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AXTA vs SHW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) is a mid-cap coatings pure-play navigating a proposed merger with AkzoNobel, while Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is a larger, diversified paint and coatings franchise with a broad retail and professional store network.
- Sherwin-Williams carries a materially higher valuation multiple (P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, near 31x) and a long dividend-growth record, while Axalta trades at a lower multiple but faces merger-related execution uncertainty.
- Both companies have reported solid quarterly results in recent periods, but Axalta's sentiment is tied to its pending AkzoNobel transaction, whereas Sherwin-Williams' narrative centers on share gains, pricing power, and a soft U.S. housing market.
- Sherwin-Williams offers greater scale and diversification, while Axalta presents a more concentrated, event-driven risk-reward profile around its merger catalyst.
- Both stocks have shown choppy price behavior in recent weeks, reflecting broader sector volatility and divergent catalysts.
- You can dig deeper into each name's latest developments: AXTA Major News and AXTA Today's Price Move, as well as SHW Major News and SHW Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Axalta Coating Systems and Sherwin-Williams operate in the same industrial coatings and paint industry but present investors with very different profiles. Axalta is a focused global coatings manufacturer split between Performance Coatings and Mobility Coatings, while Sherwin-Williams runs a diversified business spanning its company-owned paint stores, consumer brands, and performance coatings. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors weighing a lower-valuation, merger-driven story against a higher-quality, scale-driven compounder. By examining recent relative performance, market positioning, and catalysts, traders can better understand how these two coatings names compare in the current environment.
AXTA Overview and Recent Performance
AXTA, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., supplies liquid and powder coatings for automotive refinish, light and commercial vehicles, and industrial applications. The dominant theme in its recent market activity has been its proposed "merger of equals" with AkzoNobel, a transaction valued near $25 billion. Regulatory progress has been a key sentiment driver, with reports in recent weeks indicating the deal is set to receive EU antitrust approval pending the divestiture of AkzoNobel's vehicle refinish business.
Fundamentally, Axalta has delivered record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and its lowest-ever net leverage ratio in recent quarters, supported by pricing and cost discipline. However, analyst commentary has turned more cautious, with several firms trimming price targets or shifting to neutral ratings on merger-related uncertainty, softer auto refinish volumes, and a longer timeline to realize cost synergies. The stock has traded in a choppy range in recent weeks, reflecting this balance between the merger catalyst and execution questions.
SHW Overview and Recent Performance
SHW, The Sherwin-Williams Company, is one of the world's largest paint and coatings businesses, organized into Paint Stores Group, Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group. In recent quarters the company has posted high-single-digit sales growth and raised its full-year outlook, citing new account wins, share gains, and the contribution from its Suvinil acquisition in Brazil.
Sherwin-Williams' recent stock behavior has been more subdued than its operating results might suggest. A soft U.S. housing market, muted do-it-yourself (DIY) demand, and an elevated valuation multiple have weighed on sentiment, with the shares pulling back meaningfully over a one-month stretch in early autumn before stabilizing. Analysts remain broadly constructive, with a consensus "Buy" rating, but several have reset price targets as they weigh raw-material inflation and a premium P/E ratio against the company's pricing power, 48-year dividend-growth streak, and expanding store network. Recent weeks have also featured the opening of the company's largest North American plant in Statesville, North Carolina, underscoring its capacity investments.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a select group of automated trading strategies from a much larger universe of AI-driven bots that collectively trade thousands of tickers. Rather than listing every available bot, this section surfaces only those whose recent performance and settings appear best aligned with current market conditions. The bots span a wide range of trading styles, timeframes, strategies, and performance statistics, and each is configured to trade its own set of tickers. For traders comparing names like Axalta and Sherwin-Williams, these tools offer a data-driven lens on momentum and positioning. To explore the strategies currently standing out, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Head-to-Head Comparison
At the business-model level, the contrast is stark. Sherwin-Williams is a diversified, vertically integrated operator with roughly 5,000 company-owned stores, a consumer brands portfolio, and a performance coatings division, giving it exposure to professional contractors, retail consumers, and industrial end markets. Axalta is more concentrated, with two segments tied closely to automotive refinish, light and commercial vehicle production, and industrial coatings. This concentration makes Axalta more sensitive to auto-production cycles and refinish volumes.
