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GSHD vs WTW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) vs. Willis Towers Watson (WTW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different scale and models: GSHD is a roughly $1.6 billion-market-cap, tech-enabled personal lines insurance distributor, while WTW is a roughly $20 billion-plus global advisory, broking, and consulting firm.
- Growth vs. stability: GSHD is growing revenue at a double-digit pace but with elevated volatility and a heavier debt load; WTW delivers steadier, mid-single-digit organic growth with expanding margins.
- Momentum contrast: GSHD has faced recent analyst downgrades and price-target cuts, while WTW has drawn upgrades and a firmer institutional footing.
- AI angle differs: GSHD is investing in a digital agent platform, while WTW has launched a formal "Propel" AI efficiency program targeting significant run-rate savings.
- Risk profiles diverge: GSHD carries negative book value and a beta near 1.45, whereas WTW offers positive equity, buybacks, and a comparatively lower valuation multiple.
Introduction
Investors weighing growth-oriented insurance technology against an established global brokerage often land on a comparison between Goosehead Insurance and Willis Towers Watson. Although both operate within the broader insurance ecosystem, they sit at opposite ends of the spectrum in size, maturity, and market positioning. This stock comparison is relevant to traders evaluating relative performance and momentum, as well as long-term investors assessing business-model durability, growth drivers, and risk. By examining recent market activity, financial results, and observable sentiment shifts, this article offers a balanced view of how GSHD and WTW currently stack up.
GSHD Overview and Recent Performance
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency that distributes home, auto, and related products through corporate and franchise locations across the United States, partnering with more than 200 carriers. Its growth strategy emphasizes a technology-enabled platform and an expanding producer network. In its most recent quarterly results, GSHD reported total revenue up 23% year over year, with net income rising to $8.0 million from $2.6 million a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) up 57%.
Despite strong operating momentum, sentiment has cooled in recent weeks. Several firms have trimmed price targets or ratings, citing higher mortgage rates that could restrain new sales productivity and significant technology investments that limit near-term margin expansion. The shares trade well below their 52-week high, and the company carries a notable debt load alongside negative book value. A planned CEO transition and continued share repurchases add to the evolving narrative as investors weigh growth against financial leverage.
WTW Overview and Recent Performance
Willis Towers Watson is a global advisory, broking, and solutions company serving clients in risk management, benefits, and human capital. Its two core segments—Risk & Broking and Health, Wealth & Career—generate revenue across more than 140 countries. In recent quarters, WTW has posted consistent organic revenue growth in the mid-single digits, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising double digits and adjusted operating margin expanding.
Recent developments include the announcement of "Propel," an AI-driven efficiency program targeting roughly $400 million in run-rate savings by 2028, and a push toward an approximately 30% adjusted operating margin. The company has also advanced acquisitions, including full ownership of a Middle East joint venture. In recent market activity, WTW shares have drawn analyst upgrades and generally constructive price targets, though some headwinds—such as softer new-business activity and competitive pricing in parts of its brokerage segment—have kept growth measured rather than explosive.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in business model and risk exposure. GSHD is a high-growth, commission-and-fee-driven distributor that scales through agents and franchises, making it sensitive to housing turnover, mortgage rates, and technology spending. Its higher beta and negative book value signal greater volatility and financial leverage. WTW, by contrast, generates diversified advisory and brokerage income across geographies and product lines, with steadier cash flow, a share-repurchase program, and a lower earnings multiple.
On growth, GSHD has the edge in revenue expansion, while WTW leads on margin expansion, cash generation, and balance-sheet stability. Recent momentum also diverges: GSHD has faced a cluster of downgrades and price-target reductions, whereas WTW has received upgrades and maintains broader institutional support. In short, investors choosing between the two are effectively trading high-octane growth potential against more predictable, diversified earnings power.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward WTW in the current environment. WTW demonstrates more consistent trend characteristics, expanding margins, positive cash flow, and a clearer near-term catalyst in its AI-driven efficiency program, all of which support steadier positioning. GSHD retains a stronger growth profile but currently exhibits weaker technical signals, higher leverage, and negative book value, which temper its attractiveness in a probabilistic model. This assessment reflects relative trend stability and positioning rather than a definitive prediction of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GSHD is a StrongBuy and WTW is a Buy.
GSHD's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GSHD turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where GSHD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GSHD's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 29 of 38 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GSHD as a result. In 62 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +7.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GSHD advanced for three days, in 229 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 57 cases where GSHD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GSHD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
GSHD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GSHD entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GSHD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: GSHD's P/B Ratio (-10.874) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.657). P/E Ratio (35.909) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.633). GSHD's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (76.820) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.322). GSHD's Dividend Yield (0.460) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.043). P/S Ratio (5.184) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GSHD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
WTW in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
WTW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 23 of 33 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WTW as a result. In 62 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WTW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where WTW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The 10-day moving average for WTW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +1.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WTW advanced for three days, in 144 of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 145 of 272 cases where WTW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WTW moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 41%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 70 cases where WTW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WTW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
WTW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WTW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.932) is normal, around the industry mean (2.657). P/E Ratio (20.081) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.633). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.265) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.990) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
GSHD | WTW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 47 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 84 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WTW's Valuation (81) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as GSHD (95) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
WTW's Profit vs Risk Rating (48) in the Other Consumer Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GSHD (100) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew somewhat faster than GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
GSHD's SMR Rating (19) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry is in the same range as WTW (47) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that GSHD’s stock grew similarly to WTW’s over the last 12 months.
WTW's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Other Consumer Services industry is in the same range as GSHD (60) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew similarly to GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
WTW's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Other Consumer Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for GSHD (84) in the Insurance Brokers Or Services industry. This means that WTW’s stock grew significantly faster than GSHD’s over the last 12 months.
| GSHD | WTW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 76% | 8 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GSHD’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WTW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GSHD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WTW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GSHD’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GSHD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WTW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GSHD (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +7.16% price change this week, while WTW (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +0.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was +2.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
GSHD is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
WTW is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (+2.04% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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GSHD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GSHD has been loosely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GSHD jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GSHD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSHD | 100% | +7.87% | ||
| BRO - GSHD | 65% Loosely correlated | +3.04% | ||
| TWFG - GSHD | 63% Loosely correlated | +6.08% | ||
| AJG - GSHD | 59% Loosely correlated | +1.02% | ||
| AON - GSHD | 52% Loosely correlated | +3.91% | ||
| MRSH - GSHD | 51% Loosely correlated | +2.37% | ||
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WTW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WTW has been closely correlated with AJG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WTW jumps, then AJG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WTW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTW | 100% | +0.34% | ||
| AJG - WTW | 71% Closely correlated | +1.02% | ||
| AON - WTW | 68% Closely correlated | +3.91% | ||
| MRSH - WTW | 68% Closely correlated | +2.37% | ||
| BRO - WTW | 65% Loosely correlated | +3.04% | ||
| GSHD - WTW | 50% Loosely correlated | +7.87% | ||
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