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PHM vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PulteGroup (PHM) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PHM and TOL are leading U.S. homebuilders facing margin compression from elevated incentives and affordability pressures, yet they diverge sharply by buyer segment.
- PHM (PulteGroup) is a diversified builder serving entry-level and active-adult buyers, with average selling prices near $542,000 and a conservative debt-to-capital ratio near 12%.
- TOL (Toll Brothers) is a luxury-focused builder with average delivered prices above $1 million and a more affluent, largely cash-capable buyer base.
- TOL has posted stronger order growth and raised its full-year delivery guidance, while PHM is pivoting toward a higher build-to-order mix to support margins.
- Both stocks have pulled back in recent months, with PHM down more than 10% and TOL down roughly 14% over a trailing three-month window.
Introduction
PulteGroup (PHM) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are two of the most widely followed names in U.S. homebuilding, yet they occupy different ends of the housing market. This stock comparison is relevant to investors weighing relative performance, market positioning, and sector exposure amid a period of volatile mortgage rates and cautious consumer confidence. PulteGroup competes across entry-level, move-up, and active-adult segments, while Toll Brothers concentrates on luxury and move-up buyers. For traders and longer-term investors alike, understanding how these contrasting business models respond to the same macroeconomic headwinds can help clarify which stock offers the more consistent trend and positioning in the current environment.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, based in Atlanta, is one of America's largest homebuilders, operating in more than 45 markets through brands including Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta, and John Wieland. In recent quarters, PHM has reported declining top- and bottom-line results as higher incentives and affordability pressure weighed on margins. Home sale gross margin slipped to about 24.4% in the first quarter, down from 27.5% a year earlier, while average selling prices eased to roughly $542,000. A relative bright spot has been order stability: net new orders rose about 3% year over year, supported by a roughly 9% increase in average community count. Management has signaled a strategic pivot toward a higher mix of build-to-order homes to lift margins over coming quarters. Over recent months the stock has traded lower, and shares were recently near $111, down more than 10% over a one-month span and roughly 16% over the past year.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury residential communities across the United States, focusing on move-up and affluent buyers. In its most recent fiscal quarters, TOL has navigated a subdued housing market with a resilient higher-income customer base. The company's average delivered price rose about 8% year over year to over $1 million, helping cushion lower unit volume, while net signed contracts increased roughly 7% and contract value rose about 8%. Toll Brothers raised its full-year delivery and average-price guidance, and its community count expanded to 471 from 420 a year earlier, supporting continued growth. Margins, however, remain under pressure, with adjusted home sales gross margin easing to about 26% in recent results. The stock has pulled back roughly 14% over the trailing three months and recently traded in the mid-$130s, prompting fresh Buy initiations from major brokers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is market positioning. PulteGroup is a diversified, higher-volume builder whose entry-level and active-adult focus makes it more sensitive to mortgage rates and first-time buyer affordability. Toll Brothers concentrates on the luxury segment, where roughly a quarter of buyers pay cash, giving it a degree of insulation from rate volatility. This shows up in their financials: TOL's average delivered price exceeds $1 million versus PHM's roughly $542,000, but PHM carries a notably lower debt-to-capital ratio near 12% compared with TOL's near 25%. On momentum, TOL has demonstrated stronger recent order growth and raised guidance, while PHM has leaned on community-count expansion and a build-to-order transition. Risk factors overlap—both face incentive-driven margin compression and softer consumer confidence—but TOL's exposure is concentrated in luxury wealth effects, whereas PHM is more exposed to first-time buyer demand. Market sentiment has softened on both, though recent analyst initiations have tilted slightly more favorably toward TOL.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, order momentum, pricing power, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely view Toll Brothers (TOL) as the more favorable of the two in the current environment. Its affluent buyer base, rising average selling prices, growing community count, and upwardly revised delivery guidance suggest a steadier trend profile than PulteGroup's (PHM) margin-recovery story, which is still in the early stages of a build-to-order transition. That said, TOL's higher leverage and concentration in the luxury segment introduce their own risks, and the verdict reflects probabilistic, trend-based signals rather than certainty. Investors should weigh these characteristics against their own objectives and time horizon.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PHM is a Hold and TOL is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for PHM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
PHM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 71 of the 92 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PHM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 16 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.774) is normal, around the industry mean (1.725). P/E Ratio (12.291) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.911). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.511) is normal, around the industry mean (1.725). P/E Ratio (11.192) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.911). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
PHM | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 27 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (69) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (73). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (42). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (58). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (55). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (27). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| PHM | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 25 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 59% | 8 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 6 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PHM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PHM’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PHM (@Homebuilding) experienced а +6.73% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +7.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +5.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+5.52% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.