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CMI vs SWK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cummins Inc. (CMI) vs. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMI is benefiting from surging data center power demand, with its Power Systems segment growing roughly 19% year over year in recent quarters.
- SWK is in the midst of a portfolio and margin recovery, helped by tariff refunds and a major divestiture that strengthened its balance sheet.
- Cummins (CMI) has delivered stronger trailing relative performance, with its shares climbing sharply over the past 12 months versus the broader market.
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) trades at a lower forward valuation and has posted improving profitability, but demand in its core tools and outdoor markets remains largely flat.
- Both companies recently raised their full-year financial outlooks, signaling management confidence in near-term execution.
- The two stocks carry different risk profiles: CMI is levered to AI infrastructure and cyclical truck markets, while SWK is tied to consumer and construction spending.
Introduction
Investors weighing industrial exposure often encounter two very different growth narratives in a single comparison: CMI and SWK. Cummins Inc. is a global power leader riding a wave of electricity demand from data centers and artificial intelligence, while Stanley Black & Decker is a tools and outdoor products maker executing a multi-year turnaround focused on margins and debt reduction. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and longer-term investors who want to understand how market positioning, momentum, and sector exposure diverge between an infrastructure-driven industrial and a consumer-facing manufacturer. Examining their recent performance side by side can clarify which profile better suits current market conditions.
CMI Overview and Recent Performance
Cummins Inc. (CMI) designs and manufactures engines, power systems, components, and related technologies, organized across five segments: Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems, and Accelera (its zero-emissions unit). In recent market activity, the stock has been a standout, climbing roughly 42% over the past 12 months and substantially outperforming the S&P 500.
The primary catalyst has been robust demand for backup and prime power generation tied to data center buildouts. Recent quarterly results showed Power Systems revenue rising about 19% year over year, with the segment's profitability expanding to among the company's highest margins. Management has raised its full-year revenue and profitability outlook in response, citing improving North American truck markets alongside sustained data center power demand. The company also announced a 10% dividend increase, marking its 17th consecutive year of higher payouts. These factors have supported a constructive shift in sentiment, though the traditional engine business remains tied to cyclical truck and industrial demand.
SWK Overview and Recent Performance
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is a global leader in tools, outdoor power equipment, and engineered fastening, operating through its Tools & Outdoor and Engineered Fastening segments. In recent weeks, the stock has shown a mixed picture: shares rose notably on a year-to-date basis but pulled back modestly over the most recent month.
The company's turnaround has centered on a multi-year cost-reduction program that generated roughly $2.1 billion in pre-tax run-rate savings, along with portfolio simplification. Recent results showed a sharp rise in net earnings and gross margin expansion, partly aided by net tariff refunds. The company also completed the sale of its Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing (CAM) business, using the proceeds to reduce debt by approximately $1.7 billion and fund share repurchases. Management raised its full-year earnings-per-share and free cash flow guidance, reflecting confidence in margin recovery. However, organic demand in its core tools and outdoor business has remained roughly flat, and inflationary pressures on inputs such as resins and battery metals continue to offset some cost improvements.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies occupy different positions within the industrial landscape. Cummins (CMI) is increasingly viewed as a beneficiary of AI-driven energy demand, giving it a compelling secular growth narrative alongside its cyclical engine and truck exposure. Its Power Systems and Distribution segments are growing, but its Engine and Components businesses remain sensitive to North American truck cycles and global trade policy. This creates a higher-growth, higher-momentum profile with meaningful cyclical risk.
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), by contrast, offers a value-oriented turnaround story. Its margin expansion and debt reduction are progressing, and its forward price-to-earnings ratio is below its industry average. Yet its growth is more modest, with flat to low-single-digit organic sales, and its end markets—consumer tools, outdoor products, and construction—are more sensitive to housing and discretionary spending. Risk factors for SWK include soft do-it-yourself demand and input-cost inflation, while CMI faces regulatory and emissions-transition uncertainty as well as reliance on data center capital spending.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, momentum, and catalyst clarity, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward CMI. Cummins has demonstrated stronger and more sustained relative performance, a clearer near-term growth driver in data center power generation, and multiple upward revisions to guidance—factors typically associated with positive trend persistence. SWK presents a credible margin-recovery case, but its flatter organic growth and recent share-price pullback suggest a less consistent trend profile at present. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects relative positioning in the current environment rather than a permanent judgment on either company's long-term prospects.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMI is a Hold and SWK is a Hold.
CMI in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 16, 2026
CMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 37 cases where CMI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CMI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMI as a result. In 51 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMI just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +1.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMI advanced for three days, in 218 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 62 cases where CMI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The 50-day moving average for CMI moved below the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMI entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.694) is normal, around the industry mean (4.583). P/E Ratio (27.040) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.005). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.044) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.110) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
SWK's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SWK turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where SWK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SWK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SWK as a result. In 62 of 96 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +2.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SWK advanced for three days, in 197 of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for SWK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SWK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
SWK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SWK entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. SWK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.559) is normal, around the industry mean (3.150). P/E Ratio (22.501) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.091). SWK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.170) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.020). SWK has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.036) as compared to the industry average of (0.017). P/S Ratio (0.886) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SWK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
CMI | SWK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 52 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 44 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SWK's Valuation (52) in the Tools And Hardware industry is in the same range as CMI (74) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew similarly to CMI’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for SWK (100) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew significantly faster than SWK’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's SMR Rating (44) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SWK (79) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew somewhat faster than SWK’s over the last 12 months.
SWK's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Tools And Hardware industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMI (57) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that SWK’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMI’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as SWK (33) in the Tools And Hardware industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew similarly to SWK’s over the last 12 months.
| CMI | SWK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 65% | 7 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 56% | 26 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while SWK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CMI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SWK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SWK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SWK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMI (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а -1.09% price change this week, while SWK (@Tools & Hardware) price change was +2.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -8.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -14.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.28%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was -1.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
SWK is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-8.84% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (-1.67% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
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CMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMI has been closely correlated with ETN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMI jumps, then ETN could also see price increases.
SWK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SWK has been closely correlated with NDSN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SWK jumps, then NDSN could also see price increases.