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PHM vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PulteGroup (PHM) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PHM and TOL operate in the U.S. homebuilding sector and have delivered YTD returns below the S&P 500 amid elevated mortgage rates.
- PHM reported Q2 2026 results with an 11% revenue decline and share repurchases totaling $373 million in the quarter.
- TOL is scheduled to release fiscal Q3 earnings on August 18, 2026, with analysts projecting an 11.8% revenue drop year-over-year.
- Over the trailing 12 months, TOL posted stronger returns than PHM, reflecting differences in product focus and market positioning.
- Analyst consensus remains constructive for PHM with a Moderate Buy rating and average price target near $140.
- Sector-wide pressures from affordability constraints continue to influence sentiment for both stocks.
Introduction
PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) represent two leading players in the U.S. residential construction industry. Investors and traders often compare these names to assess relative performance within the homebuilder segment, evaluate exposure to housing market cycles, and identify potential divergences in operational execution or valuation. This analysis appeals to those monitoring sector rotation, interest-rate sensitivity, and growth-oriented equities in a higher-rate environment.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup develops and constructs homes across multiple price points and regions in the United States. Recent market activity shows the stock trading near $130, with year-to-date gains of approximately 11.5% that trailed the broader S&P 500. Second-quarter 2026 results reflected an 11% year-over-year revenue decline to $3.8 billion, driven by lower closing volumes and average selling prices, though the company continued share repurchases. New-order trends and analyst price targets around $140 have supported moderate positive sentiment amid ongoing affordability challenges in the housing market.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers focuses on luxury single-family homes and communities. The stock has traded near $148 recently, posting year-to-date returns of roughly 10.3% that also lagged the S&P 500 benchmark. The company is set to report fiscal third-quarter results on August 18, 2026, with expectations of an 11.8% revenue decline and a 22.3% drop in earnings per share year-over-year. Recent community openings underscore its luxury positioning, while longer-term three-year returns have outpaced the index, reflecting resilience in its target segment despite broader sector headwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PHM offers broader geographic and price-point exposure, supporting volume-driven growth but exposing it to greater cyclical swings in entry-level demand. TOL concentrates on the luxury segment, which can provide more stable margins during periods of wealth concentration yet faces sensitivity to high-net-worth buyer sentiment. Recent twelve-month returns favor TOL over PHM, while PHM maintains a higher analyst price target relative to recent trading levels. Both companies contend with elevated mortgage rates and inventory dynamics, though their differing buyer profiles create distinct risk-return profiles within the same sector.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including relative twelve-month momentum, earnings visibility, and positioning within the luxury versus broader housing segments, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable near-term trend consistency to TOL. This assessment remains probabilistic and subject to shifts in macroeconomic data or sector catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PHM is a StrongBuy and TOL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PHM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PHM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PHM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
PHM (@Homebuilding) experienced а -0.72% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +0.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -0.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
PHM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-0.98% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| PHM | TOL | PHM / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 24.1B | 13.4B | 180% |
| EBITDA | 2.61B | 1.7B | 154% |
| Gain YTD | 8.553 | 7.916 | 108% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.95 | 11.69 | 111% |
| Revenue | 16.4B | 11B | 149% |
| Total Cash | 1.89B | 1.11B | 170% |
| Total Debt | 2.3B | 2.92B | 79% |
PHM | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 30 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (65) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (68). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (42). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (57). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (53). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (30). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| PHM | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 62% |
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PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.