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BGC vs RJF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BGC Group (BGC) vs. Raymond James Financial (RJF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BGC is a global brokerage and financial technology company that grew revenue roughly 30% in fiscal 2025, driven by its FMX electronic platform and its OTC Global Holdings energy-brokerage acquisition.
- RJF is a diversified wealth-management and capital-markets firm with record client assets of about $1.77 trillion and a more stable, fee-based revenue profile.
- BGC is a smaller, higher-momentum name (roughly $5 billion market capitalization) with elevated volatility; RJF is a much larger, steadier franchise (roughly $33 billion) with a lower-risk earnings mix.
- RJF has returned more capital to shareholders, including an 8% dividend increase and a $2 billion buyback; BGC pays only a modest quarterly dividend.
- Analyst sentiment is largely "Hold" on RJF, while BGC has faced more mixed, cautious near-term ratings despite strong growth.
- The two companies serve different investor profiles: BGC appeals to growth and volatility-linked traders, while RJF suits investors seeking stability and capital returns.
Introduction
Investors comparing BGC and RJF are weighing two very different financial-services businesses. BGC Group operates interdealer brokerage markets, data, and financial technology, while Raymond James Financial is best known for its wealth-management and advisory franchise. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors assessing whether to favor a growth-oriented brokerage exposed to trading volumes and volatility, or a diversified financial firm with recurring fee income. Understanding each company's relative performance, market positioning, and risk drivers can help clarify which business model better fits a given portfolio objective or market outlook.
BGC Overview and Recent Performance
BGC Group, Inc. is a global marketplace, data, and financial technology company serving banks, broker-dealers, trading firms, and hedge funds across fixed income, foreign exchange (FX), energy, commodities, shipping, and equities. Its growth has been led by the Fenics electronic-trading platform and the FMX futures and U.S. Treasuries businesses, alongside its acquisition of energy broker OTC Global Holdings.
In recent quarters, BGC reported record revenues and double-digit organic growth, with management highlighting that market volatility tends to support brokerage volumes. The company has also executed cost reductions and divested lower-growth businesses to sharpen its focus on higher-margin electronic and energy franchises. Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's recent market activity has been more volatile, with shares trading well below 52-week highs in recent weeks and underperforming the broader market over short timeframes. Elevated valuation multiples and sensitivity to trading volumes remain key sentiment considerations.
RJF Overview and Recent Performance
Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a diversified financial-services company operating through its Private Client Group (wealth management), Capital Markets, Asset Management, and Bank segments. Its business leans on recurring fee-based advisory revenue, adviser recruiting, and net new asset growth.
In recent quarters, RJF reported record revenues, record client assets of roughly $1.77 trillion, and strong net new asset inflows, while adviser recruiting remained robust. The firm reinforced shareholder returns with an 8% dividend increase and a new $2 billion share-repurchase program, and it announced acquisitions such as Clark Capital Management and GreensLedge. Recent market activity has been comparatively steadier than BGC's, though the Capital Markets segment has faced softer merger-and-acquisition (M&A) advisory revenue. Lower short-term interest rates remain a moderate headwind to interest-related income, a factor influencing sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The central contrast between BGC and RJF is business-model orientation. BGC is a transaction-driven brokerage whose earnings scale with trading activity and market volatility, amplified by its electronic platforms and energy-brokerage expansion. RJF, by contrast, generates much of its revenue from stable, recurring asset-management and administrative fees tied to client assets under administration.
Growth dynamics also diverge. BGC has posted faster percentage revenue growth, but that growth is more cyclical and tied to capital-markets conditions. RJF grows through adviser recruiting and asset appreciation, producing steadier, compounding expansion with lower single-digit-to-double-digit revenue growth. Risk profiles differ accordingly: BGC carries higher beta, valuation, and earnings sensitivity to volumes, while RJF faces interest-rate sensitivity and M&A pipeline uncertainty.
On capital returns, RJF stands out with a meaningful dividend and active buybacks, whereas BGC offers a token dividend. Market sentiment has leaned cautious on BGC's near-term outlook despite strong results, while RJF's consensus is broadly neutral with modest price-target upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor RJF for its relative trend consistency, lower volatility, stable fee-based revenue, and disciplined capital returns. While BGC demonstrates stronger top-line momentum and compelling growth catalysts through FMX and Fenics, its earnings are more cyclical and its price action more erratic. The AI's assessment would therefore probably tilt toward RJF on stability and positioning, while recognizing that BGC could outperform in a high-volatility, high-volume trading environment. This conclusion reflects probabilistic analysis of momentum, consistency, and catalysts rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BGC is a Buy and RJF is a Buy.
BGC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BGC turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where BGC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BGC as a result. In 84 of 107 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
BGC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BGC advanced for three days, in 206 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
BGC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 166 of 202 cases where BGC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for BGC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.114) is normal, around the industry mean (3.532). P/E Ratio (29.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.846). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (7.708) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.805) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
RJF's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for RJF moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 24 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 55 cases where RJF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RJF as a result. In 49 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RJF just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where RJF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +2.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RJF advanced for three days, in 210 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
RJF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RJF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for RJF entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RJF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.358) is normal, around the industry mean (2.404). P/E Ratio (13.318) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.413). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.791) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.197) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
BGC | RJF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 63 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BGC's Valuation (73) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as RJF (84) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as RJF (29) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's SMR Rating (9) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BGC (48) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew somewhat faster than BGC’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as RJF (58) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's P/E Growth Rating (49) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as RJF (63) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
| BGC | RJF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while RJF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RJF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BGC’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RJF’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BGC’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 2 bearish.
- RJF’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BGC (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а +2.78% price change this week, while RJF (@Investment Managers) price change was -0.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -5.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -16.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -1.40%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.89%.
Reported Earning Dates
BGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
RJF is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-5.09% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Investment Managers (-1.40% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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BGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BGC has been loosely correlated with NDAQ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BGC jumps, then NDAQ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGC | 100% | +0.51% | ||
| NDAQ - BGC | 56% Loosely correlated | +7.47% | ||
| RJF - BGC | 52% Loosely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| MCO - BGC | 51% Loosely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| MORN - BGC | 50% Loosely correlated | +4.46% | ||
| SPGI - BGC | 47% Loosely correlated | +2.24% | ||
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RJF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RJF has been closely correlated with SF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RJF jumps, then SF could also see price increases.