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CMI vs SWK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cummins Inc. (CMI) vs. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Cummins Inc. (CMI) operates in the power generation and engine systems sector, while Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) focuses on tools, storage, and industrial products, creating distinct exposure profiles within the broader industrials space.
- Recent market activity shows CMI shares declining approximately 11% over the past month amid broader sector pressures, whereas SWK posted gains following its Q2 2026 earnings release and raised guidance.
- CMI reported strong Q1 2026 results with revenue of $8.4 billion and raised its full-year outlook, supported by demand in data center power and on-highway markets, ahead of its Q2 earnings on August 4, 2026.
- SWK delivered Q2 2026 net sales of $4.0 billion (up 3% organically), adjusted EPS of $1.57 (beating estimates), and increased 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.20–$5.80 while reducing debt by $1.7 billion.
- Both companies have demonstrated capital return initiatives, with CMI increasing its quarterly dividend by 10% to $2.20 per share and SWK executing share repurchases alongside dividend payments.
- Relative positioning highlights trade-offs between CMI’s larger market capitalization (~$87.5 billion) and exposure to energy transition themes versus SWK’s more modest size (~$14.3 billion) and recent operational recovery.
Introduction
Investors and traders often compare industrial stocks to assess diversification opportunities across sub-sectors with varying economic sensitivities. Cummins Inc. (CMI) and Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) represent two distinct segments of the industrials landscape: power systems and tools/storage products, respectively. This comparison provides relevant insights for those evaluating relative performance, sector momentum, and risk factors in the current market environment. Market participants focused on industrial cyclicality, capital allocation trends, and earnings trajectories may find the analysis useful for portfolio positioning decisions.
CMI Overview and Recent Performance
Cummins Inc. (CMI) designs, manufactures, and distributes engines, power generation systems, and related components for on-highway, off-highway, and stationary applications. Recent market activity reflects pressure on shares, with an approximate 11% decline over the past month despite positive underlying fundamentals. The company delivered Q1 2026 revenue of $8.4 billion and raised full-year revenue guidance to +8% to +11%, citing strength in data center power demand and North American on-highway markets. A 10% dividend increase to $2.20 per share underscores consistent capital return, marking 17 consecutive years of increases. Sentiment remains supported by upcoming Q2 2026 earnings expectations of $7.33 EPS, though broader market volatility has influenced short-term price behavior.
SWK Overview and Recent Performance
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) provides hand and power tools, storage solutions, and engineered fastening systems across professional and consumer channels. Recent performance has shown resilience following its Q2 2026 earnings release, with net sales of $4.0 billion in line with the prior year and up 3% organically. Adjusted EPS of $1.57 exceeded expectations, prompting management to raise 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.20–$5.80 and free cash flow outlook. The company reduced debt by $1.7 billion and executed $250 million in share repurchases during the quarter. Shares have responded positively to these developments amid ongoing productivity initiatives and tariff-related benefits, contributing to year-to-date gains of approximately 30%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Cummins Inc. (CMI) and Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) operate in complementary yet differentiated areas of the industrials sector. CMI derives revenue primarily from heavy-duty engines and power solutions, exposing it to energy transition, infrastructure, and transportation cycles, while SWK focuses on tools and storage, with greater sensitivity to housing, construction, and consumer spending. Recent momentum favors SWK following its earnings beat and guidance raise, contrasted with CMI’s near-term share price softness ahead of its earnings release. Risk factors differ: CMI faces commodity and regulatory exposure in power markets, whereas SWK contends with input cost inflation and retail channel dynamics. Market sentiment reflects CMI’s larger scale and dividend stability against SWK’s operational turnaround and debt reduction efforts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including recent earnings delivery, guidance momentum, and relative price stability, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) over Cummins Inc. (CMI). SWK’s post-earnings catalysts and balance sheet improvements provide clearer near-term trend consistency, while CMI awaits confirmation from its upcoming report amid recent price consolidation. This assessment remains probabilistic and subject to evolving market data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMI is a StrongBuy and SWK is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSWK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CMI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SWK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SWK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SWK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMI (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а -2.02% price change this week, while SWK (@Tools & Hardware) price change was -1.75% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +1.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.96%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was +0.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.98%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMI is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
SWK is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+1.75% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (+0.15% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
| CMI | SWK | CMI / SWK | |
| Capitalization | 86.9B | 15.4B | 564% |
| EBITDA | 5.23B | 1.81B | 288% |
| Gain YTD | 24.473 | 40.423 | 61% |
| P/E Ratio | 32.27 | 24.96 | 129% |
| Revenue | 33.9B | 15.2B | 223% |
| Total Cash | 3.18B | 592M | 538% |
| Total Debt | 8.24B | 4.76B | 173% |
CMI | SWK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 90 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 47 Fair valued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 81 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 8 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 44 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SWK's Valuation (4) in the Tools And Hardware industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMI (47) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMI’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for SWK (100) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew significantly faster than SWK’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's SMR Rating (43) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SWK (81) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew somewhat faster than SWK’s over the last 12 months.
SWK's Price Growth Rating (8) in the Tools And Hardware industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMI (51) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMI’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as SWK (44) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew similarly to SWK’s over the last 12 months.
| CMI | SWK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 66% | 13 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 67% |
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CMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMI has been closely correlated with ATMU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMI jumps, then ATMU could also see price increases.
SWK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SWK has been closely correlated with NDSN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SWK jumps, then NDSN could also see price increases.