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MTH vs NVR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTH and NVR are both major U.S. homebuilders, but they serve different buyers and run different operating models.
- NVR leans on a capital-light, land-option strategy and higher average selling prices, while MTH targets entry-level and first move-up buyers with a value-oriented approach.
- Both companies reported lower year-over-year earnings in recent quarters as affordability pressures and higher incentives compressed homebuilding margins.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On the basis of margin stability, balance-sheet strength, and relative trend consistency, Tickeron's AI currently favors NVR over MTH.
- For deeper coverage, explore MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move, as well as NVR Major News and NVR Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, browse the curated Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Homebuilders sit at the intersection of mortgage rates, labor costs, land supply, and consumer confidence, which makes them a useful lens on the broader economy. This stock comparison examines two well-known names with very different profiles: MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation), the fifth-largest public U.S. homebuilder with an entry-level focus, and NVR (NVR, Inc.), a premium-priced builder known for its capital-efficient land strategy. Investors weighing value versus quality, dividend income versus buybacks, or exposure to affordability-sensitive buyers versus move-up demand may find this relative-performance analysis relevant to their market positioning.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
MTH designs and builds energy-efficient single-family homes across roughly ten states, concentrating on entry-level and first move-up buyers. In its most recent quarterly report, home closing revenue declined about 12% year over year while net earnings fell sharply, reflecting lower average selling prices, higher incentives, and charges tied to terminated land contracts, inventory impairments, and severance. Full-year revenue and earnings also pulled back as home closing gross margin compressed by several hundred basis points. Management has responded by trimming land spending, cutting overhead, and accelerating share repurchases. The company ended the period with a healthy cash balance, no revolving-credit borrowings, and a modest net debt-to-capital ratio, while community count grew roughly 15% year over year. Recent market activity has kept the shares trading at a low earnings multiple relative to peers, though margin visibility remains a central investor concern.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR operates through brands including Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes, and is distinguished by a "land-light" model in which it acquires much of its lots through options rather than owning them outright. This structure historically supports higher returns on capital and lower balance-sheet risk. In its latest quarter, homebuilding revenue and earnings declined year over year, with settlements down while the average selling price rose modestly. Gross margin contracted as higher lot costs, affordability-driven pricing pressure, and contract land deposit impairments weighed on results, though new orders improved slightly. The company maintains a large cash position, carries modest debt, pays no dividend, and returns capital primarily through share repurchases, including a sizeable buyback authorization. Sentiment has been shaped by resilient but softer demand, persistent affordability challenges, and the stock's relatively premium per-share price.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is operating philosophy. NVR deliberately owns less land, prioritizing flexibility, higher return on equity, and the ability to scale back when demand softens. MTH holds a larger land position and competes on affordability and community growth, which offers share-gain potential when demand recovers but also exposes it to higher inventory and impairment risk in downturns. On valuation, MTH trades at a lower earnings multiple and pays a dividend, appealing to value and income-oriented investors, whereas NVR returns capital through buybacks and commands a higher multiple. Growth drivers differ as well: MTH leans on expanding community count, while NVR leans on disciplined pricing and capital efficiency. Both face the same macro headwinds of elevated mortgage rates and affordability, but their risk profiles diverge meaningfully.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, balance-sheet resilience, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NVR in the current environment. Its land-light model, net cash position, and more moderate margin compression suggest a comparatively steadier fundamental profile, whereas MTH has faced sharper margin erosion and elevated impairment charges even as its valuation discount and dividend provide a different kind of appeal. This is a probabilistic read on current conditions rather than a definitive claim, and the balance between these two homebuilders could shift as affordability and demand trends evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Buy and NVR is a Buy.
MTH's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for MTH moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 27 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 55 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for MTH moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.831) is normal, around the industry mean (1.826). P/E Ratio (13.348) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
NVR's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVR turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 10 of 15 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVR as a result. In 58 of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
NVR moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
NVR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NVR entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVR's P/B Ratio (4.682) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.847). P/E Ratio (14.677) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.909) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
MTH | NVR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 55 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (68). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Profit vs Risk Rating (68) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (76). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (80). This means that NVR’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (59). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (55). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | NVR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 85% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 69% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 70% | 8 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NVR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NVR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.44% price change this week, while NVR (@Homebuilding) price change was +9.38% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +5.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
NVR is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+5.71% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
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