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AJG vs WTW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) vs. Willis Towers Watson (WTW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AJG and WTW operate in insurance brokerage, risk management, and advisory services, but their growth engines and market positioning differ meaningfully.
- Arthur J. Gallagher has leaned heavily on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), while Willis Towers Watson has prioritized organic efficiency and margin expansion through its Propel initiative.
- WTW has recently posted stronger relative earnings momentum, including double-digit adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) growth, while AJG continues to scale through acquisitions.
- AJG trades at a notably higher price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation than WTW, a key point of contrast in this stock comparison.
- Both names carry a consensus "Buy" rating, though analyst price targets imply different magnitudes of implied upside.
Introduction
Investors comparing AJG and WTW are essentially weighing two different strategies within the same broad insurance and advisory sector. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is widely regarded as a serial acquirer that compounds through a steady pipeline of brokerage deals, while Willis Towers Watson has positioned itself around technology-enabled advisory, broking, and solutions work. This stock comparison is especially relevant for investors assessing relative performance, valuation, and market positioning among insurance-services leaders. Understanding how these two firms generate growth, manage margins, and respond to a softer property-and-casualty pricing cycle can help traders and long-term investors decide where each name fits within a diversified portfolio.
AJG Overview and Recent Performance
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is a global insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting firm with two primary segments: Brokerage and Risk Management. Its growth model is anchored in a disciplined acquisition strategy, complemented by mid-single-digit organic growth. In recent quarters, management outlined capacity to deploy up to roughly $10 billion toward M&A over a two-year period, supported by a pipeline of term sheets and tuck-in deals.
Recent market activity has been mixed. The stock has faced pressure at various points in recent months as investors digested softer insurance pricing, particularly in commercial property, and a moderation in organic growth from prior double-digit levels. Some analysts have trimmed price targets while retaining constructive ratings, and at least one firm upgraded the shares. Valuation remains a central debate: AJG's trailing P/E multiple has hovered well above the insurance-broker peer average, which means the stock carries a higher bar for continued execution. Dividend growth and share repurchases continue to reflect management's confidence in long-term cash generation.
WTW Overview and Recent Performance
Willis Towers Watson (WTW) is an advisory, broking, and solutions company organized around two segments: Health, Wealth & Career, and Risk & Broking. Its strategy emphasizes organic growth, operating leverage, and technology adoption rather than a heavy reliance on large-scale M&A. In its most recent quarterly results, WTW reported mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, roughly 100 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, and double-digit growth in adjusted diluted EPS.
A defining recent development is the Propel program, an efficiency initiative aimed at automation and artificial intelligence adoption, with management targeting meaningful run-rate savings and an enterprise adjusted operating margin near 30% by 2028. Recent performance, however, has also shown softer spots: in the first quarter, organic growth briefly trailed several broking peers, and discretionary advisory work faced geopolitical headwinds in the Middle East. Analysts have issued a mix of target cuts and rating upgrades, and the shares carry a consensus "Buy" rating with a price target implying roughly high-teens percentage upside.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies operate in the same sector, their business models diverge in ways that shape their risk and reward profiles. AJG is an acquisition-led compounder: inorganic growth has contributed meaningfully to reported revenue, and its brokerage and risk-management arms benefit from a steady stream of tuck-in deals. That model supports top-line scale but also introduces integration risk and, in the current environment, sensitivity to softer premium pricing.
WTW, by contrast, emphasizes organic growth and margin discipline, with the Propel program targeting cost savings that management expects to convert into operating-margin expansion. Its Health, Wealth & Career segment offers diversification beyond traditional property-and-casualty broking, which can smooth cyclicality but also exposes the firm to discretionary advisory spending that fluctuates with client confidence.
On valuation, the contrast is stark: AJG has historically traded at a meaningfully higher P/E multiple than WTW, reflecting investor confidence in its acquisition engine but also leaving less room for error. WTW's lower multiple and margin-expansion narrative may appeal to investors focused on valuation and operating leverage. On momentum, both names have shown periods of volatility tied to insurance-pricing trends and analyst revisions, with neither consistently leading the other across recent weeks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely view WTW as having a modest near-term edge in this comparison. Its combination of steady organic growth, a clearly defined margin-expansion roadmap through Propel, and a lower valuation relative to AJG suggests a more balanced risk-reward profile in the current environment. The AI would also weigh WTW's more diversified revenue mix and its potential for efficiency-driven earnings growth against AJG's stronger acquisition momentum and higher multiple. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: if AJG's M&A pipeline converts at attractive multiples and insurance pricing stabilizes, its higher-growth profile could reassert itself. Investors should treat this as a framework for evaluating relative positioning rather than a fixed recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AJG is a StrongBuy and WTW is a StrongBuy.
AJG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
AJG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 31 of 45 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AJG as a result. In 56 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AJG just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AJG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The 10-day moving average for AJG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +7.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AJG advanced for three days, in 208 of 369 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AJG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
AJG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AJG entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AJG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.897) is normal, around the industry mean (2.671). P/E Ratio (43.941) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.376). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.679) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.045) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.021) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
WTW's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WTW turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where WTW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WTW as a result. In 59 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
WTW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WTW advanced for three days, in 143 of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WTW moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 47%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for WTW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 4 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 31%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WTW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
WTW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for WTW entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. WTW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.926) is normal, around the industry mean (2.671). P/E Ratio (20.050) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.376). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.265) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.045) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.990) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AJG | WTW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 45 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 47 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 28 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WTW's Valuation (82) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as AJG (97) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
WTW's Profit vs Risk Rating (45) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as AJG (53) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
WTW's SMR Rating (47) in the Other Consumer Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AJG (80) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew somewhat faster than AJG’s over the last 12 months.
WTW's Price Growth Rating (28) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as AJG (40) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew similarly to AJG’s over the last 12 months.
AJG's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WTW (96) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that AJG’s stock grew somewhat faster than WTW’s over the last 12 months.
| AJG | WTW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 56% | 9 days ago 46% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 49% | 20 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 40% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AJG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while WTW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AJG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WTW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AJG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AJG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WTW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AJG (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +5.16% price change this week, while WTW (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +3.02% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +5.94%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.72%.
Reported Earning Dates
AJG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
WTW is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+5.94% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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AJG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AJG has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AJG jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AJG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJG | 100% | -1.08% | ||
| BRO - AJG | 83% Closely correlated | -2.04% | ||
| MRSH - AJG | 80% Closely correlated | -0.90% | ||
| AON - AJG | 73% Closely correlated | -1.07% | ||
| WTW - AJG | 72% Closely correlated | -2.16% | ||
| ERIE - AJG | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.28% | ||
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WTW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WTW has been closely correlated with AJG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WTW jumps, then AJG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WTW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTW | 100% | -2.16% | ||
| AJG - WTW | 71% Closely correlated | -1.08% | ||
| AON - WTW | 68% Closely correlated | -1.07% | ||
| MRSH - WTW | 67% Closely correlated | -0.90% | ||
| BRO - WTW | 66% Loosely correlated | -2.04% | ||
| RYAN - WTW | 50% Loosely correlated | -1.82% | ||
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