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AXTA vs SHW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Business focus differs sharply: AXTA (Axalta Coating Systems) centers on performance and mobility coatings, while SHW (Sherwin-Williams) spans architectural paint and diversified industrial coatings.
- Scale gap is significant: SHW's market capitalization is roughly ten times larger than AXTA's, reflecting a broader, more mature franchise.
- AXTA's defining catalyst is its pending "merger of equals" with AkzoNobel, a transaction that has shaped sentiment and valuation for months.
- SHW has leaned on pricing power and share gains to drive growth despite soft end-market demand, and recently raised its full-year profit outlook.
- Recent momentum diverges: SHW posted stronger top-line growth and an upward guidance revision, while AXTA's shares have lagged the broader market in recent months.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two prominent names in the global coatings and paint industry: Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) and The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW). Although both operate in overlapping markets, their relative performance, market positioning, and strategic catalysts have diverged meaningfully in recent weeks. Investors evaluating sector exposure, growth quality, and risk profiles may find this comparison useful, as it contrasts a mid-cap specialist navigating a transformational merger with a diversified industry leader focused on pricing and market-share execution.
AXTA Overview and Recent Performance
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) is a global supplier of high-performance coatings across two primary segments: Performance Coatings (led by automotive refinish and industrial) and Mobility Coatings (light and commercial vehicle OEM coatings). The company's most consequential recent development is its announced "merger of equals" with Dutch rival AkzoNobel, a deal that would create a combined paintmaker with an estimated enterprise value near $25 billion, with AkzoNobel shareholders expected to hold roughly 55% and AXTA shareholders about 45%.
Financially, AXTA has shown resilience: in its most recent quarter it reported record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) alongside modest net sales growth and a net leverage ratio that reached its lowest level in company history. However, sentiment has been mixed. Analysts have trimmed price targets and several have shifted to neutral ratings, citing merger-related execution risk, softer automotive refinish volumes, and a longer timeline to realize cost synergies. Relative performance has underwhelmed, with AXTA shares down sharply year-to-date against a rising S&P 500.
SHW Overview and Recent Performance
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is one of the world's largest paint and coatings manufacturers, operating through three segments: Paint Stores Group, Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group. Its business skews toward architectural and professional paints, with growing exposure to protective and marine coatings tied to data centers, semiconductors, and manufacturing onshoring.
Recent market activity has favored SHW. The company posted high-single-digit sales growth in its latest quarter, driven by price increases, new account wins, and contributions from its Suvinil acquisition, even as management acknowledged broad demand conditions remained soft. SHW subsequently raised its full-year adjusted profit guidance and announced an 8% price increase at its Paint Stores Group effective in the fall, reflecting confidence in its pricing power amid rising raw-material costs. Notably, SHW also walked away from a joint bid to acquire AkzoNobel, signaling a disciplined capital-allocation stance. Shares have outperformed AXTA in recent months, though they remain modestly lower on a trailing-year basis.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is business model and scale. SHW's diversified, consumer-and-pro-oriented franchise generates roughly five times AXTA's revenue and commands a far larger market capitalization, giving it deeper cash-flow durability and a long history of buybacks and dividends. AXTA, by contrast, is more concentrated in automotive and industrial coatings, making it more cyclically sensitive to vehicle production and collision-repair demand.
Growth drivers also differ. SHW's recent momentum rests on organic share gains, targeted pricing, and the Suvinil acquisition, executed against a backdrop management itself describes as lacking a broad demand recovery. AXTA's growth story is more event-driven: the AkzoNobel merger promises scale and roughly $600 million in projected synergies but introduces execution and integration risk during the interim period.
Risk profiles diverge accordingly. AXTA carries merger-related uncertainty, softer refinish volumes, and leverage-reduction priorities, while SHW faces raw-material inflation, muted DIY demand, and the capital-allocation considerations that led it to abandon the AkzoNobel pursuit. On market sentiment, SHW's guidance raise and pricing announcement have supported a more constructive near-term view, whereas AXTA's analyst community has grown more cautious.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward SHW in the current environment. The company's combination of steady top-line growth, demonstrated pricing power, an upward guidance revision, and a cleaner strategic narrative offers more consistent trend signals than AXTA's event-dependent, merger-heavy setup. That said, AXTA presents a distinct catalyst profile: if the AkzoNobel merger proceeds as planned and synergies materialize, its relative positioning could shift materially. The AI's preference should therefore be understood as probabilistic and tied to near-term trend consistency rather than a permanent ranking, with AXTA remaining a higher-catalyst, higher-uncertainty alternative.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AXTA is a StrongBuy and SHW is a Buy.
AXTA in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
AXTA moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 32 of 45 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AXTA's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AXTA as a result. In 52 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AXTA just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where AXTA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +3.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AXTA advanced for three days, in 211 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AXTA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
AXTA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AXTA entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AXTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.968) is normal, around the industry mean (2.359). P/E Ratio (21.460) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.389) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AXTA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
SHW's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHW turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where SHW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SHW as a result. In 42 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
SHW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.71% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHW advanced for three days, in 168 of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
SHW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SHW entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SHW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SHW's P/B Ratio (21.240) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.360). P/E Ratio (30.829) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.218). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.143) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.266) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
AXTA | SHW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 58 | 18 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 49 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AXTA's Valuation (66) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SHW (100). This means that AXTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than SHW’s over the last 12 months.
SHW's Profit vs Risk Rating (73) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as AXTA (77). This means that SHW’s stock grew similarly to AXTA’s over the last 12 months.
SHW's SMR Rating (18) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AXTA (58). This means that SHW’s stock grew somewhat faster than AXTA’s over the last 12 months.
AXTA's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as SHW (46). This means that AXTA’s stock grew similarly to SHW’s over the last 12 months.
AXTA's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SHW (49). This means that AXTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than SHW’s over the last 12 months.
| AXTA | SHW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 2 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 2 days ago 46% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AXTA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SHW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AXTA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SHW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AXTA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SHW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AXTA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SHW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AXTA (@Chemicals: Specialty) experienced а +5.42% price change this week, while SHW (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was +3.92% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was +0.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
AXTA is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
SHW is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Specialty (+0.09% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
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AXTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AXTA has been closely correlated with PPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AXTA jumps, then PPG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AXTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 100% | +0.20% | ||
| PPG - AXTA | 72% Closely correlated | +2.65% | ||
| SHW - AXTA | 68% Closely correlated | +2.48% | ||
| RPM - AXTA | 67% Closely correlated | +1.84% | ||
| OLN - AXTA | 65% Loosely correlated | +4.09% | ||
| FUL - AXTA | 60% Loosely correlated | +0.45% | ||
More | ||||
SHW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SHW has been closely correlated with RPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SHW jumps, then RPM could also see price increases.
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