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BGC vs MORN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BGC Group (BGC) vs. Morningstar (MORN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BGC Group (BGC) is a high-growth brokerage and fintech marketplace operator, with full-year 2025 revenue up roughly 30% year over year.
- Morningstar (MORN) is a defensive, subscription-driven research and data business, with 2025 revenue up about 7.5% and a strong adjusted operating margin near 23.8%.
- The two companies occupy different risk profiles: BGC is tied to trading volumes and market volatility, while MORN leans on recurring licensing and software revenue.
- MORN offers a higher, growing dividend and a sizable share buyback, while BGC pays a modest dividend and is reinvesting aggressively in electronic trading platforms such as FMX.
- Recent relative performance has diverged, with BGC benefiting from elevated market activity and MORN shares under pressure despite steady fundamentals.
Introduction
Investors weighing a stock comparison between BGC and MORN are essentially evaluating two very different ways to participate in the financial services economy. BGC Group is an interdealer broker and electronic marketplace whose results rise and fall with trading volumes and volatility, while Morningstar is a data, research, and analytics franchise built on recurring subscriptions. This contrast makes the pair useful for traders focused on relative performance and market positioning, as well as for longer-term investors comparing cyclical growth against steadier, asset-light cash generation.
BGC Overview and Recent Performance
BGC Group, Inc. operates a global marketplace, data, and financial technology business spanning fixed income, foreign exchange, energy, commodities, shipping, and equities, alongside the FMX Futures Exchange. In recent market activity, the company has reported record results, with full-year 2025 revenue of roughly $2.94 billion, up about 30% from the prior year, and fourth-quarter revenue up approximately 32%. Growth has been broad-based across asset classes, supported by the integration of the OTC Global Holdings acquisition, which expanded its energy, commodities, and shipping (ECS) franchise.
Sentiment around BGC has been shaped by several catalysts. Management has emphasized that volatility remains a tailwind for brokerage volumes, and the FMX U.S. Treasury and futures platforms have continued to gain adoption. The company has also guided to further revenue growth and announced cost-reduction initiatives. At the same time, the shares carry a relatively high price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, reflecting expectations for continued expansion rather than a purely defensive profile.
MORN Overview and Recent Performance
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading independent investment research firm providing data, ratings, and software through brands including PitchBook, Morningstar Direct, and Morningstar DBRS credit ratings. Its revenue is largely recurring, driven by licensing, subscriptions, and asset-based fees. For full-year 2025, Morningstar reported revenue of about $2.4 billion, up 7.5%, with organic growth near 8% and adjusted operating margin of approximately 23.8%.
Recent performance for MORN has been mixed from a shareholder perspective. While fundamentals have remained resilient — including a 10% dividend increase and a new $1 billion share repurchase program — the stock has traded under pressure over the past year. Investors have weighed softer net income growth, elevated debt levels, and questions about how quickly newer artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled products can re-accelerate earnings. This has left the valuation debate central to the stock's outlook.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies lies in their business models and growth drivers. BGC is a transaction-driven intermediary whose revenues scale with trading activity, making it more cyclical and sensitive to market volatility. MORN, by contrast, monetizes proprietary data and research through subscriptions and licenses, producing steadier, higher-margin revenue but slower growth.
On momentum and catalysts, BGC currently benefits from record revenue growth, share gains in electronic trading, and an expanding futures exchange. Morningstar's catalysts are more structural — dividend growth, buybacks, and AI product rollouts — but its shares have lagged as the market reassesses valuation and earnings trajectory. Risk factors also differ: BGC faces exposure to a downturn in trading volumes, while MORN faces competitive and execution risks in integrating AI tools and managing elevated leverage. Sector exposure reinforces the divide, with BGC tied to capital-markets activity and MORN anchored to the information and analytics economy.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, revenue momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward BGC in the current environment. The company's record growth, expanding electronic-trading franchise, and favorable volume backdrop present clearer near-term catalysts and stronger directional momentum than Morningstar's steadier but slower-growing profile. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive claim: BGC's higher valuation and cyclicality introduce meaningful risk if volatility subsides. Morningstar's recurring revenue and shareholder returns may appeal more to stability-focused investors, but its recent relative weakness suggests the AI would assign a higher probability of continued outperformance to BGC under current market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BGC is a Buy and MORN is a Buy.
BGC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BGC turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where BGC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BGC as a result. In 84 of 107 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
BGC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BGC advanced for three days, in 206 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
BGC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 166 of 202 cases where BGC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for BGC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.114) is normal, around the industry mean (3.532). P/E Ratio (29.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.846). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (7.708) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.805) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
MORN in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MORN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MORN as a result. In 50 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MORN just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where MORN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
MORN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.46% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MORN advanced for three days, in 168 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MORN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
MORN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MORN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MORN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.183) is normal, around the industry mean (4.019). P/E Ratio (21.109) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.786). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.770) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. MORN's P/S Ratio (3.171) is slightly lower than the industry average of (7.166).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MORN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
BGC | MORN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MORN's Valuation (71) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as BGC (73) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that MORN’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Electrical Products industry is significantly better than the same rating for MORN (100) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew significantly faster than MORN’s over the last 12 months.
MORN's SMR Rating (31) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as BGC (48) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that MORN’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
MORN's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as BGC (48) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that MORN’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's P/E Growth Rating (49) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as MORN (54) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to MORN’s over the last 12 months.
| BGC | MORN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MORN’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MORN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BGC’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MORN’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BGC’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 2 bearish.
- MORN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
BGC (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а +2.78% price change this week, while MORN (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +4.82% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -5.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -16.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +2.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
BGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
MORN is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-5.09% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Financial Publishing/Services (+2.74% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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BGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BGC has been loosely correlated with NDAQ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BGC jumps, then NDAQ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGC | 100% | +0.51% | ||
| NDAQ - BGC | 56% Loosely correlated | +7.47% | ||
| RJF - BGC | 52% Loosely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| MCO - BGC | 51% Loosely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| MORN - BGC | 50% Loosely correlated | +4.46% | ||
| SPGI - BGC | 47% Loosely correlated | +2.24% | ||
More | ||||
MORN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MORN has been loosely correlated with JEF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MORN jumps, then JEF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MORN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORN | 100% | +4.46% | ||
| JEF - MORN | 64% Loosely correlated | +1.35% | ||
| SF - MORN | 63% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| PIPR - MORN | 63% Loosely correlated | +1.77% | ||
| SPGI - MORN | 63% Loosely correlated | +2.24% | ||
| GS - MORN | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.48% | ||
More | ||||
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