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NVR vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVR, Inc. (NVR) vs. PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NVR, Inc. (NVR) and PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) are both major U.S. homebuilders operating in the same cyclical sector, with exposure to housing demand, interest rates, and consumer sentiment.
- In recent market activity, both companies reported first-quarter 2026 results showing year-over-year revenue declines alongside modest growth in net new orders, reflecting ongoing affordability pressures in the housing market.
- PHM has demonstrated relatively stronger share-price resilience over the past year compared with NVR in broader market comparisons, though both stocks have experienced volatility tied to macroeconomic factors.
- NVR maintains a higher average selling price per home and a more concentrated geographic footprint, while PHM operates across a wider range of price points and communities.
- Sector-wide headwinds such as elevated mortgage rates have influenced sentiment for both stocks in recent weeks, with order growth providing a partial offset.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between NVR’s premium positioning and PHM’s scale and diversification advantages.
Introduction
NVR, Inc. (NVR) and PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) are leading homebuilders whose stocks are frequently compared by investors seeking exposure to the U.S. housing market. Both companies build and sell single-family homes, yet they differ in scale, pricing strategy, and operational focus. This comparison appeals to traders monitoring sector rotation, value investors evaluating cyclical names, and those assessing relative momentum within the consumer discretionary space. Market participants often review such pairings to gauge how interest-rate sensitivity, order trends, and margin dynamics play out across similar business models in the current environment.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. (NVR) focuses on the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, primarily in the eastern and midwestern United States, with an emphasis on higher-priced segments. In recent market activity, the company reported first-quarter 2026 results that included a notable decline in home-sale revenues alongside a moderate increase in net new orders. Average selling prices remained relatively stable year over year, suggesting limited price concessions despite softer demand. Stock-price movements in recent weeks have reflected broader housing-sector sentiment, influenced by mortgage-rate levels and economic data releases. The absence of forward guidance from management contributes to a measured approach among market observers tracking order trends and margin performance.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, offering homes across a broad range of price points and operating in numerous geographic markets. Recent first-quarter 2026 results showed home-sale revenues down from the prior-year period, offset in part by a modest rise in net new orders and community count expansion. Average selling prices declined slightly year over year. In recent weeks, the stock has exhibited price fluctuations consistent with sector peers, responding to macroeconomic indicators and interest-rate expectations. PHM’s diversified operations and larger scale provide visibility into how volume and mix shifts affect overall results amid prevailing affordability challenges.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
NVR, Inc. (NVR) and PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) share exposure to the same cyclical housing sector yet differ in key dimensions. NVR targets higher average selling prices and maintains a more focused geographic presence, which can result in greater sensitivity to regional demand shifts. PHM’s broader community footprint and mix of price points support larger absolute order volumes and potentially smoother revenue streams. Recent order growth has been positive for both, though revenue declines highlight shared pressures from elevated financing costs. Risk factors include interest-rate volatility and consumer confidence, with PHM’s scale offering one potential buffer compared with NVR’s premium positioning. Market sentiment has weighed on both names in recent weeks, producing contrasting relative performance patterns depending on the measurement period.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as order consistency, revenue stability, and relative positioning within recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modest probabilistic edge to PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) over NVR, Inc. (NVR). The assessment reflects PHM’s broader operational diversification and recent order trends, though outcomes remain subject to evolving macroeconomic conditions and sector dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVR is a StrongBuy and PHM is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVR’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NVR (@Homebuilding) experienced а -4.17% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was -1.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVR is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.97% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| NVR | PHM | NVR / PHM | |
| Capitalization | 16.5B | 24.1B | 68% |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 2.61B | 64% |
| Gain YTD | -15.710 | 8.314 | -189% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.98 | 12.92 | 124% |
| Revenue | 9.82B | 16.4B | 60% |
| Total Cash | 1.68B | 1.89B | 89% |
| Total Debt | 1.05B | 2.3B | 46% |
NVR | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PHM's Valuation (64) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (70). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (84). This means that PHM’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (58). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (62). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (49). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| NVR | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 60% | 7 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 57% |
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NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.