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CMC vs MLI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. Mueller Industries (MLI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings that exceeded consensus estimates, driven by revenue growth and expanded core EBITDA margins.
- Mueller Industries (MLI) delivered strong first-quarter 2026 results with significant increases in net sales and operating income compared to the prior year.
- Both companies operate in the broader metals and fabrication sector, exposing them to similar commodity price fluctuations and industrial demand cycles.
- CMC has shown a 1-year stock gain in the range of 26-49% amid mixed year-to-date performance, while MLI benefited from robust quarterly operational improvements.
- Market sentiment for both stocks reflects resilience in core segments, with CMC noting contributions from acquisitions and European operations, and MLI highlighting sales momentum.
- Relative positioning favors stability in earnings beats for CMC and sales expansion for MLI in recent market activity.
Introduction
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) and Mueller Industries (MLI) represent two established players in the metals processing and fabrication industry. This comparison examines their business models, recent financial results, and stock performance to assist investors and traders evaluating relative value in the current environment. Participants in the sector, including those focused on industrial metals exposure, commodity cycles, or mid-cap equities, may find the analysis useful for assessing positioning and momentum. The review draws on verifiable earnings data and market observations from recent weeks to highlight contrasts without forward-looking speculation.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) engages in steel manufacturing, recycling, and related fabrication activities across North America and Europe. In recent market activity, the stock traded near $66, reflecting a year-to-date performance that lagged broader indices while delivering notable 1-year gains. Third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, released in late June 2026, showed adjusted earnings per share of $1.73, surpassing estimates, alongside revenue of $2.48 billion. Core EBITDA expanded substantially year-over-year due to improved metal margins, contributions from acquired precast businesses, and better performance in the Europe Steel Group. These factors supported sentiment in recent weeks, though the shares remained within a 52-week range influenced by broader industrial sector dynamics.
MLI Overview and Recent Performance
Mueller Industries (MLI) specializes in the production of copper, brass, aluminum, and other metal products, serving plumbing, HVAC, and industrial markets primarily in North America. Recent market activity highlighted operational strength, with first-quarter 2026 results demonstrating net sales of $1.19 billion and operating income rising 51.4% year-over-year. The stock has maintained stability amid sector trends, benefiting from sustained demand in core product lines. Performance in recent weeks aligned with positive earnings momentum, though the company remains subject to fluctuations in raw material costs and construction-related end markets. Overall positioning reflects resilience supported by volume and pricing improvements noted in the latest reported period.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) focuses on integrated steel production and recycling, providing exposure to global steel markets and recent acquisition synergies, whereas Mueller Industries (MLI) emphasizes downstream fabrication of copper and brass products tied more closely to construction and plumbing demand. In recent momentum, CMC recorded an earnings beat with EBITDA margin expansion, contrasting with MLI’s emphasis on sales growth and operating income gains. Risk factors for both include commodity price volatility and industrial cyclicality, though CMC carries additional geographic exposure through European operations. Sector sentiment remains balanced, with CMC benefiting from margin improvements and MLI from volume strength; trade-offs center on earnings consistency versus top-line expansion in the current market environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent earnings consistency, margin expansion, and relative stability in reported results, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to Commercial Metals Company (CMC) over Mueller Industries (MLI). The preference stems from the verified third-quarter beat and core segment gains, which indicate steadier trend alignment amid sector conditions. This assessment reflects data-driven positioning rather than certainty and remains subject to ongoing market developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a StrongBuy and MLI is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMLI’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MLI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MLI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MLI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +0.03% price change this week, while MLI (@Metal Fabrication) price change was +4.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -6.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
MLI is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (-6.37% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
| CMC | MLI | CMC / MLI | |
| Capitalization | 7.53B | 14.5B | 52% |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 1.19B | 96% |
| Gain YTD | -0.757 | 16.881 | -4% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.87 | 17.03 | 76% |
| Revenue | 8.85B | 4.37B | 202% |
| Total Cash | 560M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 3.4B | 22.8M | 14,912% |
CMC | MLI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 20 Undervalued | 19 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 27 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MLI's Valuation (19) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as CMC (20). This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as CMC (31). This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's SMR Rating (35) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as CMC (61). This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as CMC (49). This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Metal Fabrication industry is significantly better than the same rating for CMC (100). This means that MLI’s stock grew significantly faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | MLI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 29 days ago 62% | 17 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 2 days ago 37% |
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MLI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MLI has been loosely correlated with MTUS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MLI jumps, then MTUS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MLI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLI | 100% | +3.62% | ||
| MTUS - MLI | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.15% | ||
| CMC - MLI | 45% Loosely correlated | +3.57% | ||
| CODI - MLI | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.89% | ||
| MDU - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | -1.20% | ||
| NWPX - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | -1.57% | ||
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