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BGC vs MORN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BGC Group (BGC) vs. Morningstar (MORN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BGC Group (BGC) has posted robust revenue growth driven by its transformative acquisition of OTC Global Holdings and record volumes on its FMX electronic trading platforms, with full-year 2025 revenue surging 30% to $2.94 billion.
- Morningstar (MORN) delivered steady high-single-digit organic revenue growth in 2025, supported by its PitchBook, Morningstar Credit, and Direct Platform segments, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 25% year-over-year to $9.86.
- BGC trades at a higher trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of approximately 31.5x but has significantly stronger price momentum, up roughly 31% year-to-date, compared with Morningstar's decline of approximately 20% over the same period.
- Morningstar carries a lower P/E of roughly 17.7x and returns significant capital to shareholders through an aggressive buyback program and a $2.00 annual dividend, but its stock has been under substantial pressure over the past twelve months.
- The two companies operate in fundamentally different segments of the financial services ecosystem: BGC is an interdealer broker and exchange operator, while Morningstar is an investment research, data, and analytics provider.
- Risk profiles diverge sharply — BGC faces integration risk from its OTC acquisition and higher leverage, while Morningstar confronts slowing momentum in ESG (environmental, social, and governance) products and meaningful stock price drawdowns.
Introduction
Investors evaluating opportunities in the financial services sector often encounter very different types of businesses, even within the same broad industry. BGC Group and Morningstar illustrate this contrast well. BGC operates as a global brokerage and financial technology company facilitating trading across rates, foreign exchange, energy, commodities, and equities, while Morningstar is a leading independent provider of investment research, data, ratings, and analytics. This stock comparison examines how these two companies differ across business models, growth trajectories, valuation, and market sentiment — offering a useful lens for traders and investors weighing relative positioning in the current market environment.
BGC Overview and Recent Performance
BGC Group, Inc. is a global marketplace, data, and financial technology services company headquartered in New York. The firm specializes in brokerage and trade execution across fixed income, foreign exchange, equities, and energy, commodities, and shipping (ECS) products. In recent quarters, BGC has undergone a significant strategic transformation, most notably through its acquisition of OTC Global Holdings, which closed on April 1, 2025. This purchase — executed for $325 million in a substantially all-cash transaction — added over $400 million in annualized revenue and positioned BGC as the world's largest ECS broker.
BGC's financial results for full-year 2025 reflect the impact of this expansion. The company reported record annual revenues of $2.94 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year, while fourth-quarter 2025 revenue reached $756.4 million, up 32.2%. Post-tax adjusted earnings per share for 2025 came in at $1.18, up roughly 20% from the prior year. The company's Fenics electronic trading platform also set new benchmarks, with its FMX U.S. Treasury platform achieving record average daily volume (ADV) exceeding $60 billion in early 2025, and FMX FX volumes more than doubling. Looking ahead, BGC provided first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance of $860 million to $920 million, indicating continued momentum. The stock has reflected this optimism, with shares trading near $11.65 in recent sessions — up roughly 31% year-to-date — though the P/E ratio of approximately 31.5x on trailing earnings signals elevated expectations.
MORN Overview and Recent Performance
MORN (Morningstar, Inc.), headquartered in Chicago, is a leading independent provider of investment insights, data, research, and analytics serving individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers. The company's key growth engines include PitchBook (its private market data platform), the Morningstar Direct Platform (portfolio analysis and data), and Morningstar Credit (independent credit ratings). In early February 2026, Morningstar closed its acquisition of the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), a move designed to scale its index business and position Morningstar Indexes as a significant player in U.S. equity benchmarks.
For full-year 2025, Morningstar reported revenue of $2.4 billion, representing 7.5% reported growth and 8.0% organic growth. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 25% to $9.86, and adjusted operating margin expanded to 23.8% from 21.7% a year earlier. The company also completed a $500 million share repurchase program in October 2025 and authorized a new $1 billion buyback plan, underscoring management's commitment to returning capital. Despite solid operational performance, Morningstar's stock has faced significant headwinds: shares recently traded near $172.61, down approximately 20% year-to-date and roughly 37% lower over the trailing twelve months. The stock's lower P/E of about 17.7x reflects a more cautious market assessment, potentially linked to deceleration in its Sustainalytics ESG segment and broader valuation compression in data and analytics names.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental distinction between BGC and MORN lies in their business models. BGC generates revenue primarily through brokerage commissions and spreads on transaction volumes across fixed income, currencies, commodities, and equities — making it highly sensitive to trading activity, market volatility, and interest rate dynamics. Morningstar, by contrast, derives most of its revenue from subscription-based data, research, and analytics products, creating a more recurring, annuity-like revenue stream with high client retention rates.
