Advertisement
CASH vs FRME
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Pathward Financial (CASH) vs. First Merchants Corporation (FRME) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Pathward Financial (CASH) operates a banking-as-a-service and commercial finance model, while First Merchants Corporation (FRME) is a traditional Midwest regional bank.
- Pathward has expanded partnerships with firms such as Trustly, Stripe, and Greenlight, supporting fee income and a notably high net interest margin.
- First Merchants has grown through acquisition, most recently integrating First Savings, lifting total assets to roughly $21.3 billion.
- Both names carry credit-quality watchpoints, with Pathward noting higher nonperforming loans and First Merchants provisioning against two large commercial credits.
- Investor profiles differ: Pathward skews toward payments and partner-driven growth, while First Merchants offers a regional-bank franchise with a dividend.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two U.S. financial institutions with very different operating models. CASH (Pathward Financial) is a banking-as-a-service provider and commercial finance specialist, while FRME (First Merchants Corporation) is a community and regional bank serving commercial and consumer clients across the Midwest. Investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning will find the contrast instructive: one company is oriented around payments, tax services, and partner ecosystems, while the other is building scale through branch expansion and acquisitions. Understanding these structural differences helps clarify why their recent momentum, risk profiles, and sentiment have diverged in the current market environment.
CASH Overview and Recent Performance
CASH refers to Pathward Financial, a financial services company formerly known as Meta Financial until its 2022 rebranding. Pathward provides sponsored banking and payments solutions, commercial finance, and tax-related refund-transfer services, enabling partners to offer prepaid cards, payments processing, and lending products. This partner-driven model generates a substantial portion of revenue from noninterest, fee-based income rather than traditional branch lending.
In recent market activity, Pathward has reported strong profitability metrics, including a full-year net interest margin near 7% and a return on average tangible common equity (ROTCE, a measure of how efficiently a bank earns profits on shareholder capital) in the high-30% range. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 earnings guidance and completed a significant share repurchase that retired a meaningful percentage of shares outstanding. New partnerships with firms such as Trustly, Stripe, and Greenlight have supported fee-income growth and expanded the company's partner pipeline. At the same time, investors have monitored rising nonperforming loans and the impact of a consumer finance portfolio sale, which may weigh on near-term interest income. These factors have contributed to mixed but generally constructive sentiment toward the stock.
FRME Overview and Recent Performance
FRME is the ticker for First Merchants Corporation, the financial holding company for First Merchants Bank, a regional bank headquartered in Indiana. The company provides commercial and consumer banking services across a network that expanded to 126 banking centers following its integration of First Savings. Its business is anchored in traditional lending, deposit gathering, and wealth and treasury services.
Recent performance reflects a company in an acquisition-driven growth phase. First Merchants has grown its balance sheet substantially, with total assets reaching approximately $21.3 billion, supported by loan and deposit growth. Net interest income and the net interest margin (the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits) have improved, and noninterest income has risen on higher customer-related fees. However, earnings per share have faced pressure from a sizeable credit provision tied to two large commercial loans moved to nonaccrual status, as well as integration and mortgage-sale related expenses. Analysts have maintained constructive ratings while trimming price targets, reflecting a balance between franchise expansion and near-term credit headwinds.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a more systematic approach to relative performance, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of the platform's most relevant automated strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, statistics, and target list of securities. Because market conditions shift, not every bot is suitable at a given moment; only the best-performing and most appropriate strategies are featured in the Trending AI Robots section. The bots vary widely, from short-term momentum models to longer-horizon trend-following systems, giving traders flexibility in matching a strategy to their objectives. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help investors identify automated approaches aligned with current conditions.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both are financial companies, CASH and FRME differ sharply in business model and growth drivers. Pathward's revenue leans on partner-driven fee income, payments, and commercial finance, giving it a higher net interest margin and strong returns on tangible equity but also concentration in a narrower set of revenue streams. First Merchants relies on a diversified regional deposit and loan franchise, with growth coming largely from acquisitions and branch expansion.
On momentum, Pathward has demonstrated resilient profitability and active capital return through buybacks, though credit-quality trends and the consumer portfolio sale introduce uncertainty. First Merchants has posted improving net interest income and deposit growth, but earnings have been pressured by credit provisions and integration costs. Risk profiles also diverge: Pathward's model exposes it to partner concentration and regulatory scrutiny in banking-as-a-service, while First Merchants faces traditional commercial real estate and credit-cycle risks within its lending footprint.
From a sector-exposure and market-positioning standpoint, Pathward is better characterized as a fintech-adjacent financial services company, whereas First Merchants is a conventional regional bank. This distinction means the two stocks often respond differently to interest rates, payment-industry trends, and regional economic conditions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CASH in the current environment, though the conclusion is probabilistic rather than definitive. Pathward's higher net interest margin, strong return on tangible equity, expanding partner ecosystem, and active buyback program suggest more consistent momentum and clearer near-term catalysts. First Merchants' franchise expansion and improved net interest income are encouraging, but elevated credit provisions and integration-related earnings pressure may keep its trend less stable in the near term. Traders should weigh these signals alongside their own risk tolerance and objectives rather than treating the verdict as a directive.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CASH is a Hold and FRME is a StrongBuy.
CASH sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
CASH saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 11, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 45 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CASH moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CASH as a result. In 45 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
CASH moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CASH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
CASH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for CASH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +2.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CASH advanced for three days, in 210 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 141 of 242 cases where CASH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.862) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (9.497) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.300) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.003) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.525) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CASH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CASH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
FRME sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On November 10, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for FRME moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 64 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 41 of the 64 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FRME as a result. In 47 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FRME just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where FRME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
FRME moved above its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FRME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Following a +2.11% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FRME advanced for three days, in 171 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 84 of 206 cases where FRME Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 41%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FRME declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
FRME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.960) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (13.045) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.530) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.542) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FRME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FRME’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
CASH | FRME | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 21 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FRME's Valuation (47) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as CASH (53) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FRME’s stock grew similarly to CASH’s over the last 12 months.
CASH's Profit vs Risk Rating (67) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as FRME (76) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that CASH’s stock grew similarly to FRME’s over the last 12 months.
CASH's SMR Rating (16) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as FRME (16) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that CASH’s stock grew similarly to FRME’s over the last 12 months.
FRME's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as CASH (57) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FRME’s stock grew similarly to CASH’s over the last 12 months.
FRME's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as CASH (33) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FRME’s stock grew similarly to CASH’s over the last 12 months.
| CASH | FRME | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 65% | 27 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 64% | 1 day ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 41% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CASH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while FRME’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CASH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- FRME’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CASH’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FRME’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CASH’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- FRME’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CASH (@Regional Banks) experienced а -2.76% price change this week, while FRME (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.80%.
Reported Earning Dates
CASH is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
FRME is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.23% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
Advertisement
CASH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CASH has been loosely correlated with FRME. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CASH jumps, then FRME could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CASH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASH | 100% | +0.04% | ||
| FRME - CASH | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.32% | ||
| SSB - CASH | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.43% | ||
| AMAL - CASH | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| ONB - CASH | 62% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| INDB - CASH | 60% Loosely correlated | -0.22% | ||
More | ||||
FRME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FRME has been closely correlated with EFSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FRME jumps, then EFSC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FRME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRME | 100% | -0.32% | ||
| EFSC - FRME | 85% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| UBSI - FRME | 84% Closely correlated | -0.83% | ||
| FULT - FRME | 84% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| NBTB - FRME | 84% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| ASB - FRME | 83% Closely correlated | +0.13% | ||
More | ||||