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CASY vs MUSA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Casey's General Stores (CASY) vs. Murphy USA (MUSA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CASY trades at a premium valuation with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 39.5, reflecting its higher-margin foodservice focus and consistent earnings growth.
- MUSA offers a more attractive valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio around 16, supported by strong fuel margin expansion in recent quarters.
- Both companies operate in the convenience retail sector, but CASY emphasizes prepared foods and inside sales while MUSA prioritizes high-volume fuel sales with lean merchandise offerings.
- Recent market activity shows CASY shares down approximately 9% over the past month amid broader sector rotation, while MUSA has declined about 12% over a similar period following robust second-quarter results.
- Year-to-date returns favor CASY with gains exceeding 37%, compared to roughly 25-29% for MUSA, highlighting differing momentum profiles.
- Both firms have executed share repurchases and dividend increases, though MUSA demonstrates higher leverage relative to its earnings base.
Introduction
Casey's General Stores (CASY) and Murphy USA (MUSA) represent two established players in the U.S. convenience retail and fuel distribution space. Investors and traders often examine these stocks together due to overlapping exposure to fuel economics, consumer spending patterns, and operational efficiencies in high-traffic locations. This comparison appeals to those seeking exposure to defensive consumer staples with cyclical fuel components, particularly portfolio managers evaluating relative value, growth consistency, and sector positioning in the current market environment. The analysis draws on verifiable financial metrics and recent developments to highlight key contrasts without forward-looking speculation.
CASY Overview and Recent Performance
Casey's General Stores operates a network of convenience stores primarily in the Midwest and South, with a strategic emphasis on prepared foods, inside sales, and fuel offerings. In recent weeks, the stock has experienced downward pressure, declining around 9% over the past month amid profit-taking following strong prior-year gains. Year-to-date performance remains solid at over 37%, outpacing broader market benchmarks. The company delivered record fiscal 2026 results earlier in the year, with diluted earnings per share rising 31% to $19.16 and net income up 31% to $714 million, driven by inside sales strength and margin expansion. Recent analyst actions include lowered price targets ahead of the fiscal first-quarter report scheduled for early September, reflecting tempered near-term expectations while maintaining generally positive ratings. Market sentiment has been influenced by integration of prior acquisitions and guidance for moderate inside same-store sales growth in the low-to-mid single digits for the new fiscal year.
MUSA Overview and Recent Performance
Murphy USA focuses on high-volume fuel retail and convenience merchandise, with many locations situated near major retailers. The stock has seen notable volatility in recent market activity, posting declines of approximately 12% over the past month despite solid underlying fundamentals. Year-to-date returns stand near 25-29%, supported by earlier momentum. Second-quarter 2026 results, released in early August, showed robust growth with net income reaching $209 million, up from $146 million year-over-year, fueled by fuel contribution margins expanding to 40.6 cents per gallon from 32.0 cents. Retail gallons sold increased 3.9%, and merchandise contribution rose 4%. The company has continued capital returns via share repurchases and a 28% dividend increase. Recent developments include rollout of automated foodservice platforms in select stores, while market positioning reflects sensitivity to fuel price dynamics and operational leverage.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ markedly: CASY derives higher margins from foodservice and inside sales, supporting a more stable revenue mix, whereas MUSA relies heavily on fuel volume and thinner margins that amplify sensitivity to commodity price swings. Growth drivers for CASY center on store expansions and category mix improvements, while MUSA benefits from site optimization and fuel supply economics. Recent momentum has favored CASY on a year-to-date basis, though both have faced short-term corrections amid sector-wide adjustments. Risk factors include MUSA's higher debt-to-equity ratio compared to CASY's more conservative balance sheet. Sector exposure remains similar within consumer staples and energy-adjacent retail, yet market sentiment currently assigns CASY a premium multiple reflective of its earnings consistency, while MUSA trades at a discount that may appeal to value-oriented participants.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings momentum, margin stability, and relative valuation positioning, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to MUSA. Its lower price-to-earnings ratio and demonstrated fuel margin resilience in the most recent quarter provide a favorable risk-reward profile compared to CASY's elevated multiple, even as the latter exhibits stronger historical earnings growth consistency. Trend consistency metrics and sector-relative positioning support this tilt, though outcomes remain subject to broader market variables and quarterly updates.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CASY is a Hold and MUSA is a Hold.
| CASY | MUSA | CASY / MUSA | |
| Capitalization | 22.7B | 9.62B | 236% |
| EBITDA | 1.48B | 1.21B | 122% |
| Gain YTD | 11.620 | 30.260 | 38% |
| P/E Ratio | 29.62 | 16.02 | 185% |
| Revenue | 17.6B | 21.5B | 82% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 175M | - |
| Total Debt | 2.91B | 2.74B | 106% |
CASY | MUSA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MUSA's Valuation (80) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as CASY (94) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MUSA’s stock grew similarly to CASY’s over the last 12 months.
MUSA's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as CASY (35) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MUSA’s stock grew similarly to CASY’s over the last 12 months.
MUSA's SMR Rating (15) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CASY (48) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MUSA’s stock grew somewhat faster than CASY’s over the last 12 months.
MUSA's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as CASY (65) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MUSA’s stock grew similarly to CASY’s over the last 12 months.
MUSA's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as CASY (62) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MUSA’s stock grew similarly to CASY’s over the last 12 months.
| CASY | MUSA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 68% | 12 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 16 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CASY’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while MUSA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CASY’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MUSA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CASY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MUSA’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CASY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MUSA’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CASY (@Specialty Stores) experienced а -18.60% price change this week, while MUSA (@Specialty Stores) price change was +2.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was -4.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
CASY is expected to report earnings on Sep 14, 2026.
MUSA is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Specialty Stores (-4.09% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
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CASY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor tells us that CASY and RUSHB have been poorly correlated (+30% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that CASY and RUSHB's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CASY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 100% | -1.94% | ||
| RUSHB - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | +1.36% | ||
| CPRT - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | -2.60% | ||
| ACVA - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | +44.18% | ||
| HNST - CASY | 28% Poorly correlated | +1.88% | ||
| RUSHA - CASY | 28% Poorly correlated | +0.25% | ||
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MUSA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MUSA has been loosely correlated with CASY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 43% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MUSA jumps, then CASY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MUSA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUSA | 100% | -0.42% | ||
| CASY - MUSA | 43% Loosely correlated | -1.94% | ||
| ORLY - MUSA | 35% Loosely correlated | +0.36% | ||
| AZO - MUSA | 29% Poorly correlated | -0.16% | ||
| CARS - MUSA | 26% Poorly correlated | +1.75% | ||
| SAH - MUSA | 26% Poorly correlated | -0.81% | ||
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