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BGC vs RJF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BGC Group (BGC) vs. Raymond James Financial (RJF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BGC Group has delivered explosive revenue growth — approximately 30% in fiscal 2025 — driven by organic expansion and its transformative acquisition of OTC Global Holdings, which made it the world's largest ECS (Energy, Commodities, and Shipping) broker.
- Raymond James Financial offers a more mature, diversified model with $1.77 trillion in client assets under administration, 150 consecutive quarters of profitability, and a strong capital-return program including an 8% dividend hike and a $2 billion share buyback authorization.
- BGC trades at a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) above 31, reflecting growth expectations, while RJF trades at a trailing P/E near 16, suggesting a more value-oriented proposition with consistent earnings.
- RJF's wealth management and advisory franchise generates predictable fee-based revenue, whereas BGC's transaction-driven brokerage model is more sensitive to trading volumes and market volatility.
- Both stocks operate in the financial services sector, but their business models, risk profiles, and growth trajectories present fundamentally different investment narratives.
Introduction
This article compares BGC — BGC Group, Inc., a global brokerage, marketplace, and financial technology company — with RJF — Raymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services firm spanning wealth management, investment banking, asset management, and banking. While both operate within the broader financial sector, their scale, revenue composition, and growth profiles differ considerably. BGC is a mid-cap brokerage and trading platform operator with under $6 billion in market capitalization, while RJF is a large-cap diversified financial with a market cap exceeding $33 billion. This comparison is relevant for investors evaluating financial-sector exposure across the growth-to-value spectrum, as well as those seeking to understand how transaction-based and asset-based business models perform in the current market environment.
BGC Overview and Recent Performance
BGC operates as a leading global marketplace, data, and financial technology services company, connecting buyers and sellers across rates, foreign exchange, credit, equities, and ECS (Energy, Commodities, and Shipping) markets. Its Fenics electronic trading platform and FMX — a U.S. Treasury and foreign exchange venue backed by major global investment banks — represent its technology-driven growth engine.
The company has undergone a significant transformation in recent quarters. In April 2025, BGC completed its acquisition of OTC Global Holdings for approximately $325 million, becoming the world's largest ECS broker. This deal added over $400 million in annualized revenue and substantially diversified the company's brokerage mix. The momentum has been reflected in the financial results: BGC reported record full-year 2025 revenues approaching $2.94 billion, a roughly 30% increase year over year, with Q4 2025 revenues reaching $756.4 million — up approximately 32%. Adjusted EPS (earnings per share) for the full year reached $1.18, representing 19% growth.
Price behavior in recent weeks has shown resilience, with BGC trading near $11.65 as of late July 2026, and a 52-week range between $8.27 and $12.89. The company's trailing P/E stands above 31, reflecting the market's expectations for continued earnings expansion. Key catalysts include the ramp-up of FMX Futures Exchange volumes, cost-synergy realization from the OTC integration, and continued market share gains in electronic U.S. Treasury trading, where FMX has captured roughly 40% market share. A quarterly dividend of $0.02 per share provides a modest yield, underscoring that BGC remains primarily a capital appreciation story rather than an income play.
RJF Overview and Recent Performance
RJF — Raymond James Financial — is a diversified financial services company headquartered in St. Petersburg, Florida, providing private client group (wealth management), capital markets, asset management, and banking services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities. With more than 8,900 financial advisors and total client assets under administration of approximately $1.77 trillion, RJF is one of the largest wealth management platforms in the United States.
Raymond James has demonstrated remarkable consistency. The firm recently celebrated its 150th consecutive quarter of profitability — a track record spanning nearly four decades. In fiscal 2025, RJF generated record net revenues of $14.1 billion and record pre-tax income of $2.7 billion, with a return on common equity (ROE) of 17.7%. In its most recently reported fiscal quarter (Q1 2026, ended December 2025), net revenues reached $3.74 billion, a 6% increase year over year, while diluted EPS came in at $2.79. Asset management and related administrative fees grew 15% to $2.0 billion during that quarter, driven by market appreciation and strong net new asset inflows — domestic Private Client Group net new assets reached $30.8 billion, representing an annualized growth rate of 8%.
