +2.92% | ||
| ERIE - AON | 48% Loosely correlated | +4.21% | ||
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