Growth trajectories also diverge. BGC's revenue growth has accelerated sharply — 30% in 2025 — driven largely by the OTC Global Holdings acquisition, which doubled its ECS segment. Organic growth across Fenics and FMX platforms has been strong as well, but integration execution remains a key watchpoint. Morningstar's growth is more measured and organic-driven, with PitchBook, Credit, and the Direct Platform compounding at high-single to low-double-digit rates. However, Morningstar's Sustainalytics and Retirement segments have faced headwinds, weighing on overall momentum.
From a valuation and sentiment standpoint, the contrast is striking. BGC trades at roughly 31.5x trailing earnings but has significant price momentum, reflecting market enthusiasm for its acquisition-driven expansion and electronic trading growth. Morningstar trades at a more modest 17.7x earnings, suggesting the market is discounting its steadier but slower growth profile — or pricing in concerns about sustained competitive pressure in data and analytics. Morningstar's aggressive buyback activity (over $787 million repurchased in 2025) and $2.00 annual dividend provide tangible shareholder returns that BGC's $0.08 annual dividend cannot match.
Risk factors differ meaningfully. BGC carries elevated debt following its acquisitions, with GAAP debt of $1.92 billion as of mid-2025, and faces integration risk and margin pressure from lower-margin acquired businesses. Morningstar's risks include execution risk around its CRSP acquisition, competitive pressure in ESG and index markets, and the stock's sharp drawdown from 52-week highs — which could signal either a value opportunity or fundamental deterioration.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend data and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely tilt in favor of BGC in the current environment. The stock's persistent upward price trend, strong volume confirmation across its FMX and Fenics platforms, and clear catalysts — including the OTC integration synergies and expanding electronic market share — create a favorable momentum profile. BGC's year-to-date gains of roughly 31% and consistent record-breaking quarterly revenue reports reinforce this trend consistency.
MORN, while fundamentally sound with improving margins and aggressive capital return, faces a more challenged technical picture, with its stock declining approximately 37% over the past year and breaking below key moving averages. The divergence between solid operational execution and weak price action suggests the market is repricing the stock's growth expectations, which could eventually create a compelling entry point but does not favor near-term trend-following strategies. The AI's preference for BGC reflects probability-weighted assessment of trend direction and catalyst visibility rather than any judgment on Morningstar's long-term business quality.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BGC is a StrongBuy and MORN is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMORN’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MORN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BGC’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MORN’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BGC’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MORN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BGC (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -1.12% price change this week, while MORN (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +11.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was +0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.94%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +0.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
BGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
MORN is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (+0.01% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Financial Publishing/Services (+0.21% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
| BGC | MORN | BGC / MORN | |
| Capitalization | 5.45B | 7.22B | 75% |
| EBITDA | 490M | 818M | 60% |
| Gain YTD | 29.512 | -10.648 | -277% |
| P/E Ratio | 28.80 | 18.32 | 157% |
| Revenue | 3.18B | 2.57B | 124% |
| Total Cash | 781M | 524M | 149% |
| Total Debt | 1.78B | 1.91B | 93% |
BGC | MORN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MORN's Valuation (39) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as BGC (70) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that MORN’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Electrical Products industry is significantly better than the same rating for MORN (100) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew significantly faster than MORN’s over the last 12 months.
MORN's SMR Rating (32) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as BGC (52) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that MORN’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as MORN (46) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to MORN’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's P/E Growth Rating (59) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as MORN (87) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to MORN’s over the last 12 months.
| BGC | MORN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 40% |
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BGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BGC has been loosely correlated with NDAQ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BGC jumps, then NDAQ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGC | 100% | -1.37% | ||
| NDAQ - BGC | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.02% | ||
| RJF - BGC | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.58% | ||
| MCO - BGC | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| MORN - BGC | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.28% | ||
| SPGI - BGC | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
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