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AJG vs BRO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs. Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) has leaned on diversified growth, with its Risk Management segment expanding faster than core brokerage, helping offset softer insurance pricing.
- BRO (Brown & Brown, Inc.) has faced more pronounced pressure from declining catastrophe (CAT) property rates and flat organic growth, weighing on relative performance and market sentiment.
- Both companies are insurance brokers with similar business models, but AJG's broader revenue mix has supported more resilient momentum in recent market activity than BRO's retail-heavy profile.
- On valuation and sentiment, AJG trades at a premium multiple with stronger analyst support, while BRO has seen price targets trimmed as organic growth expectations reset lower.
- Acquisitions (M&A, or mergers and acquisitions) remain a central growth driver for both firms, though integration and rate-environment risks differ across their portfolios.
- For more detail on each name, explore AJG Major News and AJG Today's Price Move, as well as BRO Major News and BRO Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across these and other tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) and Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) are two of the most closely watched names in the U.S. insurance brokerage sector. Both generate revenue through commissions and fees by placing property, casualty, employee benefits, and specialty coverage for clients, and both have used acquisitions to scale. Investors comparing these stocks are typically seeking exposure to a resilient, fee-based financial services business, but the two firms differ meaningfully in their growth mix, recent momentum, and market positioning. This stock comparison examines relative performance, key drivers, and risk factors to help traders and long-term investors assess which profile better fits the current environment.
AJG Overview and Recent Performance
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. operates a large brokerage segment alongside Gallagher Bassett, its claims-management and risk-services arm. A defining feature of recent quarters has been the faster expansion of its Risk Management business, which has outpaced core brokerage organic growth and is less dependent on insurance-rate increases. In recent market activity, AJG has delivered double-digit revenue gains driven substantially by M&A, while organic growth has remained in the mid-single digits. The company has continued to complete tuck-in acquisitions and has signaled a sizable pipeline of future deals.
Sentiment has been generally constructive, with several sell-side firms maintaining favorable ratings and price targets through recent weeks. However, the stock has cooled from earlier strength, and a recent quarterly report showed lower net earnings despite higher revenue, reflecting integration costs and a moderating property-rate tailwind. Over a one-year horizon the share price has declined, even as longer-term returns remain positive, and the stock carries a premium valuation relative to the broader insurance industry.
BRO Overview and Recent Performance
Brown & Brown, Inc. markets and sells insurance products across retail, national programs, wholesale brokerage, and services segments in the United States and internationally. In recent quarters, BRO has reported strong total revenue growth driven largely by acquisitions, but organic revenue growth has been essentially flat, pressured by declining CAT property rates and a comparison against prior-year flood-claims activity. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and adjusted EBITDAC (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and acquisition-related charges) have continued to rise year over year.
The stock has experienced a notably sharper drawdown than its larger peer, falling more than a third over the past year and underperforming the broader market. Analysts have trimmed price targets and cited repeated organic-growth misses and property-rate pressure as key headwinds. At the same time, some analysts have recently initiated or upgraded coverage with more constructive views, pointing to improving organic-growth guidance, cost synergies from a major acquisition, and significant share-buyback capacity as potential catalysts for a re-rating.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a broad roster of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own strategy, timeframe, performance history, and universe of stocks. Because market conditions change frequently, only the strongest and most appropriate bots for the moment earn a place in the curated Trending AI Robots section. This curated list highlights bots with differentiated trading styles, risk profiles, and statistics, helping users scan for approaches aligned with their own goals. Whether a bot focuses on momentum, mean reversion, or longer-horizon positioning, each is built to respond to evolving market data. If you are evaluating how automated systems are currently positioned across names like AJG and BRO, reviewing the Trending AI Robots page offers a useful, data-driven starting point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between AJG and BRO lies in diversification and growth quality. AJG's Risk Management segment provides a revenue stream that is less sensitive to insurance pricing cycles, giving the company a steadier organic profile when property rates soften. BRO, by comparison, has a larger concentration in retail brokerage and program business, where declining CAT property rates and tougher comparisons have more directly pressured organic growth and margins.
On momentum and sentiment, the two names have diverged. AJG has held up relatively better in recent market activity and enjoys stronger near-term analyst backing, while BRO has suffered a steeper decline and more aggressive price-target reductions, even as some analysts see value after the selloff. Both companies rely heavily on acquisitions to fuel top-line growth, which introduces integration risk, but AJG's broader footprint and technology investments have positioned it more defensively. Valuation also differs: AJG trades at a premium, while BRO's compressed multiple reflects reset expectations. Risk factors for both include softening insurance rates, acquisition integration, and broader economic sensitivity in client hiring and investment activity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability of organic growth, diversification of revenue, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AJG in the current environment. The company's faster-growing Risk Management segment and steadier organic profile provide a more resilient foundation when insurance pricing is softening, and its relative price stability and stronger analyst sentiment suggest more consistent trend alignment. BRO carries the potential for a re-rating if organic growth inflects and buybacks accelerate, but its steeper drawdown and repeated organic-growth misses currently signal less favorable positioning. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current conditions rather than a definitive or permanent conclusion.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AJG is a Buy and BRO is a Buy.
AJG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AJG turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AJG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AJG as a result. In 50 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
AJG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AJG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AJG advanced for three days, in 209 of 366 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 158 of 350 cases where AJG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 45%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AJG moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AJG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
AJG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AJG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.956) is normal, around the industry mean (2.673). P/E Ratio (44.828) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.899). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.679) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.042) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.021) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
BRO's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BRO turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where BRO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 31 of 46 cases where BRO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BRO as a result. In 42 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
BRO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BRO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +5.96% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BRO advanced for three days, in 174 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 177 of 308 cases where BRO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BRO moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 46 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BRO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
BRO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BRO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.886) is normal, around the industry mean (2.673). P/E Ratio (19.866) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.899). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.910) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.042) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.322) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BRO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
AJG | BRO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 51 | 85 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 71 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 66 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 45 | 47 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BRO's Valuation (82) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AJG (97). This means that BRO’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Profit vs Risk Rating (51) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BRO (85). This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than BRO’s over the last 12 months.
BRO's SMR Rating (71) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as AJG (80). This means that BRO’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BRO (41). This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than BRO’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BRO (66). This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than BRO’s over the last 12 months.
| AJG | BRO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 51% | 8 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AJG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while BRO’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AJG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- BRO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AJG’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BRO’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AJG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- BRO’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AJG (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +5.58% price change this week, while BRO (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +4.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +6.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +16.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.93%.
Reported Earning Dates
AJG is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
BRO is expected to report earnings on Jan 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+6.96% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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AJG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AJG has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AJG jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AJG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJG | 100% | -1.95% | ||
| BRO - AJG | 83% Closely correlated | -1.34% | ||
| MRSH - AJG | 81% Closely correlated | -0.85% | ||
| AON - AJG | 73% Closely correlated | -0.97% | ||
| WTW - AJG | 71% Closely correlated | +0.66% | ||
| ERIE - AJG | 61% Loosely correlated | -1.56% | ||
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BRO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BRO has been closely correlated with AJG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BRO jumps, then AJG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BRO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRO | 100% | -1.34% | ||
| AJG - BRO | 83% Closely correlated | -1.95% | ||
| MRSH - BRO | 81% Closely correlated | -0.85% | ||
| RYAN - BRO | 69% Closely correlated | +0.55% | ||
| GSHD - BRO | 67% Closely correlated | +1.71% | ||
| WTW - BRO | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.66% | ||
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