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MTH vs NVR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MTH and NVR operate in the homebuilding sector, facing headwinds from high interest rates and softening demand in recent market activity.
- MTH offers a lower valuation with a trailing P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of 10.93 compared to NVR's 16.26, appealing to value-oriented investors.
- NVR demonstrates superior profitability with ROE (return on equity) of 33.19% versus MTH's 8.77%.
- Recent weekly performance shows NVR up 0.97% while MTH down 3.44%, reflecting divergent momentum.
- Both companies report upcoming Q1 2026 earnings this week, amid broader homebuilder confidence at eight-month lows.
- MTH recently increased its quarterly dividend by 12%, signaling confidence in cash flow stability.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits MTH, a prominent homebuilder focused on energy-efficient single-family homes, against NVR, a larger player known for its asset-light model in residential construction. Both companies navigate a challenging housing market marked by elevated mortgage rates and cautious buyer sentiment. Traders seeking short-term momentum plays and long-term investors eyeing sector recovery will find value in analyzing their relative performance, valuations, and positioning amid recent economic pressures.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) designs and builds single-family homes, emphasizing energy-efficient features across markets in the Sun Belt and select Western states. With a market capitalization of $4.63 billion, the company has faced headwinds in recent weeks from declining quarterly revenue growth of -11.50% year-over-year and earnings contraction. Stock behavior reflects broader homebuilder pressures, with a weekly decline amid plunging builder confidence to eight-month lows due to high interest rates. Key developments include a 12% quarterly dividend hike to $0.48 per share and anticipation for Q1 2026 earnings on April 23, where analysts expect a potential beat. Sentiment has been tempered by softer sales, though low valuations (trailing P/E of 10.93) provide a buffer.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. (NVR) is one of the nation's largest homebuilders, constructing single-family homes, townhomes, and condos under brands like Ryan Homes, without owning land outright for an asset-light approach. Boasting a $19.83 billion market cap, it reported trailing twelve-month revenue of $10.44 billion. Recent performance shows resilience with YTD gains of 2.68% and a slight weekly uptick, outperforming peers in choppy conditions. Influences include quarterly revenue dip of -5% and earnings growth slowdown, alongside market-wide tariff and inflation concerns squeezing margins. Q1 2026 earnings loom on April 22, with analysts maintaining Buy ratings despite valuation scrutiny. Strong fundamentals like ROE of 33% underpin sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MTH and NVR share exposure to residential construction but differ in scale and strategy: MTH emphasizes energy-efficient builds in growth markets, while NVR leverages an asset-light model minimizing land ownership risks. Growth drivers include housing shortages offset by affordability challenges from high rates. Recent momentum favors NVR with positive weekly gains versus MTH's dip, though both trail broader indices over 12 months. Risk factors like rising cancellations and margin pressure loom larger for smaller MTH (debt/equity 36%), while NVR offers stability (beta 1.07). Market sentiment tilts toward NVR's premium positioning despite its higher price/book of 5.03 versus MTH's 0.89.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward NVR based on consistent trends, superior ROE (33.19%), robust balance sheet (debt/equity 28.34%), and relative outperformance in recent weeks amid sector volatility. MTH presents value appeal but lags in profitability and momentum stability. This positioning suggests higher probability of resilience, though both hinge on interest rate trajectories and earnings outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Buy and NVR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNVR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVR’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +10.05% price change this week, while NVR (@Homebuilding) price change was +4.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +7.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +16.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.28%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
NVR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+7.27% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MTH | NVR | MTH / NVR | |
| Capitalization | 5.56B | 18.4B | 30% |
| EBITDA | 522M | 1.67B | 31% |
| Gain YTD | 28.457 | -6.559 | -434% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.70 | 15.51 | 88% |
| Revenue | 5.62B | 9.82B | 57% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.68B | - |
| Total Debt | 1.9B | 1.05B | 181% |
MTH | NVR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 49 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (7) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (69). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Profit vs Risk Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (73). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (79). This means that NVR’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (51). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (49). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | NVR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 71% | 12 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 64% |
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NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.