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ARCC vs OCSL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) vs. Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARCC, the largest business development company (BDC) by market capitalization at $13.4 billion, shows stronger year-to-date (YTD) returns of 5.19% compared to OCSL's flat 0.24%.
- Both stocks offer high dividend yields, with OCSL at 12.99% versus ARCC's 10.28%, but OCSL has a concerning payout ratio exceeding 469%.
- ARCC trades at a lower trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.04 and higher return on equity (ROE) of 9.39%, indicating better profitability than OCSL's 34.19 P/E and 2.24% ROE.
- Recent market activity has seen both stocks face pressure from private credit risks, with ARCC showing more resilience ahead of its Q1 2026 earnings.
- OCSL trades at a deeper discount to net asset value (NAV), appealing for value but highlighting higher risk amid tighter dividend coverage.
Introduction
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) and Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) are both prominent business development companies (BDCs) specializing in debt and equity financing for middle-market firms. This stock comparison evaluates their business models, recent performance, and market positioning amid evolving interest rates and private credit dynamics. Income-focused investors and traders seeking high-yield opportunities in the BDC sector will find value in understanding their relative strengths, dividend sustainability, and momentum in the current environment.
ARCC Overview and Recent Performance
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is the world's largest publicly traded BDC, with a focus on direct lending to U.S. middle-market companies, generating stable net investment income (NII) through senior secured loans. In recent market activity, its shares have traded around $18.67, within a 52-week range of $17.40 to $23.42, reflecting resilience despite broader private credit concerns. YTD returns stand at 5.19%, outperforming peers, supported by a 10.28% dividend yield and quarterly payouts of $0.48 per share declared in early 2026. Sentiment has been influenced by solid Q4 2025 results, including $793 million in revenue, though upcoming Q1 2026 earnings on April 28 project a modest EPS dip amid competitive lending pressures and lingering market volatility. Lower beta of 0.63 underscores its defensive positioning.
OCSL Overview and Recent Performance
Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) operates as a BDC investing primarily in senior secured loans to middle-market companies with enterprise values between $20 million and $150 million. Shares recently hovered near $12.31, in a 52-week range of $10.63 to $14.90, with YTD returns nearly flat at 0.24%. It offers a higher dividend yield of 12.99%, with $0.40 quarterly payouts, but recent quarters showed revenue declines to $75.1 million and an elevated payout ratio, raising sustainability questions. Performance in recent weeks has lagged, pressured by analyst downgrades and private credit headwinds, with Q2 2026 earnings slated for May 5. A beta of 0.56 reflects low volatility, yet higher debt-to-equity at 112.40% amplifies credit risk exposure.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ARCC and OCSL follow similar BDC models, distributing at least 90% of taxable income as dividends while targeting middle-market lending. However, ARCC's scale provides growth advantages through diversified portfolios and higher ROE, contrasting OCSL's smaller asset base and lower profitability. Recent momentum favors ARCC with positive YTD gains versus OCSL's stagnation. Risk factors include high debt-to-equity ratios near 112% for both, credit non-performing loans (NCOs), and interest rate sensitivity, but OCSL faces greater dividend coverage strain. Sector exposure is comparable in private credit, yet ARCC enjoys stronger market sentiment from its market-leading status.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward ARCC based on its superior trend consistency, larger scale, attractive valuation (lower P/E and price-to-book), and resilient YTD performance amid private credit challenges. While OCSL offers higher yield potential, its weaker ROE and dividend metrics suggest elevated risks. This positioning indicates ARCC as the probabilistically stronger choice for stability-focused traders in prevailing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARCC is a StrongBuy and OCSL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARCC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileOCSL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ARCC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- OCSL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARCC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OCSL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARCC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- OCSL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ARCC (@Investment Managers) experienced а -4.19% price change this week, while OCSL (@Investment Managers) price change was -2.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -2.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.88%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARCC is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
OCSL is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-2.14% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
| ARCC | OCSL | ARCC / OCSL | |
| Capitalization | 12.8B | 1.01B | 1,272% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -7.092 | -4.328 | 164% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.94 | 19.36 | 57% |
| Revenue | 1.36B | 55.4M | 2,457% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 15.8B | 1.48B | 1,066% |
ARCC | OCSL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 6 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 93 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 77 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 49 | 43 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ARCC's Valuation (3) in the null industry is in the same range as OCSL (6). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OCSL’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OCSL (93). This means that ARCC’s stock grew somewhat faster than OCSL’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's SMR Rating (21) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OCSL (77). This means that ARCC’s stock grew somewhat faster than OCSL’s over the last 12 months.
OCSL's Price Growth Rating (54) in the null industry is in the same range as ARCC (58). This means that OCSL’s stock grew similarly to ARCC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OCSL (99). This means that ARCC’s stock grew somewhat faster than OCSL’s over the last 12 months.
| ARCC | OCSL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 40% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 30% | 1 day ago 40% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 30% | 1 day ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 37% | 1 day ago 42% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 39% | 12 days ago 35% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 16 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 36% | 1 day ago 43% |
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ARCC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARCC has been closely correlated with OBDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARCC jumps, then OBDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARCC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC | 100% | -1.05% | ||
| OBDC - ARCC | 80% Closely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| GBDC - ARCC | 78% Closely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| BXSL - ARCC | 75% Closely correlated | -1.65% | ||
| CSWC - ARCC | 73% Closely correlated | +0.96% | ||
| TSLX - ARCC | 71% Closely correlated | -2.17% | ||
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OCSL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OCSL has been closely correlated with GBDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OCSL jumps, then GBDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To OCSL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCSL | 100% | -1.47% | ||
| GBDC - OCSL | 70% Closely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| PFLT - OCSL | 69% Closely correlated | -3.07% | ||
| BCSF - OCSL | 68% Closely correlated | -1.54% | ||
| ARCC - OCSL | 68% Closely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| NMFC - OCSL | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.40% | ||
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