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NVR vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVR, Inc. (NVR) vs. PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NVR and PHM are leading U.S. homebuilders navigating a softer housing market marked by elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressure.
- NVR reported lower homebuilding revenue and compressed margins, while its land-light model and buybacks remain structural strengths.
- PHM has held a higher gross margin, grown its resilient active-adult segment, and retained a stronger analyst consensus.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, margin resilience, and relative analyst positioning, the AI framework currently favors PHM over NVR.
- For additional context, explore NVR Major News and NVR Today's Price Move, as well as PHM Major News and PHM Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-driven strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Homebuilders sit at the intersection of interest-rate cycles, consumer confidence, and labor and land costs, making direct peer comparisons especially useful for investors. NVR and PHM are two of the most prominent U.S. homebuilding companies, yet they pursue notably different operating models. This stock comparison examines their recent relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning to help traders and long-term investors evaluate which name currently offers the more favorable risk-reward profile in a cooling housing environment.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. (NVR) builds and sells homes under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands while also operating a mortgage banking segment. Its defining characteristic is an asset-light land strategy: the company generally acquires finished lots through option agreements rather than tying up large amounts of capital in raw land, which supports a net-cash balance sheet and steady share repurchases.
Recent market activity has been challenging. In its latest quarterly results, homebuilding revenue declined year over year amid fewer settlements and lower average selling prices, while homebuilding gross margin contracted as higher lot costs and pricing pressure weighed on profitability. The cancellation rate ticked higher, and new orders softened, though backlog grew. Analyst sentiment has also cooled, with some firms initiating or shifting to cautious ratings. These factors have kept relative performance subdued in recent weeks despite the company's historically strong capital efficiency.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), based in Atlanta, operates across more than 45 markets through a diversified brand portfolio that includes Pulte Homes, Centex, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods. This breadth lets the company serve first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers simultaneously.
Like its peer, PHM has faced softer demand tied to higher borrowing costs and reduced traffic, particularly among first-time buyers. Home sale revenue and earnings per share (EPS) declined year over year, and net new orders fell. However, the company preserved a comparatively strong gross margin, reported lower build costs per square foot, and grew net new orders in its active-adult segment, where cash-heavy buyers are less rate-sensitive. It also maintained a modest debt-to-capital ratio and continued returning capital through buybacks and dividends, supporting more resilient sentiment among analysts.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor thousands of tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of securities. Because market conditions shift constantly, only a subset of these bots is well suited to the current environment at any given time. The Trending AI Robots page curates that select group, highlighting the strategies showing the most relevant recent performance and alignment with prevailing market dynamics. Traders can use these tools to observe how data-driven systems are approaching names such as NVR and PHM. Exploring the curated selection offers a practical starting point for evaluating automated approaches to the homebuilding sector.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in business model and breadth. NVR relies on a concentrated, capital-light lot-option strategy that historically produced strong returns and abundant buybacks, but its footprint and product mix are narrower. PHM offers broader geographic and demographic diversification, including a fast-growing active-adult franchise, and returns capital through both buybacks and a dividend.
On profitability, PHM has sustained a higher homebuilding gross margin and demonstrated cost discipline, whereas NVR has experienced more pronounced margin compression. On valuation and sentiment, NVR trades at a premium multiple relative to peers and has drawn cautious analyst actions, while PHM carries a broader "Buy"-oriented consensus. Both face shared risks—elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and softer buyer traffic—but their trade-offs differ: NVR offers structural capital efficiency, while PHM offers resilience through diversification and mix.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, margin resilience, segment diversification, and relative analyst positioning, the AI-driven framework would likely favor PHM in the current environment. Its steadier gross margin, growth in the active-adult category, balanced capital returns, and stronger consensus stance suggest more stable positioning than NVR, whose premium valuation and recent rating actions introduce additional uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting observable factors that could shift as housing demand and financing conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVR is a Buy and PHM is a StrongBuy.
NVR's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVR turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 10 of 15 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVR as a result. In 58 of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
NVR moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
NVR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NVR entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVR's P/B Ratio (4.682) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.847). P/E Ratio (14.677) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.909) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
PHM's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for PHM moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 16 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 14 of the 16 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 69 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.826) is normal, around the industry mean (1.826). P/E Ratio (12.651) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
NVR | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVR's Valuation (68) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (74). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (76). This means that PHM’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (57). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (59). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (55). This means that PHM’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| NVR | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 4 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 4 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 4 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 4 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 4 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 56% | 22 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 4 days ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NVR (@Homebuilding) experienced а +9.38% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +2.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +5.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVR is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+5.61% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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