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CASY vs MUSA
Casey's General Stores (CASY) vs Murphy USA (MUSA) Earnings Recap: Q3 Beat Drives Profit Surge
Key Takeaways
- Casey's General Stores (CASY) reported Q3 FY2026 diluted EPS of $3.49, up 49.8% year-over-year, beating consensus estimates by 16% with revenue of $3.92 billion.
- Fuel gross profit at CASY rose 15.3% to $348.2 million on 41.0 cents per gallon margins; inside gross profit climbed 8.9% to $624.0 million with 42.2% margins.
- Murphy USA (MUSA) posted Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $7.53, surpassing estimates, driven by retail fuel margins expanding to 31.0 cents per gallon and 3.1% higher volumes.
- CASY operates ~2,924 stores with a food-focused model yielding superior inside margins; MUSA runs ~1,800 sites emphasizing fuel contribution at 34.3 cents per gallon.
- Both firms reaffirmed growth: CASY targets 18-20% FY2026 EBITDA growth and 80+ new stores; MUSA eyes $1 billion adjusted EBITDA.
- CASY's nine-month net income up 23.1% to $551.8 million underscores resilient execution amid fuel volatility.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Casey's General Stores and Murphy USA operate in the convenience retail sector, blending fuel sales with high-margin inside merchandise and foodservice. CASY, with its rural Midwest focus and pizza leadership, emphasizes prepared foods driving inside sales growth. MUSA, concentrated in the Southeast, prioritizes fuel volume and margins through Walmart-adjacent locations. Recent earnings highlight sector dynamics: expanding fuel margins amid stable volumes, alongside inside sales resilience. This matchup reveals how food diversification buffers fuel dependency, informing investor views on growth sustainability in a consolidating industry.
Casey's General Stores Focus
Casey's General Stores released Q3 FY2026 results for the three months ended January 31, 2026, posting diluted EPS of $3.49, a 49.8% increase from $2.33 year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.01. Total revenue reached $3.92 billion, up 0.3%, with net income surging 49.3% to $130.1 million. Fuel gallons rose 2.3% to 848.4 million, supported by same-store growth of 0.4%, yielding fuel gross profit of $348.2 million (up 15.3%) at 41.0 cents per gallon. Inside sales climbed 5.7% to $1.48 billion, with same-store sales up 4.0%; inside gross profit hit $624.0 million (up 8.9%) at 42.2% margins, fueled by prepared food (58.3% margin) and grocery (35.7%). EBITDA grew 27.5% to $308.9 million. For nine months, revenue expanded 8.7% to $12.99 billion, net income 23.1% to $551.8 million. FY2026 guidance includes 18-20% EBITDA growth, 3.5-4.5% inside same-store sales, and 80+ store openings.
Murphy USA Context
Murphy USA's most recent Q4 2025 results showed adjusted diluted EPS of $7.53, beating consensus by 12.9% versus $6.96 prior year. Revenue totaled $4.74 billion, up 0.7% but missing estimates, with net income at $141.9 million. Total fuel contribution rose 8.9% to $423.6 million at 34.3 cents per gallon; retail fuel margins improved to 31.0 cents per gallon (up 7.3%), supporting 1,234.2 million gallons (up 3.1%, same-store +0.3%). Merchandise strength offset softer petroleum sales. Full-year 2025 net income was $470.6 million at $24.10 EPS. With ~1,800 stores, MUSA targets $1 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2026 via 45-55 new stores, leveraging fuel efficiency and share repurchases ($67.5 million in Q4).
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
CASY (~$24.6 billion market cap, 2,924 stores) outperforms on inside metrics with 42.2% margins versus MUSA's (~$8.1 billion cap, 1,800 stores) fuel-centric 34.3 cents per gallon contribution. CASY's Q3 EPS growth (49.8%) and EBITDA (27.5%) eclipse MUSA's steady Q4 EPS beat, reflecting food diversification (pizza, prepared items) amid fuel margin parity (~40 vs. 34 cents/gallon). Growth drivers favor CASY's 500-store pipeline and rural dominance; MUSA counters with volume gains but faces fuel demand risks. Sentiment leans toward CASY for stability, though both exhibit low beta and dividend appeal.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors CASY with 65% probability over the next quarter, citing superior earnings quality (16% beat, 42% inside margins), trend strength from store expansion, and stable positioning versus MUSA's fuel exposure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CASY is a StrongBuy and MUSA is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CASY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMUSA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CASY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MUSA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CASY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MUSA’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CASY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MUSA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CASY (@Specialty Stores) experienced а -4.69% price change this week, while MUSA (@Specialty Stores) price change was -3.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was -1.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.40%.
Reported Earning Dates
CASY is expected to report earnings on Sep 14, 2026.
MUSA is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Specialty Stores (-1.60% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
| CASY | MUSA | CASY / MUSA | |
| Capitalization | 30.8B | 10.2B | 302% |
| EBITDA | 1.4B | 1.12B | 125% |
| Gain YTD | 50.685 | 36.880 | 137% |
| P/E Ratio | 43.41 | 19.18 | 226% |
| Revenue | 17B | 19.7B | 86% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 119M | - |
| Total Debt | 2.9B | 2.69B | 108% |
CASY | MUSA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 92 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 46 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MUSA's Valuation (85) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as CASY (92) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MUSA’s stock grew similarly to CASY’s over the last 12 months.
CASY's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as MUSA (21) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that CASY’s stock grew similarly to MUSA’s over the last 12 months.
MUSA's SMR Rating (15) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CASY (49) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MUSA’s stock grew somewhat faster than CASY’s over the last 12 months.
CASY's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as MUSA (45) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that CASY’s stock grew similarly to MUSA’s over the last 12 months.
CASY's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as MUSA (46) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that CASY’s stock grew similarly to MUSA’s over the last 12 months.
| CASY | MUSA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 35% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 68% | 12 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 8 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 48% |
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CASY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CASY has been loosely correlated with MUSA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 41% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CASY jumps, then MUSA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CASY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 100% | -1.28% | ||
| MUSA - CASY | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.01% | ||
| RUSHB - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | +1.91% | ||
| CPRT - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | -2.48% | ||
| ACVA - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | -1.70% | ||
| HNST - CASY | 28% Poorly correlated | -7.96% | ||
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