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CVCO vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cavco Industries (CVCO) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CVCO and TOL both operate in U.S. housing, but they serve very different buyer segments: affordable factory-built homes versus luxury single-family communities.
- CVCO has shown stronger recent revenue growth momentum, while TOL is managing softer demand, a shrinking backlog, and margin pressure.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, growth momentum, and relative positioning, the AI framework currently favors CVCO over TOL.
- For more detail, explore CVCO Major News and CVCO Today's Price Move, as well as TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- Discover how automated strategies are navigating the market by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Homebuilding stocks are closely watched barometers of consumer confidence, mortgage-rate conditions, and housing affordability. Comparing CVCO (Cavco Industries) and TOL (Toll Brothers) offers a useful window into two ends of the residential spectrum: value-oriented factory-built housing versus the premium luxury segment. This stock comparison is relevant to traders seeking relative performance signals and to investors evaluating how different business models respond to the same macroeconomic backdrop. By examining growth drivers, market positioning, and recent sentiment shifts, readers can better assess which name currently exhibits the stronger, more consistent trend.
CVCO Overview and Recent Performance
CVCO, Cavco Industries, designs and produces factory-built homes, including manufactured and modular housing, and operates a financial-services segment that provides consumer financing for buyers. This structure positions the company toward the more affordable end of the housing market, where demand has historically proven resilient when interest rates pressure traditional site-built affordability. In recent market activity, Cavco has reported solid top-line growth, with revenue expanding at a double-digit annual pace across recent quarters, supported by strength across production, retail, and financial services. Management has cited continued demand for attainable housing even amid "fluid" macroeconomic conditions. Sentiment has been broadly constructive, though the stock has experienced periodic volatility tied to broader homebuilding-sector and interest-rate swings.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL, Toll Brothers, is a leading U.S. luxury homebuilder that designs, builds, and sells high-end single-family and attached homes across numerous markets, while also arranging financing. Its affluent buyer base has helped insulate the business from some affordability pressures, yet recent quarters have been marked by "soft demand" across several markets, a declining backlog, and modest gross-margin compression. The company has pursued disciplined pricing and inventory management and has moved to exit its multifamily Apartment Living business through a portfolio sale, sharpening its focus on core luxury homebuilding. Shareholders also benefit from a dividend and active buybacks. Relative to Cavco, Toll Brothers has demonstrated slower revenue growth and downward pressure on earnings, shaping a more cautious near-term market sentiment.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is their positioning within housing. CVCO targets the entry-level and value segment through factory-built homes, a model that generally benefits when affordability challenges push buyers toward lower-priced alternatives. TOL serves luxury buyers who are comparatively less rate-sensitive but whose purchase activity still responds to overall housing sentiment and pricing power.
On growth, CVCO has recently expanded revenue at a meaningfully faster rate, while TOL has produced only modest sales growth alongside declining earnings and a shrinking order backlog. On valuation and income, the picture reverses: TOL trades at a considerably lower price-to-earnings multiple and offers a dividend, whereas CVCO carries a higher earnings multiple and does not pay a dividend. Risk factors also differ — Cavco faces exposure to manufactured-housing affordability and financing conditions, while Toll Brothers faces luxury-demand cyclicality and the execution risk of its multifamily exit.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing observable factors such as trend consistency, revenue momentum, and relative positioning, the Tickeron AI framework currently leans toward CVCO over TOL. Cavco's steadier top-line growth and resilient demand across its business segments suggest a more consistent underlying trend, whereas Toll Brothers is navigating softer demand, backlog declines, and margin pressure that weigh on its near-term outlook. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting current market conditions that can shift with changes in interest rates and housing sentiment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVCO is a Buy and TOL is a Buy.
CVCO sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for CVCO moved above the 200-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVCO as a result. In 57 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVCO just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where CVCO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
CVCO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CVCO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +21.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVCO advanced for three days, in 242 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 178 of 239 cases where CVCO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CVCO moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 72%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
CVCO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVCO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CVCO's P/B Ratio (4.422) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.910). P/E Ratio (27.465) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.060) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.842) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 59 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 66 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.648) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.205) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
CVCO | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (70) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as CVCO (82). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to CVCO’s over the last 12 months.
CVCO's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (35). This means that CVCO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
CVCO's SMR Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (58). This means that CVCO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
CVCO's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (41). This means that CVCO’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as CVCO (24). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to CVCO’s over the last 12 months.
| CVCO | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 74% | 10 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVCO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CVCO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVCO’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVCO’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CVCO (@Homebuilding) experienced а +1.19% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVCO is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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CVCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVCO has been loosely correlated with TOL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVCO jumps, then TOL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CVCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVCO | 100% | -2.38% | ||
| TOL - CVCO | 66% Loosely correlated | -2.65% | ||
| LGIH - CVCO | 60% Loosely correlated | -5.71% | ||
| LEGH - CVCO | 60% Loosely correlated | -2.14% | ||
| GRBK - CVCO | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.01% | ||
| LEN - CVCO | 58% Loosely correlated | -5.37% | ||
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