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BGC vs NDAQ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BGC Group (BGC) vs. Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BGC is a brokerage and financial technology firm delivering sharply higher revenue, while NDAQ is a diversified exchange and technology operator with larger, more recurring revenue streams.
- Recent growth has favored BGC on a percentage basis, though Nasdaq's scale and stability present a different risk-reward profile.
- BGC's momentum is tied to electronic trading platforms such as FMX and energy brokerage, while Nasdaq's growth leans on fintech, index, and listing franchises.
- Nasdaq carries a far larger market capitalization and more recurring (subscription-like) revenue, while BGC offers a smaller, higher-growth and higher-volatility profile.
- Both companies returned capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in recent quarters.
Introduction
Investors comparing BGC and NDAQ are weighing two different approaches to capital-markets exposure. BGC Group, Inc. is an interdealer brokerage and financial technology company whose results track trading volumes and market volatility. Nasdaq, Inc. is a global exchange, listings, data, and fintech franchise with a heavier mix of recurring revenue. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors evaluating growth-versus-stability trade-offs, relative performance, and how each company is positioned across electronic trading, market data, and regulatory technology. Understanding the contrasts in business model and momentum can clarify which profile fits a given portfolio.
BGC Overview and Recent Performance
BGC Group, Inc. operates as a brokerage and financial technology company across the Americas, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific. Its businesses span voice, hybrid, and electronic brokerage, including the FMX platform, Fenics electronic trading, and Lucera network infrastructure. In recent quarters, BGC reported sharply higher revenue, driven by energy and shipping brokerage, market-share gains, and integration of acquired businesses such as OTC Global Holdings. Energy and Commodity Services (ECS) revenues more than doubled in the first quarter of 2026.
Recent stock behavior has reflected both strong earnings and a degree of caution. Management expanded an annualized cost-reduction program to roughly $35 million and authorized a $400 million share repurchase program, while maintaining a modest quarterly dividend. However, expense growth has risen alongside revenue, and guidance signaled a return toward normalized trading activity as earlier geopolitical and tariff-driven volume spikes faded. This has kept sentiment constructive but measured.
NDAQ Overview and Recent Performance
Nasdaq, Inc. is a diversified technology company serving capital markets worldwide, organized across Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services. Its revenue mix increasingly emphasizes recurring, subscription-based income from data, analytics, indexing, listings, and financial-crime and regulatory software, including the Verafin and Calypso platforms. In recent quarters, NDAQ posted double-digit net revenue growth across all three divisions and expanding non-GAAP operating margins.
Recent market activity has highlighted both strengths and constraints. Nasdaq welcomed a record volume of new listings, including several of the largest initial public offerings (IPOs) on record, and saw index-linked exchange-traded product assets under management (AUM) surpass $1 trillion. Financial Technology momentum, including adoption of AI-enabled compliance tools, remained robust. Even so, the stock has lagged the broader market on a trailing basis in recent periods, and the company raised its expense outlook, which investors have weighed against otherwise strong execution and capital returns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ fundamentally in business model. BGC is primarily an intermediary whose earnings are sensitive to trading volumes, volatility, and energy-market activity, making its growth faster but more cyclical. NDAQ is a more diversified operator with a large recurring-revenue base from data, indexing, listings, and software, offering greater stability but typically slower headline growth.
On momentum, BGC has delivered the larger percentage revenue gains, driven by electronic-trading market-share expansion and energy brokerage. Nasdaq has shown steadier, broad-based growth but has trailed the broader equity market on a relative performance basis in recent periods. Risk profiles also differ: BGC carries higher operational leverage and sensitivity to trading conditions, while Nasdaq faces integration and expense pressures from its fintech buildout alongside regulatory and competitive dynamics. On market positioning, Nasdaq's scale, recurring revenue, and strong cash generation contrast with BGC's smaller size, higher beta, and more pronounced catalyst-driven swings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NDAQ for its trend consistency and stability, given a larger recurring-revenue base, diversified growth drivers, and strong cash generation. At the same time, BGC may attract AI models oriented toward momentum and catalyst-driven upside, reflecting its faster revenue growth and expanding electronic-trading footprint. The favorable profile depends on the strategy: stability-oriented signals lean toward Nasdaq, while higher-risk momentum signals could tilt toward BGC. This assessment reflects relative positioning and probabilities rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BGC is a Hold and NDAQ is a Buy.
BGC in -1.84% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 30, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where BGC declined for three days, in 184 of 283 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BGC turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
BGC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BGC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BGC as a result. In 80 of 107 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +2.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BGC advanced for three days, in 206 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 164 of 202 cases where BGC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 81%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.795) is normal, around the industry mean (3.059). P/E Ratio (27.195) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.833). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (8.748) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.805) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
NDAQ's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NDAQ turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NDAQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NDAQ as a result. In 49 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
NDAQ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NDAQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +2.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NDAQ advanced for three days, in 224 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 340 cases where NDAQ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NDAQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
NDAQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NDAQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.988) is normal, around the industry mean (4.189). P/E Ratio (30.916) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.505). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.831) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
BGC | NDAQ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 9 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BGC's Valuation (74) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as NDAQ (88) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as BGC (28) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
BGC's SMR Rating (48) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as NDAQ (52) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that BGC’s stock grew similarly to NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (9) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BGC (51) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than BGC’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as BGC (59) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to BGC’s over the last 12 months.
| BGC | NDAQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 21 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 45% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 81% | 1 day ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NDAQ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BGC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NDAQ’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BGC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BGC (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -3.22% price change this week, while NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +2.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -6.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was -23.80%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +4.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
BGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-6.31% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Financial Publishing/Services (+4.20% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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BGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BGC has been loosely correlated with NDAQ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BGC jumps, then NDAQ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGC | 100% | -2.28% | ||
| NDAQ - BGC | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.52% | ||
| RJF - BGC | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.39% | ||
| MCO - BGC | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.46% | ||
| MORN - BGC | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.85% | ||
| SPGI - BGC | 47% Loosely correlated | -1.92% | ||
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