On growth drivers, Sherwin-Williams leans on share gains, targeted pricing, store expansion, and the Suvinil acquisition, while Axalta's outlook is heavily influenced by the AkzoNobel merger and the eventual realization of cost synergies. Recent momentum has been mixed for both, but the drivers differ: Sherwin-Williams' softness reflects valuation and housing headwinds, while Axalta's reflects event-driven merger uncertainty.
Risk factors also diverge. Sherwin-Williams faces a premium multiple, raw-material inflation, and a sluggish housing market, while Axalta carries integration and regulatory risk around its pending transaction. Sector exposure overlaps but is not identical, with Sherwin-Williams more balanced across end markets and Axalta more levered to automotive and industrial production. In market positioning terms, Sherwin-Williams commands a much larger market capitalization (roughly $80 billion versus Axalta's single-digit billions), reinforcing its defensive, compounding profile versus Axalta's catalyst-dependent, higher-beta profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely assign a more favorable short-to-medium-term posture to Sherwin-Williams, given its steadier trend profile, diversified revenue base, and lower sensitivity to a single binary event. Axalta's merger catalyst offers potentially larger upside but introduces greater uncertainty around execution and regulatory completion. In probabilistic terms, the AI framework would likely view Sherwin-Williams as the more stable positioning choice, while recognizing Axalta as a higher-reward, higher-uncertainty alternative for investors comfortable with event-driven risk. This assessment reflects relative trend and stability signals rather than a directional price prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AXTA is a Buy and SHW is a Hold.
AXTA in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AXTA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AXTA as a result. In 48 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
AXTA moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AXTA advanced for three days, in 210 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 112 of 202 cases where AXTA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AXTA moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 56%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
AXTA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AXTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.093) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (22.362) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.389) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AXTA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
SHW sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SHW moved below the 200-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SHW moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 60%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 59 cases where SHW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
SHW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SHW as a result. In 41 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHW just turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SHW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
SHW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SHW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +6.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHW advanced for three days, in 166 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 144 of 243 cases where SHW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SHW's P/B Ratio (21.670) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.284). P/E Ratio (31.453) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.143) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.266) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
AXTA | SHW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 64 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 58 | 18 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AXTA's Valuation (66) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SHW (100). This means that AXTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than SHW’s over the last 12 months.
SHW's Profit vs Risk Rating (64) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as AXTA (71). This means that SHW’s stock grew similarly to AXTA’s over the last 12 months.
SHW's SMR Rating (18) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AXTA (58). This means that SHW’s stock grew somewhat faster than AXTA’s over the last 12 months.
AXTA's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as SHW (44). This means that AXTA’s stock grew similarly to SHW’s over the last 12 months.
AXTA's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SHW (53). This means that AXTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than SHW’s over the last 12 months.
| AXTA | SHW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 10 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 6 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AXTA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SHW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AXTA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SHW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AXTA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SHW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AXTA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SHW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AXTA (@Chemicals: Specialty) experienced а +6.19% price change this week, while SHW (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was +4.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was -3.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
AXTA is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
SHW is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Specialty (-3.13% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
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AXTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AXTA has been closely correlated with PPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AXTA jumps, then PPG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AXTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 100% | -0.40% | ||
| PPG - AXTA | 74% Closely correlated | -0.12% | ||
| SHW - AXTA | 69% Closely correlated | -0.72% | ||
| RPM - AXTA | 68% Closely correlated | -0.52% | ||
| OLN - AXTA | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.34% | ||
| FUL - AXTA | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.09% | ||
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