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BY vs SRCE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Byline Bancorp (BY) vs. 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Comparison
1 ) Key Takeaways
- Both BY and SRCE are Midwestern regional bank holding companies, but they operate at different scales: Byline Bancorp approaches the $10 billion asset threshold, while 1st Source is a smaller community-focused franchise.
- BY posted record quarterly net income and raised its dividend 16.7% in recent months, supported by disciplined expense control and steady credit quality.
- SRCE delivered an earnings beat and completed a leadership transition, with strong full-year profit growth of nearly 20%.
- Analyst sentiment diverges: BY carries a consensus "Buy" rating, while SRCE holds a consensus "Hold," despite a higher average price target on the latter.
- Both names have generated strong year-to-date gains, making valuation and momentum—not just fundamentals—central to the comparison.
2 ) Introduction
Regional banks often trade as a group, but their individual franchises, balance sheets, and growth engines can diverge meaningfully. This stock comparison examines BY (Byline Bancorp) and SRCE (1st Source Corporation), two established Midwestern lenders with contrasting scale, geographic footprints, and capital-return profiles. Investors weighing relative performance and market positioning within the financials sector may find this side-by-side useful—whether they are screening for dividend growth, credit quality, or momentum. The article reviews recent business developments, stock behavior, and the factors currently shaping sentiment around each name.
2 ) Introduction
Regional banks often trade as a group, yet their individual franchises, balance sheets, and growth engines can diverge considerably. This stock comparison examines BY (Byline Bancorp) and SRCE (1st Source Corporation), two established Midwestern lenders with contrasting scale, geographic footprints, and capital-return profiles. Investors weighing relative performance and market positioning within the financials sector may find this side-by-side useful—whether screening for dividend growth, credit quality, or momentum. The article reviews recent business developments, stock behavior, and the factors currently shaping sentiment around each name.
3 ) BY Overview and Recent Performance
Byline Bancorp is a Chicago-based bank holding company that operates through Byline Bank, a full-service commercial bank serving small and medium-sized businesses, commercial real estate clients, financial sponsors, and consumers across the Chicago area and broader Midwest. The company also provides equipment leasing and trust and wealth management services, and it has long been a leading SBA 7(a) lender in Illinois.
In recent quarters, BY has demonstrated improving profitability. The company reported record net income and a double-digit year-over-year gain in earnings per share, supported by a low efficiency ratio, stable net interest margin, and disciplined non-interest expense management. Management also announced a 16.7% increase in the quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in earnings power. Credit metrics have remained steady, with the allowance for credit losses and nonperforming loans near historical norms, though the bank faces competition for deposits and elevated commercial loan payoffs. As Byline approaches the $10 billion asset mark, investors are watching how potential regulatory and compliance costs could affect its efficiency trajectory.
4 ) SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
1st Source Corporation is a South Bend, Indiana-based bank holding company that provides commercial and consumer banking, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance through 1st Source Bank. Its franchise is concentrated in Indiana and southwest Michigan, with lending across commercial, small business, agricultural, and real estate segments, including a renewable energy line of business.
In recent periods, SRCE has reported an earnings beat and strong full-year profit growth of nearly 20%, with return on average assets and return on equity both improving. The company also completed a CEO succession in late 2025, a transition management described as orderly. Deposits and loans have continued to grow, and the bank has maintained a steady dividend, supported by ongoing share repurchases. Credit quality has held up, though the bank modestly increased loan loss reserves to reflect broader economic uncertainty. The stock has risen sharply year to date, which has prompted some analysts to flag valuation after the strong run.
5 ) Trending AI Robots
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6 ) Head-to-Head Comparison
While both are regional banks, BY and SRCE present different risk-reward profiles. Byline is larger, nearing $10 billion in assets, with a commercial lending emphasis and a strong SBA lending franchise; 1st Source is smaller and more diversified across commercial, agricultural, and wealth/insurance services. Growth drivers differ as well: BY leans on organic commercial loan growth and acquisition integration, while SRCE benefits from niche lines such as renewable energy lending and fee-based wealth and insurance income.
On momentum, both stocks have posted double-digit year-to-date gains, but BY has attracted a stronger analyst consensus ("Buy") with a modestly higher implied upside relative to its price, whereas SRCE carries a consensus "Hold" even as one analyst's target remains notably higher. Risk factors also differ: Byline faces the operational and compliance costs of crossing the $10 billion regulatory threshold, while 1st Source carries geographic concentration in Indiana and Michigan and elevated valuation after a strong rally. Sector exposure is broadly similar—both are sensitive to interest rates, deposit competition, and regional credit conditions—but their scale and business mix create distinct trade-offs.
7 ) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, analyst positioning, and capital-return signals, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward BY in the current environment. The stock's combination of record earnings, a meaningful dividend increase, improving efficiency, and a consensus "Buy" rating reflects steadier momentum and clearer near-term catalysts than SRCE, whose stronger price run has left valuation richer relative to its "Hold" consensus. That said, the preference is probabilistic rather than definitive: SRCE offers diversification through fee-based wealth and insurance income and has demonstrated disciplined execution. The balance could shift if credit trends, rate expectations, or relative valuations change.
8 ) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BY is a Hold and SRCE is a Hold.
BY in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026
BY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 39 cases where BY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BY as a result. In 57 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BY just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where BY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
BY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BY advanced for three days, in 157 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for BY entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.316) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.408) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.712) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
SRCE in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
SRCE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 54 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SRCE as a result. In 53 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SRCE just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SRCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +1.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SRCE advanced for three days, in 173 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
SRCE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for SRCE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SRCE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for SRCE entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SRCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.602) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (12.508) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.380) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.617) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BY | SRCE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BY's Valuation (56) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (79). This means that BY’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BY (33). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BY’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's SMR Rating (19) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BY (19). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BY’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BY (44). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BY’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BY (27). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to BY’s over the last 12 months.
| BY | SRCE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 56% | 7 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 57% | 16 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BY’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while SRCE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BY’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SRCE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SRCE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SRCE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +2.95% price change this week, while SRCE (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
BY is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.71% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BY has been closely correlated with HBNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BY jumps, then HBNC could also see price increases.
SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with THFF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then THFF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | +1.60% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | +2.13% | ||
| PEBO - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +2.30% | ||
| MBWM - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +2.91% | ||
| NBTB - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +2.60% | ||
| BY - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
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