The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $138.82 to $177.66 and was priced around $169.30 in late July 2026. RJF's trailing P/E of roughly 16 is notably lower than BGC's, reflecting its mature, cash-generative profile. The company maintains robust capital ratios — a total capital ratio of 24.1% and a tier 1 leverage ratio above 13% — and has consistently returned capital to shareholders. In December 2025, RJF announced an 8% dividend increase to $0.54 per quarter alongside a new $2 billion share repurchase authorization. Analyst consensus on RJF remains predominantly "Buy" with an average price target above $180.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between BGC and RJF reflects two fundamentally different approaches to value creation in financial services.
Business Model: BGC is an inter-dealer broker and electronic marketplace operator whose revenue is primarily transaction-driven — it earns brokerage commissions and spreads when clients trade rates, FX, commodities, credit, and equities. RJF, by contrast, derives the bulk of its revenue from recurring asset-based fees in its Private Client Group, supplemented by investment banking and net interest income from its banking segment. This structural difference means BGC's top line is more directly correlated with trading volumes and market volatility, while RJF benefits from the compounding effect of growing client assets.
Growth Profile: BGC is in a high-growth phase, with revenues expanding roughly 30% in fiscal 2025 and guidance pointing to approximately 34% growth in Q1 2026 at the midpoint. The OTC acquisition and FMX platform expansion provide visible growth catalysts. RJF's growth is more measured — 6% to 10% annual revenue growth — but benefits from scale, diversification, and a sticky client base that generates consistent net new asset inflows.
Profitability and Valuation: RJF delivers substantially higher absolute profitability, with net income exceeding $1.5 billion annually and ROE consistently in the high teens. BGC's net margins hover around 6%, though they are expanding as electronic trading — which carries higher incremental margins — grows as a share of revenue. BGC's P/E of 31 reflects a growth premium, while RJF's P/E of approximately 16 reflects a value-oriented, cash-return profile.
Risk Factors: BGC carries integration risk from the OTC acquisition, higher financial leverage (debt rose to $1.92 billion post-acquisition), and sensitivity to trading volume cycles. RJF faces exposure to equity market downturns — which would compress asset-based fees — along with net interest margin pressure in a changing rate environment and regulatory risk tied to its banking and capital markets operations.
Capital Return: RJF is clearly the stronger income vehicle, having raised its dividend for over a decade and repurchasing billions in stock. BGC's $0.02 quarterly dividend is largely symbolic, with the company reinvesting capital into organic and acquisitive growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, momentum, growth catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI analytical framework would likely view BGC as having stronger near-term momentum characteristics — supported by its acquisition-driven revenue expansion, record FMX market share, and double-digit organic growth across multiple asset classes. The company's recent earnings beats and upward guidance trajectory align with the type of trend-following signals that many AI-driven strategies prioritize. Meanwhile, RJF presents a more stable, lower-volatility profile supported by consistent profitability, robust capital returns, and a loyal advisor base driving steady asset accumulation. An AI model optimizing for growth momentum would likely tilt toward BGC in the current environment, while a model prioritizing stability, profitability, and capital preservation would favor RJF. The divergence in these profiles illustrates why neither stock is categorically superior — the more suitable choice depends entirely on the objectives and risk tolerance embedded in a given strategy or portfolio.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BGC is a StrongBuy and RJF is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileRJF’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RJF’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BGC’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RJF’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BGC’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- RJF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BGC (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -1.12% price change this week, while RJF (@Investment Managers) price change was +3.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was +0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.94%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
BGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
RJF is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (+0.01% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Investment Managers (+0.71% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
| BGC | RJF | BGC / RJF | |
| Capitalization | 5.45B | 33.8B | 16% |
| EBITDA | 490M | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 29.512 | 10.758 | 274% |
| P/E Ratio | 28.80 | 15.34 | 188% |
| Revenue | 3.18B | 14.5B | 22% |
| Total Cash | 781M | 2.61B | 30% |
| Total Debt | 1.78B | 4.22B | 42% |
BGC | RJF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 86 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 26 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BGC's Valuation (70) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as RJF (71) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as BGC (32) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's SMR Rating (16) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BGC (52) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew somewhat faster than BGC’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's Price Growth Rating (26) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as BGC (43) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's P/E Growth Rating (58) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as BGC (59) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
| BGC | RJF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 14 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 53% |
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BGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BGC has been loosely correlated with NDAQ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BGC jumps, then NDAQ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGC | 100% | -1.37% | ||
| NDAQ - BGC | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.02% | ||
| RJF - BGC | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.58% | ||
| MCO - BGC | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| MORN - BGC | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.28% | ||
| SPGI - BGC | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
More | ||||