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LTM vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? LATAM Airlines Group (LTM) vs. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LTM and UAL are both full-service network carriers, yet they operate in very different geographic and competitive markets: Latin America versus the United States.
- Both stocks are being pressured by a sharp rise in jet fuel costs tied to Middle East instability, which has compressed margins and prompted guidance revisions.
- UAL carries a "Strong Buy" analyst consensus and a substantially larger market capitalization, while LTM trades at a lower valuation and offers a dividend yield.
- Revenue and passenger demand have remained resilient at both airlines, but neither has fully offset the fuel cost shock in recent results.
- Relative performance has diverged: LTM has pulled back from highs reached earlier in the year, while UAL has retraced part of a post-war selloff.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines LTM, the New York-listed American Depositary Receipt (ADR, a certificate representing shares of a foreign company) of LATAM Airlines Group, and UAL, United Airlines Holdings. Both are global airline businesses, yet they serve different regions, fleets, and investor bases. The comparison is most relevant for investors weighing two carriers navigating the same macro headwind—elevated fuel prices—from different market positions. Traders focused on momentum and volatility may also find the contrast useful, as one name has shown greater relative strength while the other offers a lower valuation and income component.
LTM Overview and Recent Performance
LATAM Airlines Group is the largest airline group in Latin America, operating passenger and cargo services across South America and international routes. Recent market activity has been shaped by strong operational execution against a tougher fuel backdrop. The company's first-quarter results beat consensus, with earnings and revenue improving year over year, and passenger revenue growth outpacing a roughly 10% expansion in capacity, as measured by available seat-kilometers (ASKs, a measure of airline capacity).
However, sentiment has cooled in recent weeks. The company lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) guidance, citing a sharp increase in expected jet fuel prices. Shares pulled back from earlier highs and have been trading below key longer-term moving averages, reflecting investor caution about fuel-driven margin compression. LTM nevertheless retains a comparatively low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and a dividend yield that distinguishes it from many U.S. peers.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings is one of the largest U.S. carriers, operating a broad domestic and international network with hubs across the United States. Recent performance reflects resilient demand but meaningful cost pressure. United has reported record quarterly revenue, driven by double-digit growth in passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM, a key measure of unit revenue), while cargo revenue has lagged.
The company reduced its full-year earnings guidance after fuel prices rose sharply, and adjusted operating margin narrowed year over year. Still, analysts remain broadly constructive, maintaining a "Strong Buy" consensus rating with an average price target well above recent trading levels. The stock has rebounded from its post-conflict lows in recent weeks but remains below its 52-week high. United's scale—roughly $19.6 billion of available liquidity and a larger revenue base—supports its ability to manage fuel volatility, though higher leverage remains part of its risk profile.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two is scale and geography. UAL is a U.S.-based global network carrier with roughly four times the revenue of LTM, deeper liquidity, and greater analyst coverage. LTM is a regional leader in Latin America with a leaner cost position, a lower valuation multiple, and a shareholder dividend.
On growth drivers, both rely on resilient passenger demand and premium and loyalty revenue, but UAL benefits from a more diversified revenue mix across U.S. and international markets. On momentum, LTM has shown softer recent price action and is trading below its 200-day moving average, while UAL has recovered more steadily from its lows. Key risk factors are shared—fuel prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and labor costs—but LTM adds exposure to Latin American currency and economic conditions, whereas UAL faces higher leverage and domestic capacity competition.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward UAL in the current environment. United's price action has shown comparatively greater relative strength and a steadier recovery from its recent trough, supported by a "Strong Buy" consensus and resilient unit-revenue trends. LTM offers a lower valuation and income appeal, but its weaker recent momentum and below-trend technical positioning reduce its current attractiveness to trend-following models. This is a probabilistic read on market positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and conditions can shift quickly with fuel prices and geopolitical developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LTM is a StrongBuy and UAL is a Hold.
LTM's Stochastic Oscillator sits in oversold zone for 5 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +1.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LTM advanced for three days, in 110 of 145 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
LTM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LTM as a result. In 28 of 42 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LTM turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 19 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 13 of the 19 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
LTM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LTM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for LTM entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LTM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LTM's P/B Ratio (6.899) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.838). P/E Ratio (8.889) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.620). LTM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (13.980) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
UAL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for UAL entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 156 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 119 of the 156 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UAL as a result. In 60 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UAL turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAL advanced for three days, in 235 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
UAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 17 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.976) is normal, around the industry mean (1.838). P/E Ratio (9.423) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.620). UAL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.503) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.252). UAL's Dividend Yield (0.085) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (0.552) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
LTM | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 47 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 17 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UAL's Valuation (62) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LTM (78). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to LTM’s over the last 12 months.
LTM's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (47). This means that LTM’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
LTM's SMR Rating (13) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (42). This means that LTM’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
LTM's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (60). This means that LTM’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LTM (69). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to LTM’s over the last 12 months.
| LTM | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LTM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UAL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- LTM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LTM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LTM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
LTM (@Airlines) experienced а +1.63% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was +2.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +0.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.96%.
Reported Earning Dates
LTM is expected to report earnings on Nov 13, 2026.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+0.23% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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LTM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LTM has been closely correlated with CPA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LTM jumps, then CPA could also see price increases.