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AMP vs CG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ameriprise Financial (AMP) vs. The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMP is a diversified wealth and asset management firm, while CG is a global alternative asset manager focused on private equity, credit, and secondaries.
- Recent sentiment diverges sharply: AMP has faced an analyst double-downgrade tied to advisor departures, while CG has contended with margin compression despite record fee-related earnings.
- Both stocks trade below their 52-week highs, but their risk profiles stem from very different sources — talent retention for AMP versus monetization timing for CG.
- AMP's fundamentals remain strong (high return on equity, robust capital returns), whereas CG's story centers on fundraising momentum and a shift toward recurring fee revenue.
- Neither name currently displays a uniformly bullish trend, making relative positioning and momentum key inputs for any AI-driven comparison.
Introduction
Investors evaluating financial-sector exposure often weigh diversified wealth managers against alternative asset managers, two business models that generate revenue in fundamentally different ways. AMP (Ameriprise Financial) earns primarily from advisory fees, asset-based fees, and banking products serving individuals and institutions. CG (The Carlyle Group) earns from management fees, performance fees, and carried interest across private capital strategies. This stock comparison is most relevant for traders and investors who want to understand how recent market activity, sentiment shifts, and relative performance distinguish these two well-known names within the broader financials complex.
AMP Overview and Recent Performance
Ameriprise Financial (AMP) is a Minneapolis-based wealth and asset management company serving individual and institutional clients through roughly 10,000 employee and independent financial advisors, alongside its Columbia Threadneedle asset management business and Ameriprise Bank. In recent weeks, the stock has come under pressure following a Bank of America Securities double-downgrade to Underperform, with the price target cut from $570 to $445. The move followed reports that several large advisory teams overseeing a combined $12.75 billion in client assets departed the firm between May and September, with some leaving to launch registered investment advisory (RIA) firms.
This advisor retention concern has weighed on market sentiment even as underlying financials remain solid. Ameriprise reported double-digit revenue growth and a 22% rise in earnings per share in its most recent quarter, with assets under management and administration reaching a record $1.8 trillion and return on equity (ROE) near 55%. The stock has retreated roughly 15% from its 52-week closing high, reflecting a market that is now pricing structural talent-retention risk alongside the firm's historically strong profitability and capital returns.
CG Overview and Recent Performance
The Carlyle Group (CG) is a Washington, D.C.-based global investment firm that deploys private capital across three segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest. With assets under management (AUM) of roughly $475 billion to $485 billion in recent quarters, the firm has emphasized a transition toward more durable, recurring revenue through credit, secondaries, and wealth-channel fundraising. In recent weeks, sentiment in the broader alternative asset manager space has remained cautious, and analysts have trimmed price targets, with Piper Sandler lowering its target to $48 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
CG's recent results highlight both momentum and pressure. The firm has posted record fee-related earnings and record distributable earnings, driven by strength in Global Credit and AlpInvest, including a record quarter for U.S. buyout realizations. At the same time, GAAP net income has swung negative in one recent quarter on investment losses, and year-over-year revenue and earnings per share have declined as performance fees proved lumpy. The stock trades in the mid-to-high $40s, below prior-year levels, as investors weigh durable fee growth against margin compression and uncertain monetization timing.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies occupy adjacent but distinct corners of financial services. AMP is a balance-sheet-light, fee-driven wealth manager whose earnings are relatively steady and highly correlated with advisory productivity, market levels, and cash-sweep spreads. Its principal near-term risk is talent retention: rising competition from independent RIAs and rival broker-dealers could pressure headcount and wealth margins, and regulatory scrutiny of low cash-sweep rates may compress deposit spreads. In contrast, CG is a capital-markets-sensitive alternative manager whose earnings depend heavily on fundraising, realizations, and carried interest. Its risk centers on the lumpiness of performance fees and the timing of asset monetization, even as management fees and credit strategies add stability.
From a market positioning standpoint, AMP has historically offered steadier earnings and a strong dividend and buyback program, whereas CG offers higher potential upside tied to private-markets growth but with greater earnings variability. Relative performance recently reflects these tensions: AMP has de-rated on a specific, concentrated concern, while CG remains range-bound amid sector-wide apathy. Investors focused on stability may find AMP's fundamentals more legible, while those seeking exposure to the private-capital "super cycle" narrative may weigh CG's fundraising momentum more heavily.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward AMP in the current environment. Despite the advisor-retention overhang, AMP's trend remains underpinned by strong and comparatively stable earnings, high return on equity, and consistent capital returns, which tend to support more reliable technical signals. CG exhibits momentum in fee-related earnings and fundraising, but its headline earnings volatility and range-bound price action make its trend less consistent for algorithmic ranking purposes. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and could shift as either stock's catalyst profile and trend strength evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMP is a Buy and CG is a Hold.
AMP in +4.58% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on November 04, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where AMP advanced for three days, in 210 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AMP as a result. In 54 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMP just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AMP moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 46 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 35%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 63 cases where AMP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
AMP moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
AMP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AMP entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.959) is normal, around the industry mean (2.444). P/E Ratio (11.949) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.345). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.395) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.269) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.644) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
Momentum Indicator for CG turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CG saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 76 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 57 of the 76 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where CG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +5.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CG advanced for three days, in 231 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CG moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 50 cases where CG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
CG moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
CG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CG entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.699) is normal, around the industry mean (2.444). P/E Ratio (39.307) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.345). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.269) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.356) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
AMP | CG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMP's Valuation (88) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CG (88) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that AMP’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
AMP's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is significantly better than the same rating for CG (100) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that AMP’s stock grew significantly faster than CG’s over the last 12 months.
AMP's SMR Rating (41) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CG (59) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that AMP’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
AMP's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as CG (61) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that AMP’s stock grew similarly to CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMP (51) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that CG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMP’s over the last 12 months.
| AMP | CG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 35% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 10 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while CG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AMP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMP’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CG’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CG’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMP (@Investment Managers) experienced а +2.17% price change this week, while CG (@Investment Managers) price change was -1.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -1.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMP is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
CG is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-1.02% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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AMP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMP has been closely correlated with RJF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMP jumps, then RJF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMP | 100% | -1.54% | ||
| RJF - AMP | 81% Closely correlated | -1.22% | ||
| PFG - AMP | 66% Loosely correlated | -1.69% | ||
| SEIC - AMP | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| CG - AMP | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.65% | ||
| NTRS - AMP | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.80% | ||
More | ||||
CG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CG has been closely correlated with TPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CG jumps, then TPG could also see price increases.