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CLF vs TX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) vs. Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) reported a Q1 2026 net loss driven by an $80 million energy cost surge from extreme weather, though adjusted EBITDA rose year-over-year to $95 million.
- Ternium S.A. (TX) sustains profitability with positive EPS of $2.20 (trailing twelve months) and a 6.28% dividend yield, despite a proposed dividend cut for 2025.
- CLF trades at a steep discount with negative earnings and high debt-to-equity of 129%, reflecting U.S. steel sector pressures, while TX shows healthier balance sheet leverage at 16%.
- Year-to-date, CLF gained 26.73% amid volatility, outperforming TX's 12.62% rise, but both face steel market headwinds.
- TX benefits from Latin American operations and stronger margins (2.72%), contrasting CLF's -6.44% profit margin.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) and Ternium S.A. (TX), two prominent steel producers navigating volatile commodity markets. CLF focuses on North American flat-rolled steel and iron ore pellets, while TX operates primarily in Latin America. Investors in the materials sector, particularly those tracking steel demand tied to infrastructure, autos, and construction, will find value in assessing their relative performance, valuations, and risk profiles amid recent earnings and cost pressures. This analysis highlights key contrasts in recent market positioning and financial health for informed relative performance evaluation.
CLF Overview and Recent Performance
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) is a major U.S.-based producer of flat-rolled steel, iron ore pellets, and stainless steel, serving automotive, infrastructure, and appliance sectors. In recent market activity, CLF shares traded around $9.73, reflecting heightened volatility following Q1 2026 earnings released on April 20. The company posted a GAAP net loss of $229 million ($0.42 per share), pressured by an unexpected $80 million rise in energy costs due to extreme weather, though adjusted EBITDA improved to $95 million year-over-year on higher pricing and volumes. Year-to-date gains reached 26.73%, rebounding from 52-week lows near $5.63, but post-earnings sentiment soured amid profitability concerns and high leverage (debt-to-equity at 129%). Broader steel demand fluctuations and input cost swings have shaped trader focus on CLF's operational resilience.
TX Overview and Recent Performance
Ternium S.A. (TX) is a leading steelmaker in Latin America, producing flat and long steel products for construction, auto, and industrial uses across Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. Shares recently hovered near $43.00, with year-to-date appreciation of 12.62% and a robust one-year return of 67.48%, trading within a 52-week range of $27.12 to $45.57. Recent developments include a board proposal to trim the 2025 dividend from $0.27 to $0.22 per share to strengthen the balance sheet amid global uncertainties, signaling prudent capital management. Positive EPS of $2.20 (trailing twelve months, or TTM) and a 2.72% profit margin underscore operational stability, bolstered by $3.13 billion in cash reserves versus moderate debt (debt-to-equity 16.14%). Sentiment remains supported by analyst upgrades and regional demand recovery.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CLF and TX operate in steel production but diverge geographically: CLF’s U.S. focus exposes it to domestic auto and infrastructure cycles, while TX leverages Latin American growth in construction and exports. Valuation-wise, CLF appears cheaper on price-to-sales (0.27) but burdened by negative EPS (-$2.32 TTM) and elevated risks from high debt and energy volatility; TX trades at a forward P/E of 9.17 with positive earnings momentum. Recent momentum favors CLF’s YTD surge, yet TX exhibits steadier one-year gains and dividends. Sector risks like raw material prices loom larger for debt-heavy CLF, while TX’s lower beta (1.19 vs. 1.92) suggests reduced volatility. Market sentiment tilts toward TX for balance sheet strength amid steel trade tensions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI tools, evaluating trend consistency, financial stability, and catalysts, would currently favor TX over CLF. TX demonstrates superior profitability, manageable debt, and dividend reliability, positioning it better for sustained steel sector recovery. While CLF offers upside potential from U.S. demand rebounds, its recent cost overruns and leverage introduce higher uncertainty. This probabilistic edge reflects observable metrics rather than guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CLF is a Hold and TX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CLF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CLF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CLF’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TX’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CLF’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TX’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CLF (@Steel) experienced а -12.77% price change this week, while TX (@Steel) price change was -6.59% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -6.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +144.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
CLF is expected to report earnings on Jul 27, 2026.
TX is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (-6.08% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| CLF | TX | CLF / TX | |
| Capitalization | 6.78B | 9.15B | 74% |
| EBITDA | 138M | 1.76B | 8% |
| Gain YTD | -10.467 | 25.686 | -41% |
| P/E Ratio | 145.67 | 15.54 | 937% |
| Revenue | 18.9B | 15.6B | 121% |
| Total Cash | 45M | 3.14B | 1% |
| Total Debt | 7.76B | 3.01B | 258% |
CLF | TX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 93 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 1 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 87 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TX's Valuation (1) in the Steel industry is significantly better than the same rating for CLF (67). This means that TX’s stock grew significantly faster than CLF’s over the last 12 months.
TX's Profit vs Risk Rating (48) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CLF (100). This means that TX’s stock grew somewhat faster than CLF’s over the last 12 months.
TX's SMR Rating (87) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CLF (97). This means that TX’s stock grew similarly to CLF’s over the last 12 months.
CLF's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Steel industry is in the same range as TX (41). This means that CLF’s stock grew similarly to TX’s over the last 12 months.
TX's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CLF (2). This means that TX’s stock grew similarly to CLF’s over the last 12 months.
| CLF | TX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 80% | 9 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 6 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 66% |
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CLF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CLF has been loosely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CLF jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
TX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TX has been closely correlated with MT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TX jumps, then MT could also see price increases.