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AXTA vs SHW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AXTA and SHW operate in the same coatings and paints sector, with SHW representing a significantly larger scale through broader product lines and global distribution.
- Recent quarterly results showed AXTA exceeding expectations on revenue and adjusted earnings in Q1 2026, while SHW delivered solid sales growth and reaffirmed full-year guidance.
- SHW maintains higher profitability metrics, including superior net margins and return on equity, compared to AXTA's more modest figures.
- Stock price behavior in recent weeks reflects sector pressures, with both names showing mixed momentum amid broader market volatility and cost concerns.
- Valuation contrasts highlight AXTA trading at a relatively lower multiple, while SHW commands a premium aligned with its market position and earnings stability.
- Upcoming catalysts include SHW's Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for late July, providing fresh data points for relative performance assessment.
Introduction
This comparison examines AXTA and SHW, two established players in the industrial coatings and paints industry. Both companies serve overlapping end markets including automotive, construction, and industrial applications, making them relevant benchmarks for investors tracking sector dynamics. The analysis focuses on recent financial results, stock behavior, and positioning to assist professional traders and longer-term investors evaluating relative opportunities within materials. Readers interested in comparative momentum, margin profiles, and market sentiment shifts will find this overview pertinent for portfolio construction or tactical allocation decisions.
AXTA Overview and Recent Performance
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. specializes in high-performance coatings for transportation, industrial, and refinish applications. In recent market activity, the company reported first-quarter 2026 results that surpassed guidance, with net sales reaching $1.25 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $259 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.56. These outcomes supported a constructive tone around operational execution. Stock levels in recent weeks have hovered near $33 to $34.25, reflecting a recovery from earlier pressures following softer prior-period guidance. Sentiment has been influenced by the earnings beat and reaffirmed synergy targets from acquisitions, though broader sector cost and demand variables continue to shape trading ranges.
SHW Overview and Recent Performance
The Sherwin-Williams Company is a leading global provider of paints, coatings, and related products across architectural, industrial, and performance coatings segments. Recent quarterly reporting for the first quarter of 2026 showed consolidated net sales of $5.67 billion, up 6.8% year-over-year, alongside diluted EPS growth of 7.5% to $2.15. The firm reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance range of $11.50 to $11.90. In recent weeks, shares have traded in the $330 to $346 area amid mixed broader market conditions and anticipation of second-quarter results due in late July. Performance has been shaped by volume resilience, pricing actions, and acquisition contributions, with investor focus remaining on margin sustainability and end-market trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AXTA functions as a more specialized coatings provider with focused exposure to transportation and refinish markets, while SHW operates at greater scale with diversified architectural and industrial segments that support steadier revenue streams. Recent momentum favors AXTA following its earnings beat, whereas SHW demonstrates stronger absolute profitability and return metrics alongside reaffirmed guidance. Risk factors for AXTA include narrower end-market concentration and historical sensitivity to volume fluctuations; SHW contends with larger absolute exposure to raw material costs and broader economic cycles. Sector exposure remains aligned, yet SHW's size provides greater pricing power and distribution advantages. Market sentiment reflects both names as defensive materials plays, with valuation differentials positioning AXTA as potentially more accessible on multiples and SHW as a higher-quality compounder.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including earnings consistency, margin stability, and scale advantages, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to SHW over AXTA for relative positioning in the near term. The larger company’s reaffirmed guidance and superior return metrics provide a more durable foundation amid sector headwinds, though AXTA’s recent beat introduces potential for catch-up momentum depending on upcoming data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AXTA is a StrongBuy and SHW is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AXTA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSHW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AXTA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SHW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AXTA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SHW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AXTA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SHW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AXTA (@Chemicals: Specialty) experienced а -7.41% price change this week, while SHW (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was -5.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was -3.85%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
AXTA is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
SHW is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Specialty (-3.85% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
| AXTA | SHW | AXTA / SHW | |
| Capitalization | 6.86B | 81.1B | 8% |
| EBITDA | 993M | 4.56B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | -0.743 | 2.013 | -37% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.75 | 31.60 | 59% |
| Revenue | 5.11B | 23.9B | 21% |
| Total Cash | 608M | 217M | 280% |
| Total Debt | 3.15B | 13.8B | 23% |
AXTA | SHW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 95 | 71 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 53 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AXTA's Valuation (78) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as SHW (88). This means that AXTA’s stock grew similarly to SHW’s over the last 12 months.
SHW's Profit vs Risk Rating (71) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as AXTA (95). This means that SHW’s stock grew similarly to AXTA’s over the last 12 months.
SHW's SMR Rating (19) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AXTA (53). This means that SHW’s stock grew somewhat faster than AXTA’s over the last 12 months.
AXTA's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as SHW (51). This means that AXTA’s stock grew similarly to SHW’s over the last 12 months.
AXTA's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as SHW (54). This means that AXTA’s stock grew similarly to SHW’s over the last 12 months.
| AXTA | SHW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 6 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 57% |
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AXTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AXTA has been closely correlated with PPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AXTA jumps, then PPG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AXTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 100% | -1.35% | ||
| PPG - AXTA | 74% Closely correlated | -2.50% | ||
| RPM - AXTA | 66% Closely correlated | -2.46% | ||
| DD - AXTA | 66% Closely correlated | -1.50% | ||
| FUL - AXTA | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| SHW - AXTA | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.50% | ||
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