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CI vs ELV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Cigna Group (CI) vs. Elevance Health (ELV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CI operates a diversified healthcare portfolio anchored by its Evernorth pharmacy benefit services division, while ELV derives the bulk of its revenue from government-sponsored health plans including Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace offerings.
- Both stocks have faced margin compression in recent quarters, but CI has drawn concern specifically around its pharmacy benefit management (PBM) unit's two-year margin outlook, while ELV has been pressured by elevated medical cost ratios and a weaker-than-expected 2026 earnings forecast.
- CI trades at a notably lower forward earnings multiple and has deployed aggressive share repurchases, whereas ELV offers a longer track record of consecutive annual dividend increases and a more substantial remaining buyback authorization.
- Revenue growth has been stronger at CI (11% in full-year 2025), but ELV serves nearly 2.5 times as many medical members, reflecting fundamentally different business mixes.
- Investors comparing these two names are effectively weighing exposure to pharmacy services and commercial health plans (CI) against exposure to government-program-dependent insurance operations (ELV).
Introduction
In the large-cap managed care space, few comparisons are as instructive as that between The Cigna Group (CI) and Elevance Health (ELV). Both are multi-billion-dollar healthcare enterprises that shape how millions of Americans access medical care and prescription drugs — yet they have evolved along distinctly different strategic paths. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the healthcare sector but uncertain about whether to emphasize pharmacy benefit services and commercial insurance, or government-program-driven health plans. Their recent performance trajectories, valuation profiles, and risk factors offer a rich framework for examining relative positioning in the current market environment.
CI Overview and Recent Performance
The Cigna Group is a global health company headquartered in Bloomfield, Connecticut, operating through two primary segments: Evernorth Health Services and Cigna Healthcare. Evernorth encompasses pharmacy benefit management (PBM) — the administration of prescription drug programs — along with specialty pharmacy and care services, while Cigna Healthcare provides medical plans to employers and individuals. For full-year 2025, Cigna posted total revenues of $274.9 billion, an 11% increase over the prior year, alongside adjusted income from operations of $8.0 billion, or $29.84 per share. The company has guided for 2026 adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of at least $30.25. However, in recent months investor sentiment has been shaped by the company's disclosure during its third-quarter 2025 earnings call that Evernorth's pharmacy benefit services segment faces margin pressure over a two-year horizon. This, combined with a broader industry debate over PBM regulation, has weighed on the stock, which has traded well below its 52-week high. On the positive side, Cigna has continued returning significant capital to shareholders, repurchasing approximately $3.6 billion of stock in 2025 and increasing its quarterly dividend to $1.56 per share.
ELV Overview and Recent Performance
Elevance Health, headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, is one of the largest health insurers in the United States and the largest Blue Cross Blue Shield affiliate. The company operates through its Health Benefits segment — covering commercial, Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and ACA marketplace members — and Carelon, its healthcare services arm. For full-year 2025, Elevance generated operating revenue of $197.6 billion, a 13% increase, with adjusted diluted EPS of $30.29. Medical membership stood at approximately 45.2 million as of year-end, though attrition in the company's Medicaid business has been an ongoing headwind as states continue eligibility redeterminations. The full-year benefit expense ratio — a key metric measuring medical costs relative to premiums — rose to 90.0%, up 150 basis points year over year, reflecting elevated medical cost trends across multiple lines of business. The stock came under significant pressure when the company issued its 2026 outlook, projecting GAAP diluted EPS of at least $22.30 and adjusted diluted EPS of at least $25.50 — well below the prior year's results. Management has expressed confidence in returning to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth by 2027, supported by pricing discipline and strategic investments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies operate in the managed care universe, their business models diverge meaningfully. CI is fundamentally a pharmacy-services-driven enterprise: Evernorth alone contributed the vast majority of the company's top line in recent quarters, making Cigna more of a health services and PBM company with a complementary insurance arm. ELV, by contrast, is an insurance-first organization where premium revenue from government programs such as Medicaid and Medicare Advantage accounts for a dominant share of revenue.
On valuation, the contrast is stark. CI trades at a forward P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple in the range of roughly 9 to 11 times earnings — a deeply discounted level that reflects market anxiety around PBM regulation and the Evernorth margin outlook. ELV, even after its post-outlook selloff, has generally carried a somewhat higher multiple, though both stocks have seen compression from historical norms.
In terms of capital returns, both companies are shareholder-friendly, but their approaches differ. CI has been an exceptionally aggressive buyer of its own stock, leveraging its low valuation to retire shares at an accelerated pace. ELV has a longer track record of consecutive annual dividend increases — 15 years — and retains a substantial remaining share repurchase authorization of approximately $6.7 billion as of the end of 2025.
Risk profiles also differ. CI faces the overhang of federal and state legislative efforts targeting PBM transparency and rebate practices — a risk that is difficult to quantify but has already been partially priced in. ELV is more exposed to the fiscal health of state governments, Medicaid enrollment fluctuations, and the political sensitivity surrounding government healthcare spending. On the growth front, Cigna's 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $30.25 represents modest growth from 2025's $29.84, while Elevance's 2026 guidance implies a significant earnings contraction before an expected rebound in 2027.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, valuation support, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven framework would likely tilt in favor of CI in the current environment. The combination of a deeply discounted earnings multiple, aggressive share buybacks at compressed prices, a positive forward earnings trajectory, and a more diversified revenue mix between pharmacy services and insurance creates a probabilistic edge. While PBM regulatory risk is non-trivial, the market appears to have already embedded a significant degree of pessimism into Cigna's valuation. ELV, by contrast, faces near-term earnings contraction and ongoing Medicaid-related uncertainty that may take several quarters to fully resolve, even as its long-term algorithm suggests a return to double-digit EPS growth. Neither stock is without risk, but the AI's assessment favors the name where the margin of safety — both in valuation and in earnings momentum — appears more compelling at this juncture.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CI is a StrongBuy and ELV is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileELV’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ELV’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ELV’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ELV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CI (@Managed Health Care) experienced а -3.63% price change this week, while ELV (@Managed Health Care) price change was -0.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +40.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
CI is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
ELV is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (-2.68% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
| CI | ELV | CI / ELV | |
| Capitalization | 73.7B | 81.5B | 90% |
| EBITDA | 12.8B | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 2.537 | 8.314 | 31% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.54 | 16.62 | 69% |
| Revenue | 281B | 201B | 140% |
| Total Cash | 7.17B | 36B | 20% |
| Total Debt | 31.9B | 31B | 103% |
CI | ELV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 83 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 4 Undervalued | 6 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 94 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 56 | 98 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 75 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 43 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CI's Valuation (4) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as ELV (6). This means that CI’s stock grew similarly to ELV’s over the last 12 months.
CI's Profit vs Risk Rating (68) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as ELV (94). This means that CI’s stock grew similarly to ELV’s over the last 12 months.
CI's SMR Rating (56) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ELV (98). This means that CI’s stock grew somewhat faster than ELV’s over the last 12 months.
ELV's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as CI (51). This means that ELV’s stock grew similarly to CI’s over the last 12 months.
ELV's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CI (75). This means that ELV’s stock grew somewhat faster than CI’s over the last 12 months.
| CI | ELV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 63% | 7 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 11 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
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CI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CI has been loosely correlated with CVS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CI jumps, then CVS could also see price increases.
ELV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ELV has been loosely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ELV jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.