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MLI vs MTUS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Mueller Industries (MLI) vs. Metallus (MTUS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MLI is a diversified manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products with a large, debt-light balance sheet and strong revenue momentum.
- MTUS is a specialty-steel producer increasingly leveraged to aerospace and defense demand, recently boosted by a major government contract award.
- The two companies operate in different metals niches: MLI skews toward construction, HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), and industrial plumbing, while MTUS skews toward automotive, energy, and defense.
- MLI has shown steadier profitability and a larger market capitalization, whereas MTUS offers a smaller-cap, higher-beta profile with more event-driven catalysts.
- Recent price action diverged: MLI pulled back after a quarterly margin miss, while MTUS rallied on contract-driven sentiment.
Introduction
Investors comparing MLI (Mueller Industries) and MTUS (Metallus) are weighing two very different ways to gain exposure to industrial metals. Both companies transform raw metal into manufactured products, yet their end markets, growth drivers, and risk profiles diverge sharply. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and sector exposure within the industrials and materials complex. Understanding how a diversified copper fabricator stacks up against a defense-oriented specialty-steel maker can clarify where each name fits in a broader portfolio and which set of catalysts is currently resonating with the market.
MLI Overview and Recent Performance
Mueller Industries is a global manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products serving plumbing, HVAC, refrigeration, and industrial applications. Its three operating segments—Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate—give it diversified demand across construction, electrical transmission, and commercial markets. In recent weeks, MLI has delivered strong top-line growth driven by higher copper prices and completed acquisitions, including Bison Metals Technologies and Chicago Extruded Metals.
However, sentiment cooled following its latest quarterly report, which paired a sizable revenue beat with a modest earnings-per-share (EPS) shortfall. Rising copper costs compressed operating margins, and investors focused on the gap between surging sales and bottom-line conversion. The stock pulled back from recent highs, though it remains comfortably higher over the trailing 12 months. A robust cash position with minimal debt, steady dividend increases, and a recent move into a broader large-cap index continue to underpin the investment case, even as margin pressure from raw-material costs remains a key watch item.
MTUS Overview and Recent Performance
Metallus is a specialty-metals producer based in Canton, Ohio, manufacturing alloy steel bars, seamless mechanical tubing, and precision components from recycled scrap. Its end markets include industrial, automotive, energy, and—increasingly—aerospace and defense. Over recent quarters, MTUS has reported rising shipments, improving pricing, and growing adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), supported by trade policy and onshoring trends.
Recent market activity has been driven largely by defense catalysts. The company announced a substantial Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity contract from the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency, along with an initial delivery order, sending shares higher in after-hours trading. Management has also guided toward a meaningful aerospace and defense revenue run-rate and highlighted government-supported capital projects. At the same time, a planned leadership transition—with the chief executive officer retiring and a successor named—adds a layer of execution risk that investors are monitoring alongside the company's improving fundamentals.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is breadth versus specialization. MLI operates a diversified, vertically integrated copper-focused model with meaningful exposure to construction and commercial demand, which provides stability but ties results to copper pricing and housing activity. MTUS is a more concentrated specialty-steel producer whose fortunes increasingly hinge on aerospace, defense, and industrial reshoring—offering higher potential catalysts but also greater cyclicality and a much smaller market capitalization.
On financial positioning, MLI's balance sheet is notably stronger, with substantial cash and minimal long-term debt, whereas MTUS carries a higher valuation on trailing earnings and a more modest profit base. Risk factors also differ: MLI faces raw-material cost pass-through and margin-compression risk, while MTUS faces labor, energy, and government-contract timing risks. In terms of recent momentum, MTUS has benefited from positive event-driven news, while MLI has experienced a consolidation phase following its latest earnings report.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MLI for its more consistent trend, stronger balance sheet, and steadier profitability, which tend to score well on stability-oriented signals. However, MTUS currently presents more concentrated momentum and catalyst-driven upside, which may appeal to trend-following or event-driven strategies. The probabilistic view is that MLI offers a more durable relative-performance profile, while MTUS offers higher potential reward with correspondingly higher volatility—making the appropriate choice dependent on a trader's timeframe and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MLI is a StrongBuy and MTUS is a Hold.
MLI's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MLI turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where MLI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MLI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 47 cases where MLI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +0.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MLI advanced for three days, in 241 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
MLI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 11, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MLI as a result. In 46 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The 50-day moving average for MLI moved below the 200-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MLI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for MLI entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.302) is normal, around the industry mean (2.913). P/E Ratio (13.597) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.265). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (0.744). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.880) is also within normal values, averaging (6248.204).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MLI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MTUS in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 03, 2026
MTUS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 39 cases where MTUS's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTUS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 60 cases where MTUS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +0.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTUS advanced for three days, in 215 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 174 of 244 cases where MTUS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTUS as a result. In 57 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTUS turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
MTUS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTUS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTUS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MTUS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.997) is normal, around the industry mean (2.084). MTUS has a moderately high P/E Ratio (87.632) as compared to the industry average of (32.382). MTUS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.962) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.073) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.659) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTUS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MLI | MTUS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 78 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MLI's Valuation (49) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MTUS (76) in the Steel industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to MTUS’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Metal Fabrication industry is significantly better than the same rating for MTUS (78) in the Steel industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew significantly faster than MTUS’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's SMR Rating (36) in the Metal Fabrication industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTUS (89) in the Steel industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTUS’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's Price Growth Rating (62) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MTUS (62) in the Steel industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to MTUS’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's P/E Growth Rating (65) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MTUS (95) in the Steel industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to MTUS’s over the last 12 months.
| MLI | MTUS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 50% | 8 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MLI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MTUS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MLI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTUS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MLI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTUS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MLI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTUS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MLI (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +4.58% price change this week, while MTUS (@Steel) price change was +10.28% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was +4.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.94%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +5.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.33%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
MLI is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
MTUS is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (+4.13% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (+5.80% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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MLI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MLI has been loosely correlated with MTUS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MLI jumps, then MTUS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MLI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLI | 100% | -0.49% | ||
| MTUS - MLI | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.08% | ||
| CODI - MLI | 45% Loosely correlated | -3.28% | ||
| MDU - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.57% | ||
| NWPX - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.10% | ||
| NUE - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.24% | ||
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MTUS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTUS has been closely correlated with RS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTUS jumps, then RS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTUS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUS | 100% | -1.08% | ||
| RS - MTUS | 66% Closely correlated | +0.89% | ||
| CMC - MTUS | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.28% | ||
| RYZ - MTUS | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.92% | ||
| NUE - MTUS | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| WS - MTUS | 58% Loosely correlated | -2.33% | ||
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