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ALK vs LTM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alaska Air Group (ALK) vs. LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ALK and LTM are airline operators confronting the same macro headwind — sharply higher jet fuel costs — yet their financial results have diverged sharply.
- LTM (LATAM Airlines Group) has remained solidly profitable and continues generating strong cash flow, while ALK (Alaska Air Group) has swung to losses under fuel pressure.
- LTM recently earned credit-rating upgrades to BB+ from both S&P Global and Fitch, while ALK's leverage has risen and its full-year guidance points to an adjusted loss.
- Both names enjoy healthy revenue, premium, and loyalty-program momentum, but LTM demonstrates greater earnings stability and balance-sheet strength in the current environment.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Between the two, LTM is the favored ticker based on trend consistency, profitability, and relative financial positioning.
- For more detail, explore ALK Major News and ALK Today's Price Move, as well as LTM Major News and LTM Today's Price Move.
- To see which strategies the market's strongest automated systems are running right now, explore the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors comparing ALK and LTM are effectively weighing two very different airline investment profiles. Alaska Air Group (NYSE: ALK) is a Seattle-based U.S. carrier combining Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines, while LATAM Airlines Group (NYSE: LTM) is the largest airline group across Latin America, operating through a diversified network spanning Brazil, Chile, Peru, and beyond. Both stocks face the same powerful cost headwind — a sharp, industry-wide surge in jet fuel prices — yet their profitability, balance sheets, and market positioning tell contrasting stories. This stock comparison is relevant for traders seeking relative performance signals and for longer-horizon investors evaluating resilience, momentum, and financial quality across two of the world's most prominent airline operators.
ALK Overview and Recent Performance
ALK, or Alaska Air Group, has been executing a strategic transformation centered on premium cabins, its Atmos Rewards loyalty program, and an expanding international network from its Seattle hub, including new long-haul routes and plans to join the oneworld Atlantic and Pacific joint businesses. Revenue momentum has been robust in recent quarters, with premium revenue now representing more than a third of total revenue and loyalty cash remuneration growing at a double-digit rate. However, sharply higher fuel costs have overwhelmed these gains. In its most recent quarter, ALK posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss, and management guided toward a full-year adjusted loss as an estimated $1.8 billion in incremental fuel expense weighs on profitability. Leverage metrics have risen, and the company's 52-week range reflects meaningful volatility, though Wall Street's consensus rating remains a "Buy" with an average price target well above recent trading levels.
LTM Overview and Recent Performance
LTM, or LATAM Airlines Group, operates a diversified network of passenger and cargo services across Latin America, supported by its LATAM Pass loyalty program, which now counts tens of millions of members. Despite a more than 50% year-over-year increase in average fuel prices, LTM delivered rising revenue and positive net income in its latest quarter, supported by disciplined capacity management, premium growth, and cost containment. The company lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) outlook in response to fuel costs but simultaneously raised its revenue forecast, reflecting resilient demand. Notably, both S&P Global and Fitch upgraded LTM's credit rating to BB+, and the group maintains a conservative adjusted net leverage ratio alongside strong liquidity, underscoring a more defensive financial profile.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies are airlines, their business models and risk profiles differ meaningfully. ALK is a premium-focused, primarily domestic U.S. carrier reinvesting heavily in international expansion, loyalty, and product upgrades — a growth-oriented strategy that leaves it more exposed to near-term fuel volatility. LTM operates a broader, more diversified Latin American network with a substantial cargo business and a disciplined cost base, which has allowed it to remain profitable even as fuel prices climbed. On momentum, ALK shows strong unit-revenue and yield growth, but its earnings are currently negative, and leverage has risen. LTM pairs strong revenue growth with positive net income, healthy cash flow, and improving credit ratings. In terms of risk, ALK carries elevated leverage and loss-making near-term economics, while LTM faces currency volatility and regional macro exposure but maintains a stronger liquidity and leverage position.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — trend consistency, earnings stability, balance-sheet quality, and relative positioning — Tickeron's AI would likely favor LTM in the current environment. LTM has sustained profitability and positive cash flow despite the same fuel shock that pushed ALK into losses, and it enters this period with lower leverage and freshly upgraded credit ratings. While ALK retains meaningful long-term upside potential through its premium and international strategy, its near-term earnings profile is more fragile. A probabilistic, trend-aware model would therefore lean toward LTM as the more stable and resilient candidate, without ruling out a rotation back toward ALK if fuel conditions normalize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALK is a Buy and LTM is a Buy.
ALK in +7.75% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where ALK advanced for three days, in 218 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ALK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ALK as a result. In 51 of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ALK just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where ALK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
ALK moved above its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
ALK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ALK entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 7 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.184) is normal, around the industry mean (2.379). ALK has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-24.491) as compared to the industry average of (6.762). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.310) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.308) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ALK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ALK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
LTM's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for LTM moved out of oversold territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 8 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 7 of the 8 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LTM as a result. In 37 of 44 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LTM just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where LTM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 17 of 21 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
LTM moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.46% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LTM advanced for three days, in 110 of 148 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LTM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
LTM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LTM entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. LTM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.839) is normal, around the industry mean (2.379). P/E Ratio (8.811) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.762). LTM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (13.980) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
ALK | LTM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALK's Valuation (7) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for LTM (78). This means that ALK’s stock grew significantly faster than LTM’s over the last 12 months.
LTM's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for ALK (100). This means that LTM’s stock grew significantly faster than ALK’s over the last 12 months.
LTM's SMR Rating (13) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for ALK (92). This means that LTM’s stock grew significantly faster than ALK’s over the last 12 months.
LTM's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALK (55). This means that LTM’s stock grew similarly to ALK’s over the last 12 months.
LTM's P/E Growth Rating (73) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALK (98). This means that LTM’s stock grew similarly to ALK’s over the last 12 months.
| ALK | LTM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 74% | 17 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while LTM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ALK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LTM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALK’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LTM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LTM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ALK (@Airlines) experienced а +12.94% price change this week, while LTM (@Airlines) price change was +13.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +14.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALK is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+14.84% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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ALK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALK has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALK jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ALK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK | 100% | -0.38% | ||
| AAL - ALK | 79% Closely correlated | -0.35% | ||
| ULCC - ALK | 67% Closely correlated | -3.11% | ||
| LTM - ALK | 64% Loosely correlated | -1.19% | ||
| VLRS - ALK | 57% Loosely correlated | +2.74% | ||
| SRFM - ALK | 29% Poorly correlated | +5.20% | ||
More | ||||
LTM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LTM has been closely correlated with CPA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LTM jumps, then CPA could also see price increases.
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