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PHM vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PulteGroup (PHM) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are both major U.S. homebuilders, with PHM focused on a broader range of price points and TOL emphasizing luxury homes.
- In recent weeks, TOL has seen multiple analyst upgrades, including to Buy ratings citing positioning in a K-shaped economy, while PHM prepares for second-quarter earnings on July 22, 2026.
- Relative performance shows TOL with stronger year-to-date returns around 12% compared to PHM’s approximately 8% through mid-July 2026.
- Both companies have reported solid balance sheets, with PHM highlighting share repurchases and TOL maintaining focus on backlog and margins amid fluctuating demand.
- Market sentiment has been influenced by housing market dynamics, including mortgage rates and new home sales data, affecting both stocks similarly yet with TOL showing more pronounced recent analyst interest.
- Risk factors for both include interest rate sensitivity and economic conditions, though TOL’s luxury segment may offer differentiation in certain market environments.
Introduction
PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) represent two prominent players in the U.S. residential construction sector, making them relevant for comparison in the current market. Investors and traders seeking exposure to the housing industry often evaluate these stocks to assess relative performance, business model differences, and positioning amid economic variables such as interest rates and consumer demand. This analysis appeals particularly to those focused on sector-specific opportunities, value-oriented strategies, or momentum plays within consumer cyclicals. By examining recent developments, financial metrics, and market reactions over the past several weeks, the comparison provides objective insights into how these companies navigate similar industry headwinds and opportunities.
PulteGroup (PHM) Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup (PHM) operates as a leading homebuilder with a diversified portfolio spanning entry-level, move-up, and active-adult communities across numerous U.S. markets. In recent market activity, the stock has traded in a range reflecting broader housing sector pressures, with prices around $126 to $128 as of mid-July 2026. Year-to-date returns stand near 8%, slightly trailing the S&P 500. Recent first-quarter results highlighted earnings per share of $1.79, alongside a 3% increase in net new orders and active share repurchase programs, including a $1.5 billion authorization increase. Sentiment has been shaped by anticipation of second-quarter earnings scheduled for July 22, 2026, with analysts noting potential impacts from demand trends and margin dynamics. The company maintains a conservative debt-to-capital ratio, supporting stability in a fluctuating interest rate environment.
Toll Brothers (TOL) Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers (TOL) specializes in luxury homes, targeting higher-income buyers with customized offerings in select markets. The stock has demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, trading near $150 to $152 amid positive analyst commentary. Year-to-date performance approximates 12%, outpacing broader indices in some periods. Key developments include upgrades from firms such as Citi, shifting to Buy ratings based on the company’s alignment with a K-shaped economic recovery favoring premium segments. Backlog metrics and gross margins have remained focal points, with revenue generation around $11 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis. Market sentiment has benefited from these analyst actions and positioning in the luxury space, though the stock remains sensitive to overall housing affordability and sales velocity indicators.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In terms of business models, PulteGroup (PHM) serves a wider customer base with homes across multiple price segments, potentially offering greater volume potential but higher exposure to entry-level demand fluctuations. Toll Brothers (TOL) concentrates on luxury residences, which may provide resilience through affluent buyer stability yet faces narrower market depth. Growth drivers for both include land acquisition and community development, though TOL’s recent analyst focus highlights differentiation in upscale positioning. Recent momentum favors TOL following multiple rating upgrades, while PHM shows steady operational execution ahead of its earnings release. Risk factors encompass shared sector vulnerabilities such as mortgage rate sensitivity and supply chain costs, with TOL potentially carrying additional premium-segment cyclicality. Sector exposure remains concentrated in U.S. housing for both, and market sentiment reflects cautious optimism tied to economic data releases. Trade-offs include PHM’s scale advantages versus TOL’s targeted premium appeal.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent analyst upgrades, relative year-to-date performance, and positioning within luxury segments, Tickeron’s AI would likely assign a probabilistic edge to Toll Brothers (TOL) in the current environment. Trend consistency appears stronger for TOL amid positive sentiment shifts, though PulteGroup (PHM) maintains solid fundamentals that could support stability post-earnings. This assessment draws from verifiable market reactions and positioning rather than forecasts, with outcomes remaining subject to broader economic variables.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PHM is a Buy and TOL is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PHM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PHM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PHM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PHM (@Homebuilding) experienced а -1.77% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -2.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
PHM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.97% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| PHM | TOL | PHM / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 24.1B | 13.6B | 177% |
| EBITDA | 2.79B | 1.7B | 165% |
| Gain YTD | 8.314 | 8.481 | 98% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.92 | 11.09 | 117% |
| Revenue | 16.8B | 11B | 153% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.11B | - |
| Total Debt | 2.28B | 2.92B | 78% |
PHM | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 61 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 40 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 53 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (61) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (63). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (40). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (53) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (55). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (52). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (26). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| PHM | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 2 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 2 days ago 65% |
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.