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CMI vs SWK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cummins Inc. (CMI) vs. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMI (Cummins) is benefiting from durable, secular demand for power generation tied to data centers, with orders extending into 2028.
- SWK (Stanley Black & Decker) is in a margin-recovery and portfolio-simplification phase, aided by cost cuts and an aerospace divestiture.
- Both names have strengthened in recent quarters, but CMI carries clearer, more consistent growth catalysts and stronger earnings momentum.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: CMI is currently favored over SWK based on trend consistency, catalysts, and relative positioning.
- For more context on each name, visit CMI Major News and CMI Today's Price Move, as well as SWK Major News and SWK Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading bots are positioning across the market, explore the curated Trending AI Robots section.
Introduction
Industrial manufacturers often move together, yet CMI and SWK present two very different investment profiles within the sector. Cummins is a global power leader exposed to heavy-duty engines and fast-growing data center power generation, while Stanley Black & Decker is a branded tools and outdoor products company working through a turnaround. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors weighing secular growth against a value-and-recovery story, and to traders tracking relative performance and market positioning between two established industrial names.
CMI Overview and Recent Performance
Cummins Inc. is a Columbus, Indiana-based manufacturer of diesel and alternative-fuel engines, powertrain components, power generation systems, and zero-emissions technologies. In recent weeks, the stock has reflected a company whose earnings power is being reshaped by demand for backup and prime power for data centers, even as its traditional North American truck market remains uneven.
In its most recent quarterly report, CMI grew revenue roughly 13% year over year and posted record earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), with margins expanding. Management highlighted strong power generation orders, with larger generator set orders extending into the second half of 2028. At the same time, weaker pickup truck demand prompted a modest trimming of full-year revenue guidance, and quarterly earnings per share (EPS) came in below some consensus estimates. Sentiment has thus been balanced between enthusiasm for the data center opportunity and caution over cyclical softness. The company also raised its quarterly dividend for a 17th consecutive year, reinforcing shareholder returns.
SWK Overview and Recent Performance
Stanley Black & Decker is a global provider of power tools, hand tools, storage, outdoor products, and engineered fasteners under brands including DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, STANLEY, and BLACK+DECKER. The company has spent recent years reducing costs and simplifying its portfolio, and recent market activity suggests investors are responding to that progress.
In its latest quarter, SWK reported organic revenue growth and a significant year-over-year expansion in adjusted gross and EBITDA margins, supported by productivity gains and a favorable product mix. Adjusted EPS exceeded guidance, and the company raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook while increasing its free cash flow forecast. A major catalyst has been the sale of its Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing business to Howmet Aerospace, which generated proceeds used to reduce debt and support a new share repurchase program. Offsetting these positives, demand for some consumer-facing tools and outdoor products remains soft, and the balance sheet still carries a meaningful debt load. The result is a recovery narrative that is improving but not yet fully derisked.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates a large library of AI-powered trading bots that collectively track thousands of different tickers. Because not every bot is equally suited to shifting market conditions, Tickeron curates only the strongest performers into its Trending AI Robots section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the sets of tickers they follow, allowing users to compare quantitative signals across momentum, trend, and other technical approaches. The curated list is designed to surface the bots that are best aligned with current market dynamics. Traders and investors interested in data-driven stock comparison and relative performance may find it useful to explore Trending AI Robots to see which strategies are currently gaining traction.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ sharply in business model and growth drivers. CMI is an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) tied to commercial vehicles, industrial power, and a surging data center market, giving it a structural tailwind that is largely independent of consumer spending. SWK is more exposed to discretionary retail demand through its tools and outdoor segment, although its engineered fastening and aerospace-linked industrial business adds diversification.
On recent momentum, CMI has shown stronger and more consistent earnings expansion, driven by record EBITDA and expanding margins. SWK has improved profitability meaningfully, but part of that improvement has been supported by one-time factors such as tariff refunds, and its organic growth remains more modest. Risk profiles also differ: CMI faces cyclical truck demand and regulatory transition risk, while SWK contends with soft do-it-yourself (DIY) demand and a still-elevated debt burden despite recent reduction efforts. In terms of market sentiment, investors appear to be rewarding CMI for a clearer secular growth path, while treating SWK as an improving but still-proving turnaround.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward CMI over SWK. Cummins combines steadier trend consistency, expanding margins, and a multi-year demand catalyst in data center power generation with a demonstrated record of shareholder returns. Stanley Black & Decker's improving profitability and debt reduction are encouraging, but its growth is more dependent on a still-recovering consumer environment and on factors that may not repeat. On a probabilistic basis, CMI currently presents the stronger relative positioning of the two.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMI is a Hold and SWK is a Hold.
CMI's RSI Oscillator sits in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMI advanced for three days, in 218 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
CMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 175 of 309 cases where CMI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMI as a result. In 53 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CMI turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.823) is normal, around the industry mean (3.805). P/E Ratio (22.904) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.482). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.044) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.110) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
SWK's RSI Indicator is sitting in overbought zone for 11 days
The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SWK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
SWK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SWK as a result. In 64 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
SWK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SWK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +4.32% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SWK advanced for three days, in 192 of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 130 of 203 cases where SWK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. SWK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.936) is normal, around the industry mean (3.143). P/E Ratio (27.944) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.467). SWK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.170) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.020). SWK has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.029) as compared to the industry average of (0.018). P/S Ratio (0.886) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SWK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
CMI | SWK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 69 Overvalued | 56 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 44 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SWK's Valuation (56) in the Tools And Hardware industry is in the same range as CMI (69) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew similarly to CMI’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SWK (100) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew somewhat faster than SWK’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's SMR Rating (44) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SWK (79) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew somewhat faster than SWK’s over the last 12 months.
SWK's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Tools And Hardware industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMI (64) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMI’s over the last 12 months.
SWK's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Tools And Hardware industry is in the same range as CMI (53) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew similarly to CMI’s over the last 12 months.
| CMI | SWK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 65% | 12 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SWK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CMI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SWK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SWK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SWK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMI (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а -10.00% price change this week, while SWK (@Tools & Hardware) price change was +11.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +1.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.33%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was -3.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMI is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
SWK is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+1.25% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (-3.70% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
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CMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMI has been closely correlated with ETN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMI jumps, then ETN could also see price increases.
SWK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SWK has been closely correlated with NDSN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SWK jumps, then NDSN could also see price increases.