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AMBA vs MTSI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ambarella (AMBA) vs. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTSI has delivered superior year-to-date performance at 72.14% compared to AMBA's near-flat 0.21% return, highlighting stronger momentum in recent market activity.
- Both stocks have shown robust short-term gains, with AMBA up approximately 29% over the past month and MTSI around 26%, driven by semiconductor sector tailwinds.
- MTSI boasts a larger market capitalization of $22.1 billion versus AMBA's $3.1 billion, reflecting greater scale and investor confidence.
- AMBA focuses on edge AI video processing, while MTSI specializes in RF and analog semiconductors for data centers and telecom, offering diversified exposure.
- Analyst sentiment remains positive for both, with buy ratings and price targets suggesting upside potential amid AI demand.
- Upcoming earnings reports—MTSI on May 7 and AMBA on May 28—could influence near-term relative performance.
Introduction
Ambarella (AMBA) and MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) are key players in the semiconductor industry, focusing on AI-enabled technologies for edge computing and data infrastructure. This comparison examines their business models, recent stock performance, and market positioning amid rising demand for AI vision systems and high-speed connectivity. Traders seeking growth in automotive, security, and data center applications, as well as investors tracking semiconductor relative performance, will find insights into momentum, risks, and sector catalysts relevant in the current environment.
AMBA Overview and Recent Performance
Ambarella (AMBA), Inc. develops low-power system-on-chip (SoC) semiconductors and software for edge AI applications, including video processing for automotive advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), security cameras, drones, and robotics. Trading around $71 per share with a market cap of $3.1 billion, the stock exhibits high volatility (beta of 2.16). In recent weeks, AMBA has surged about 29%, supported by bullish technical indicators such as Aroon uptrend, momentum above zero, and moving average crossovers signaling potential upward continuation. Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue rose 20% year-over-year to $100.9 million, beating estimates, with focus on expanding edge AI business amid positive analyst updates like Northland's bullish stance. Sentiment has shifted positively from prior weakness, though overbought RSI suggests possible pullbacks.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI), Inc. designs analog semiconductors, including radio frequency (RF), microwave, and millimeterwave products for telecom, data centers, defense, and industrial markets. The stock trades near $295, with a $22.1 billion market cap and moderate beta of 1.60. Recent market activity shows a 26% monthly gain, building on 72% YTD strength fueled by AI optical chip highlights and data center demand. Technicals confirm an upward trend with price above the 50-day moving average and Aroon uptrend, though recent MACD negativity and RSI exit from overbought signal caution. Q1 revenue hit $271.6 million, up 24.5%, with supply chain enhancements bolstering sentiment; analysts like Stifel raised targets to $300.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Ambarella (AMBA) and MACOM (MTSI) both leverage AI growth but differ in focus: AMBA's edge AI video SoCs target automotive and security (52-week range $48-$97), while MTSI's RF/analog solutions power data centers and 5G ($109-$297 range). Growth drivers include AI vision for AMBA and optical interconnects for MTSI, with recent momentum favoring MTSI's scale (forward PE 65 vs. AMBA's 95). Risk trade-offs: AMBA's higher beta implies greater volatility, while MTSI offers stability. Market sentiment tilts toward MTSI on data center exposure, though both benefit from semiconductor upcycle.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI analysis leans toward MTSI in the current environment, citing its consistent upward trend, superior YTD positioning, lower relative risk (beta 1.60), and data center catalysts amid strong analyst support. While AMBA shows promising short-term bullish patterns like Aroon and MA crossovers, MTSI's scale and momentum provide higher probability of sustained outperformance, though both warrant monitoring ahead of earnings.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMBA is a Hold and MTSI is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMBA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMTSI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMBA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTSI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMBA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTSI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMBA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTSI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AMBA (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +6.38% price change this week, while MTSI (@Semiconductors) price change was +4.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -0.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was +140.48%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +4.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +39.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was +81.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMBA is expected to report earnings on May 28, 2026.
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-0.97% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+4.47% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| AMBA | MTSI | AMBA / MTSI | |
| Capitalization | 3.55B | 28.7B | 12% |
| EBITDA | -56.94M | 276M | -21% |
| Gain YTD | 14.582 | 119.290 | 12% |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 159.83 | - |
| Revenue | 391M | 1.07B | 36% |
| Total Cash | 313M | 665M | 47% |
| Total Debt | 13.4M | 377M | 4% |
AMBA | MTSI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTSI's Valuation (86) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMBA (88). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to AMBA’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for AMBA (100). This means that MTSI’s stock grew significantly faster than AMBA’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's SMR Rating (60) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMBA (94). This means that MTSI’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMBA’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMBA (40). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to AMBA’s over the last 12 months.
AMBA's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (17). This means that AMBA’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| AMBA | MTSI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 81% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 80% | 19 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 76% |
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AMBA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMBA has been closely correlated with ADI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMBA jumps, then ADI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMBA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMBA | 100% | +0.16% | ||
| ADI - AMBA | 68% Closely correlated | -2.18% | ||
| RMBS - AMBA | 68% Closely correlated | -2.70% | ||
| NXPI - AMBA | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.91% | ||
| MTSI - AMBA | 65% Loosely correlated | -2.08% | ||
| SLAB - AMBA | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.32% | ||
More | ||||
MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | -2.08% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -4.68% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -4.82% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | -1.58% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | -2.41% | ||
| AMAT - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | -0.89% | ||
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