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AXTA vs SHW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) vs. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SHW commands a market capitalization of approximately $83.7 billion, dwarfing AXTA's $6.4 billion, underscoring its scale advantage.
- AXTA trades at a lower trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.1 compared to SHW's 32.9, potentially offering better value in the coatings sector.
- Recent market activity shows AXTA up over 11% in the past month amid innovation recognitions, while SHW exhibits mixed short-term momentum.
- Both stocks faced analyst downgrades in recent weeks due to rising raw material costs from geopolitical tensions, impacting sector sentiment.
- SHW has delivered positive year-to-date returns of about 4.5%, outperforming AXTA's roughly 8% decline.
- Tickeron AI tools highlight SHW's relative stability and catalysts for potential outperformance.
Introduction
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) are key players in the specialty chemicals sector, focusing on high-performance coatings for industrial, automotive, and architectural applications. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market positioning amid fluctuating commodity prices and economic shifts. Investors seeking exposure to resilient demand in paints and coatings, or traders monitoring relative momentum in cyclical sectors, will find insights into growth drivers, valuation contrasts, and sentiment indicators. With both facing similar headwinds like raw material inflation, understanding their trade-offs aids informed decision-making in today's volatile market environment.
AXTA Overview and Recent Performance
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) is a global leader in manufacturing and distributing high-performance liquid and powder coatings, operating through Performance Coatings and Mobility Coatings segments. Its products serve automotive refinish, industrial, and commercial vehicle markets, including electrocoat and basecoat systems for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Trading near $29.70 recently, the stock's 52-week range spans $24.94 to $35.72, reflecting volatility in cyclical demand. Year-to-date, shares have declined around 8%, though a 11% monthly gain signals short-term rebound amid broader market activity. Sentiment has been buoyed by recent innovations, including three 2026 Edison Awards for electric vehicle safety coatings and AI-powered color technology, plus the launch of the Zencore cabinet coating system. However, upcoming first-quarter earnings are projected to show declines, and a Wells Fargo downgrade to Equal Weight cited cost pressures, tempering optimism.
SHW Overview and Recent Performance
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) develops, manufactures, and sells paints, coatings, and related products across Paint Stores, Consumer Brands, and Performance Coatings segments, targeting professional, industrial, and retail customers globally. Shares hover around $338, within a 52-week range of $302 to $380. Year-to-date performance stands positive at about 4.5%, supported by a strong fourth-quarter revenue beat, though recent weeks show mixed trading with some upticks amid housing market softness. Key influences include analyst adjustments downward on commodity cost rises and weakening demand, with Wells Fargo moving to Equal Weight. First-quarter earnings, due imminently, face tempered expectations, yet the company's scale and dividend declaration ($0.80 per share) sustain investor interest in its market leadership.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both AXTA and SHW operate in the coatings industry but differ in focus: AXTA emphasizes industrial and mobility applications like automotive OEM and refinish, while SHW balances retail paint stores with performance coatings for broader architectural and industrial uses. Growth drivers contrast with AXTA's EV and AI innovations versus SHW's established retail network amid housing cycles. Recent momentum favors AXTA's monthly gains, but SHW leads year-to-date. Risk factors overlap in commodity exposure and geopolitical cost hikes, though SHW's higher debt-to-equity (306%) amplifies leverage versus AXTA's 138%. Market sentiment tilts toward SHW's scale and ROE (59%) over AXTA's value-oriented multiples.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI analysis currently favors SHW over AXTA, citing its superior trend consistency, larger scale for weathering sector headwinds, positive year-to-date positioning, and diversified revenue streams. While AXTA offers compelling valuation and innovation catalysts, SHW appears probabilistically better positioned for relative outperformance in the near term based on observable momentum and stability metrics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AXTA is a StrongBuy and SHW is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AXTA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSHW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AXTA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SHW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AXTA’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SHW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AXTA’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SHW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AXTA (@Chemicals: Specialty) experienced а +1.66% price change this week, while SHW (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was -1.04% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was -1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
AXTA is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
SHW is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Specialty (-1.31% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
| AXTA | SHW | AXTA / SHW | |
| Capitalization | 7.35B | 78.2B | 9% |
| EBITDA | 993M | 4.56B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | 6.252 | -1.730 | -361% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.08 | 30.44 | 66% |
| Revenue | 5.11B | 23.9B | 21% |
| Total Cash | 608M | 217M | 280% |
| Total Debt | 3.15B | 13.8B | 23% |
AXTA | SHW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 53 | 18 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AXTA's Valuation (76) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as SHW (88). This means that AXTA’s stock grew similarly to SHW’s over the last 12 months.
SHW's Profit vs Risk Rating (79) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as AXTA (87). This means that SHW’s stock grew similarly to AXTA’s over the last 12 months.
SHW's SMR Rating (18) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AXTA (53). This means that SHW’s stock grew somewhat faster than AXTA’s over the last 12 months.
AXTA's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as SHW (51). This means that AXTA’s stock grew similarly to SHW’s over the last 12 months.
AXTA's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SHW (58). This means that AXTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than SHW’s over the last 12 months.
| AXTA | SHW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 64% | 8 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 62% | 22 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 48% |
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AXTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AXTA has been closely correlated with PPG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AXTA jumps, then PPG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AXTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 100% | -1.29% | ||
| PPG - AXTA | 73% Closely correlated | +0.57% | ||
| DD - AXTA | 66% Closely correlated | +1.01% | ||
| RPM - AXTA | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.41% | ||
| OLN - AXTA | 65% Loosely correlated | -2.14% | ||
| SHW - AXTA | 64% Loosely correlated | -1.21% | ||
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SHW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SHW has been closely correlated with RPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SHW jumps, then RPM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SHW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHW | 100% | -1.21% | ||
| RPM - SHW | 75% Closely correlated | -0.41% | ||
| PPG - SHW | 73% Closely correlated | +0.57% | ||
| AXTA - SHW | 66% Closely correlated | -1.29% | ||
| AVNT - SHW | 64% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| FUL - SHW | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.85% | ||
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