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NVR vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVR, Inc. (NVR) vs. PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PHM has shown stronger recent momentum, rising about 10% over the past 30 days and delivering year-to-date (YTD) gains of 8.88%, outpacing NVR's 7.6% 30-day increase and 2.68% YTD return.
- PHM trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.46 compared to NVR's 16.26, suggesting relatively better value in the homebuilding sector.
- Both stocks benefit from recent homebuilder sector rebounds, with technical indicators like moving average crossovers signaling potential upward trends.
- PHM boasts a larger market cap of $24.5 billion and higher revenue of $17.3 billion (trailing twelve months, or TTM), reflecting greater scale versus NVR's $19.8 billion cap and $10.4 billion revenue.
- Upcoming Q1 earnings for both—NVR on April 22 and PHM on April 23—could influence near-term sentiment amid housing market challenges.
Introduction
NVR and PHM are prominent players in the U.S. homebuilding industry, operating amid fluctuating interest rates, housing demand shifts, and economic uncertainties. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, financial metrics, and market positioning to aid investors and traders evaluating opportunities in the residential construction sector. Those tracking cyclical sectors or seeking relative value between high-quality homebuilders will find insights into momentum, valuations, and sector tailwinds relevant for portfolio decisions.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. focuses on homebuilding through its Ryan Homes and NVHomes brands, employing an asset-light model that avoids owning land inventories, which reduces balance sheet risk and capital intensity. In recent market activity, the stock has climbed approximately 7.6% over the past 30 days, rebounding from earlier quarterly weakness influenced by margin pressures and high mortgage rates. Trading around $7,097 with a market cap of $19.8 billion, NVR shows a P/E ratio of 16.26 and earnings per share (EPS) of $436.46 (TTM). Key developments include bullish technical signals, such as crossing above the 50-day moving average and positive MACD histogram turns, amid broader homebuilder gains. Sentiment reflects caution ahead of Q1 earnings, with analysts maintaining buy ratings but noting potential EPS declines.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) builds single-family homes, townhomes, and condos under brands like Pulte Homes and Del Webb, maintaining a traditional model with owned land banks for growth flexibility. Recent weeks have seen PHM advance about 10% over the past 30 days, supported by sector momentum and analyst upgrades, with YTD gains of 8.88% and 1-year returns of 35.25%. Priced near $127 with a $24.5 billion market cap, it features a lower P/E of 11.46 and EPS of $11.12 (TTM). Influences include positive momentum indicators and moving average breakouts, though overbought stochastic readings suggest possible pullbacks. Upcoming earnings anticipation drives sentiment, with forecasts for EPS around $1.83 amid revenue pressures.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both NVR and PHM operate in homebuilding but differ in scale and structure: PHM’s larger revenue base ($17.3B TTM) supports diversified growth drivers like active adult communities, while NVR’s asset-light approach yields superior return on equity (33% TTM) but limits land expansion. Recent momentum favors PHM with higher 1-year returns and lower valuation multiples, contrasting NVR’s steadier beta (1.07 vs. 1.34). Risk factors include interest rate sensitivity and softening demand for both, though PHM’s debt-to-equity (18% vs. 28%) appears more conservative. Market sentiment leans positive for homebuilders, with analyst targets implying upside, but PHM edges in value perception.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI tools currently lean toward PHM based on superior recent trend consistency, stronger relative performance (10% vs. 7.6% over 30 days), and attractive valuation amid bullish signals like MACD positivity and moving average shifts. While NVR offers stability and high returns on equity, PHM’s momentum and lower P/E position it probabilistically better for near-term upside in the homebuilding space, pending earnings outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVR is a StrongBuy and PHM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePHM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
NVR (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.28% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +2.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.34% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| NVR | PHM | NVR / PHM | |
| Capitalization | 17.2B | 24.1B | 71% |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 2.79B | 60% |
| Gain YTD | -12.892 | 7.586 | -170% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.51 | 12.15 | 128% |
| Revenue | 9.82B | 16.8B | 58% |
| Total Cash | 1.68B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 1.05B | 2.28B | 46% |
NVR | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 88 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 69 Overvalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PHM's Valuation (67) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (69). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (74). This means that PHM’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (54). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (52). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (49). This means that PHM’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| NVR | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 60% | 19 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 54% | 9 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 76% |
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NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.