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LEN vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lennar (LEN) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Lennar (LEN) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are leading U.S. homebuilders with differing scale and market positioning, both navigating a challenged housing environment in recent market activity.
- Lennar reported lower first-quarter 2026 earnings year-over-year alongside modest new order growth, contributing to recent stock pressure and downward earnings revisions.
- Toll Brothers delivered a stronger second-quarter 2026 beat with raised full-year guidance, reflecting better operational momentum in recent weeks.
- Relative performance shows TOL with more positive year-to-date sentiment compared to LEN's underperformance versus broader indices.
- Sector exposure to interest rates and housing demand remains a shared risk factor, with trade-offs in volume versus pricing power.
- Market positioning highlights LEN's broader reach in entry-level segments versus TOL's focus on higher-end communities.
Introduction
Lennar (LEN) and Toll Brothers (TOL) represent two prominent players in the U.S. residential construction sector, offering investors exposure to housing market dynamics. This comparison examines their recent performance, operational results, and relative positioning amid ongoing interest rate sensitivity and demand fluctuations. Professional traders and investors monitoring cyclical sectors, as well as those evaluating homebuilder equities for portfolio diversification, may find the analysis relevant for understanding competitive contrasts and sector trends.
Lennar Overview and Recent Performance
Lennar Corporation (LEN) is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, focusing on entry-level and move-up homes across multiple markets. In recent market activity, the stock has faced pressure, trading near $90.49 as of early June 2026 after declines that outpaced the broader market. First-quarter 2026 results showed net earnings of $229 million ($0.93 per diluted share), down from the prior year, with new orders rising just 1% year-over-year. Analysts have lowered 2026 earnings estimates amid housing market softness. Share repurchases continued, with 2 million shares bought back in the quarter. Sentiment reflects caution tied to affordability challenges and margin trends.
Toll Brothers Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) specializes in luxury and move-up homes, operating in select high-end markets. Recent performance has been more constructive following second-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.72 beating estimates and revenue of $2.51 billion. The company raised full-year guidance across key metrics after orders increased 7% year-over-year. The stock has traded around $137–$139 recently, contributing to stronger relative gains over the past year. Positive developments center on margin expansion and operational execution, supporting a more favorable market reception in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ in scale and segment focus: Lennar (LEN) emphasizes high-volume production in attainable price points, while Toll Brothers (TOL) targets premium communities with higher average selling prices. Growth drivers for Lennar include broader geographic reach and order volume stability, whereas Toll Brothers benefits from pricing power and recent order acceleration. Recent momentum favors TOL following its earnings beat and guidance increase, contrasting with Lennar’s earnings contraction and revised estimates. Risk factors include shared exposure to mortgage rates and inventory levels, though TOL’s smaller scale may imply different volatility profiles. Market sentiment has tilted more constructively toward TOL in recent activity, highlighting trade-offs between volume-oriented versus margin-focused strategies within the homebuilding sector.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and recent earnings delivery, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a probabilistic edge to Toll Brothers (TOL) due to stronger sequential momentum and guidance revisions. Lennar (LEN) shows resilience in scale but faces greater near-term pressure from estimate adjustments. This assessment reflects relative positioning without implying certainty or investment recommendations.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LEN is a Hold and TOL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LEN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LEN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LEN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LEN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
LEN (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.40% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +7.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +14.99%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.17%.
Reported Earning Dates
LEN is expected to report earnings on Jun 11, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+7.91% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| LEN | TOL | LEN / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 22.1B | 13B | 170% |
| EBITDA | 2.41B | 1.7B | 142% |
| Gain YTD | -11.742 | 3.102 | -378% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.93 | 10.55 | 122% |
| Revenue | 33.2B | 11B | 302% |
| Total Cash | 2.39B | 1.11B | 216% |
| Total Debt | 5.26B | 2.92B | 180% |
LEN | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 94 | 45 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (63) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (89). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (45) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (94). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (79). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (59). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
LEN's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (28). This means that LEN’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| LEN | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 16 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 30 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 63% |
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LEN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LEN has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LEN jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.