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MTH vs NVR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MTH and NVR operate in the U.S. homebuilding sector and have faced similar pressures from elevated mortgage rates and cautious buyer demand in recent market activity.
- MTH reported first-quarter 2026 results showing revenue and earnings declines year-over-year, with an upcoming second-quarter earnings release scheduled for late July 2026.
- NVR also posted lower first-quarter 2026 net income and revenue compared to the prior year, while authorizing a new $750 million share repurchase program.
- Valuation metrics show MTH trading at a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio than NVR, reflecting differences in profitability margins and market positioning.
- Recent performance indicates MTH has delivered stronger year-to-date returns relative to NVR, which has traded lower amid broader sector headwinds.
- Sector exposure remains concentrated in residential construction for both, with risk factors tied to interest rate sensitivity and housing affordability.
Introduction
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) and NVR, Inc. (NVR) are publicly traded homebuilders that offer investors exposure to the U.S. residential construction market. This comparison examines their business models, recent financial results, and relative stock performance amid ongoing macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates and housing demand. Institutional and retail investors seeking to understand differences in scale, profitability, and market positioning within the same industry may find the analysis relevant for portfolio allocation decisions or sector rotation strategies.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) designs, builds, and sells single-family homes primarily in the southern and western United States. The company focuses on entry-level and move-up segments. In recent weeks, MTH shares have reflected mixed sentiment following first-quarter 2026 results that showed year-over-year declines in revenue and net earnings due to lower home closings and higher incentives. The stock has posted positive year-to-date returns as of mid-July 2026, supported by share repurchases and a solid balance sheet with low net debt. Upcoming second-quarter 2026 earnings, scheduled for release on July 29, 2026, with a conference call on July 30, represent a key near-term catalyst that could influence sentiment.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. (NVR) builds and sells new homes under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands, operating mainly on the East Coast and in the Midwest. The company employs a capital-efficient model that emphasizes controlling land through options rather than outright ownership. Recent market activity shows NVR shares trading lower on a year-to-date basis amid first-quarter 2026 results that included reduced revenue and net income compared with the prior year. The company authorized a $750 million share repurchase program with no expiration, which provides potential support. Analysts project an earnings release in the coming weeks, and the stock’s high absolute price level reflects its concentrated share structure and historical performance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) and NVR, Inc. (NVR) share exposure to the cyclical homebuilding industry but differ in operational scale and capital allocation. NVR maintains a higher return on equity through its asset-light land strategy, while MTH operates with a more traditional land bank approach that supports community count growth. Recent momentum favors MTH on a relative total return basis over the past year, though both stocks have experienced volatility tied to mortgage rate fluctuations. Risk factors for each include sensitivity to interest rates and potential margin compression from incentives; NVR trades at a premium valuation reflecting its profitability edge, whereas MTH offers a lower forward price-to-earnings multiple. Market sentiment remains cautious across the sector due to affordability challenges.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative stability in profitability metrics, and positioning ahead of earnings, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable near-term performance to NVR due to its stronger historical return on equity and active capital return program. MTH shows competitive momentum in recent weeks but carries greater earnings variability. This assessment reflects probabilistic evaluation of available data rather than a definitive outlook.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Hold and NVR is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNVR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -7.57% price change this week, while NVR (@Homebuilding) price change was -8.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.93%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.27%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
NVR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.83% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MTH | NVR | MTH / NVR | |
| Capitalization | 4.82B | 16.5B | 29% |
| EBITDA | 522M | 1.67B | 31% |
| Gain YTD | 10.331 | -15.601 | -66% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.06 | 16.00 | 82% |
| Revenue | 5.62B | 9.82B | 57% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.68B | - |
| Total Debt | 1.9B | 1.05B | 181% |
MTH | NVR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 80 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 52 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (5) in the Homebuilding industry is significantly better than the same rating for NVR (71). This means that MTH’s stock grew significantly faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Profit vs Risk Rating (63) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (80). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (79). This means that NVR’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (60). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (52). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | NVR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 9 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 53% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EMB | 95.99 | N/A | N/A |
| iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd ETF | |||
| PSWD | 42.68 | N/A | N/A |
| Xtrackers Cybersecurity Select Eq ETF | |||
| AEMS | 2.35 | N/A | N/A |
| Anfield Enhanced Market ETF | |||
| DMO | 10.57 | -0.08 | -0.75% |
| Western Asset Mortgage Opportunity Fund | |||
| DWM | 73.05 | -0.90 | -1.22% |
| WisdomTree International Equity ETF | |||
NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.