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AON vs WTW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Aon plc (AON) vs. Willis Towers Watson (WTW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AON and WTW are both global risk, insurance brokerage, and human capital consulting firms, yet they occupy different positions in the market by scale and margin profile.
- Both stocks have declined roughly 20% or more year-to-date amid softening insurance pricing and a risk-off shift in financial-services equities.
- Aon plc delivers a larger revenue base and stronger operating margins, while Willis Towers Watson is pursuing a multi-year, AI-driven efficiency program to close that gap.
- Recent relative performance has been comparable, with sentiment diverging on catalysts: Aon's capital returns versus WTW's cost-savings roadmap.
- Analysts have trimmed price targets on both names, though WTW received several upgrades while Aon's ratings have held broadly neutral.
Introduction
Investors screening the insurance brokerage and professional services sector frequently weigh AON against WTW, two multinationals that blend risk advisory, insurance broking, and human capital consulting. This stock comparison is relevant for investors seeking defensive, fee-based business models with global diversification, as well as for traders evaluating relative momentum between two names that have followed similar downward paths in recent months. Understanding each firm's growth drivers, margin trajectory, and market positioning can clarify why these otherwise comparable companies may warrant different treatment in a portfolio.
AON Overview and Recent Performance
Aon plc (AON) is a Dublin-headquartered provider of risk and human capital solutions operating in over 120 countries. Recent market activity has been challenging for the stock, which has shed more than 20% of its value year-to-date, pressured by broader sentiment shifts in financial-services and insurance-related equities.
Fundamentally, Aon's recent results have been steady. First-quarter revenue rose 6% to about $5.0 billion with 5% organic growth, and adjusted operating margin reached 39.1%. Strength was concentrated in Risk Capital, where Commercial Risk Solutions posted 7% organic growth, while the Wealth Solutions line remained soft, partly reflecting the divestiture of the NFP wealth business. Second-quarter revenue growth slowed to 2% amid continued Wealth weakness. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance for mid-single-digit organic growth and raised its dividend 10%, the sixth consecutive double-digit increase. Analysts have nonetheless trimmed targets, with BMO Capital lowering its price objective while maintaining a Market Perform rating.
WTW Overview and Recent Performance
Willis Towers Watson (WTW) provides data-driven advisory, broking, and solutions services across people, risk, and capital, serving 140 countries. Its shares have also declined more than 20% year-to-date, reflecting a similar de-rating across the sector alongside company-specific headwinds.
WTW's recent results show an improving margin story. First-quarter organic revenue growth was 3%, with adjusted operating margin of 22.3% and adjusted earnings per share up 19%. Second-quarter organic growth accelerated to 5%, with Risk & Broking up 7% and adjusted operating margin rising 100 basis points to 19.5%. The company introduced "Propel," an AI acceleration plan targeting roughly $400 million in run-rate savings by 2028 and a 30% enterprise adjusted operating margin. Headwinds include geopolitical disruption affecting its Middle East Career business and a competitive pricing environment in broking. Notably, Citigroup and BMO Capital each upgraded WTW in recent weeks, and the stock trades below its average analyst price target.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly on scale and profitability. AON generates roughly twice WTW's quarterly revenue and operates with an adjusted margin near 39%, well above WTW's roughly 19-22% range. This reflects Aon's heavier weighting toward higher-margin commercial risk and reinsurance broking. WTW, by contrast, carries a larger human capital and benefits footprint, which is more revenue-diverse but lower-margin.
Growth drivers also diverge. Aon's momentum leans on Risk Capital new business, retention, and disciplined capital returns, though divestitures have muted reported growth. WTW's catalyst is self-improvement: the Propel program targets meaningful margin expansion by 2028, a longer-horizon story with execution risk and near-term cash costs. On risk factors, both face softening insurance pricing and a softer M&A (mergers and acquisitions) environment, but WTW carries added exposure to geopolitical disruption in the Middle East.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and catalyst positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AON on a defensive basis, given its higher and more established margins, steadier organic growth in core Risk Capital lines, and consistent shareholder returns. However, the probability is not overwhelming: WTW presents a clearer forward catalyst through its Propel efficiency plan and has attracted recent analyst upgrades, suggesting stronger upside potential if execution meets targets. A momentum-oriented model might lean toward WTW for its improving margin trajectory, while a stability-focused model would likely tilt toward AON. The relative positioning remains close, and the balance could shift as each company's catalysts play out.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AON is a Hold and WTW is a Hold.
AON's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AON moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 25 of 53 cases where AON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AON just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where AON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +1.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AON advanced for three days, in 153 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AON as a result. In 48 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for AON entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.013) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (15.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.134) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.687) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
WTW's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WTW turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where WTW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where WTW's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WTW as a result. In 61 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +1.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WTW advanced for three days, in 143 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
WTW moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WTW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 2 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 15%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WTW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for WTW entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WTW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.529) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (18.084) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.265) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.990) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AON | WTW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 4 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | 47 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WTW's Valuation (79) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as AON (90) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
WTW's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Other Consumer Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AON (100) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew somewhat faster than AON’s over the last 12 months.
AON's SMR Rating (23) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as WTW (47) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that AON’s stock grew similarly to WTW’s over the last 12 months.
WTW's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as AON (64) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew similarly to AON’s over the last 12 months.
AON's P/E Growth Rating (91) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as WTW (100) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that AON’s stock grew similarly to WTW’s over the last 12 months.
| AON | WTW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 47% | 15 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 53% | 11 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 35% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WTW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WTW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AON’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AON’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WTW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AON (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +1.80% price change this week, while WTW (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +2.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was -1.46%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.50%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.19%.
Reported Earning Dates
AON is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
WTW is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (-1.46% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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WTW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WTW has been closely correlated with AJG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WTW jumps, then AJG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WTW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTW | 100% | +0.01% | ||
| AJG - WTW | 71% Closely correlated | +1.78% | ||
| AON - WTW | 68% Closely correlated | +0.23% | ||
| MRSH - WTW | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| BRO - WTW | 64% Loosely correlated | +1.17% | ||
| RYAN - WTW | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.40% | ||
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