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DUK vs PNW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Duke Energy (DUK) vs. Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Duke Energy is one of America's largest regulated utilities, serving 8.6 million electric customers across six states, while Pinnacle West Capital operates exclusively in Arizona through its subsidiary Arizona Public Service (APS), serving approximately 1.4 million customers.
- DUK's 2025 adjusted EPS of $6.31 represented 7% year-over-year growth, supported by a $103 billion five-year capital plan; PNW reported 2025 EPS of $5.05 with a $10.35 billion multi-year capital expenditure plan.
- PNW benefits from one of the fastest-growing service territories in the U.S., with customer growth of 2.4% and weather-normalized retail sales growth of 5.0% in 2025, while DUK is seeing accelerating demand from data center agreements now totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts.
- Both companies target long-term EPS (earnings per share) growth of 5% to 7%, but DUK's forward guidance points to continuing expansion while PNW's 2026 guidance of $4.55–$4.75 reflects near-term earnings normalization.
- Dividend investors may find both appealing: DUK offers a yield of approximately 3.5% and PNW yields roughly 3.5%–3.8%, each backed by multi-decade track records of uninterrupted payouts.
- Scale, geographic diversification, and data center catalysts give DUK a structural advantage, while PNW's concentrated exposure to Arizona's population boom offers a higher-growth, higher-volatility profile.
Introduction
Investors comparing regulated electric utilities often weigh stability against growth potential, and few pairings illustrate this trade-off better than DUK and PNW. Duke Energy, a Fortune 150 giant with operations spanning the Southeast and Midwest, and Pinnacle West Capital, a pure-play Arizona utility holding company, both operate in the same industry but pursue distinctly different paths to shareholder returns. This stock comparison examines how these two companies stack up across business models, recent performance, growth drivers, and market sentiment — offering a data-driven perspective for investors evaluating the regulated electric utility space.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
DUK — Duke Energy Corporation, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina — is one of the largest electric utility holding companies in the United States. Its electric utilities serve 8.6 million customers across North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, while its natural gas segment reaches an additional 1.7 million customers. The company operates approximately 55,100 megawatts of energy capacity and is executing an ambitious energy transition that includes significant investments in natural gas, nuclear, renewables, and energy storage.
In recent market activity, DUK delivered adjusted EPS of $6.31 for full-year 2025, marking a 7% increase over the prior year and exceeding the midpoint of its guidance range. The company introduced 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and extended its long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030. A standout catalyst has been data center demand: Duke Energy has secured approximately 4.5 gigawatts under electric service agreements, reflecting the growing energy needs of AI and cloud computing infrastructure across its service territories. The company also announced a $103 billion five-year capital plan (2026–2030), the largest fully regulated capital program in the industry, targeting critical grid modernization and new generation capacity.
Sentiment has been shaped by the company's strong execution, though rising interest expenses and a substantial long-term debt load of approximately $80 billion remain points of scrutiny. Duke Energy's planned $10 billion equity issuance between 2027 and 2030 has also drawn attention from investors focused on potential dilution. Still, the company's diversified regulatory footprint and visible growth pipeline have supported relative stability in recent trading.
PNW Overview and Recent Performance
PNW — Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, based in Phoenix, Arizona — is an energy holding company whose principal subsidiary, Arizona Public Service (APS), provides retail electricity to roughly 1.4 million homes and businesses. APS owns and operates approximately 6,200 megawatts of generating capacity, including a significant stake in the Palo Verde Generating Station, one of the nation's largest carbon-free nuclear facilities, which supplies about 27% of Arizona's electricity.
PNW reported full-year 2025 EPS of $5.05, slightly below the $5.24 recorded in 2024, as higher interest costs, increased depreciation, and weather normalization partially offset strong customer and sales growth. Customer growth reached 2.4% in 2025 — among the strongest in the utility sector — while weather-normalized retail electricity sales grew 5.0%. Arizona's rapid population expansion and the influx of large commercial and manufacturing facilities drove three all-time peak demand records during the summer of 2025, with peak demand rising more than 5% year over year.
Looking ahead, PNW has guided 2026 EPS to a range of $4.55 to $4.75 on a weather-normalized basis, reflecting headwinds from higher depreciation, property taxes, and financing costs that are expected to outpace operational gains in the near term. The company's $10.35 billion capital expenditure plan for 2025–2028 underscores its commitment to infrastructure expansion, with a projected rate base compound annual growth rate of 7% to 9% through 2028. Recent market sentiment has been shaped by the tension between PNW's compelling demographic tailwinds and the earnings reset reflected in its 2026 outlook.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between DUK and PNW is fundamentally one of scale and diversification versus concentrated growth exposure. Duke Energy's market capitalization of roughly $92 billion dwarfs Pinnacle West's approximately $10.6 billion, reflecting DUK's expansive six-state regulated footprint and dual electric-gas business model. This diversification across regulatory jurisdictions insulates DUK from adverse outcomes in any single rate case or weather event — a meaningful risk-management advantage. PNW, by contrast, derives virtually all of its earnings from APS within a single state, making it more sensitive to Arizona-specific regulatory decisions, weather patterns, and economic cycles.
On growth drivers, both companies have compelling narratives but differ in composition. DUK's growth is increasingly tied to large-scale economic development, particularly data center electrification — a secular trend with multi-decade visibility. PNW's growth is fueled by population migration and industrial expansion in Arizona, which ranked as the nation's top manufacturing growth market in 2025. PNW's customer growth rate of 2.4% substantially outpaces DUK's approximately 1.5%, yet DUK's absolute revenue base of $32.2 billion provides far greater capacity to absorb and deploy capital.
From a momentum and risk standpoint, DUK enters the current period with upward earnings trajectory and a capital plan that supports visible rate base growth. PNW faces a near-term earnings contraction as reflected in its 2026 guidance, though the longer-term thesis around Arizona's demographic expansion remains intact. Both carry elevated debt levels typical of capital-intensive utilities: DUK's long-term debt stands near $80 billion, while PNW's is approximately $9.2 billion. On a valuation basis, both trade at comparable forward P/E (price-to-earnings) multiples in the 17–18x range, suggesting the market prices their respective risk-reward profiles similarly.
Dividend reliability is a shared strength. DUK's annual dividend of $4.26 per share and PNW's comparable payout represent multi-decade commitment to shareholder returns, with both companies targeting payout ratios within sustainable ranges of 60% to 70% of earnings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, catalyst visibility, regulatory diversification, and forward earnings trajectory, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely express a modest preference for DUK over PNW in the current market environment. Duke Energy's combination of upward-trending earnings, the industry's largest regulated capital plan, and a tangible data center demand pipeline provides a more stable foundation for trend-following models. While Pinnacle West offers a compelling demographic growth story, the near-term earnings normalization signaled by its 2026 guidance introduces greater variability into its trajectory — a factor that quantitative trend models typically penalize. That said, the relative positioning could shift meaningfully if PNW's regulatory outcomes in Arizona prove more constructive than anticipated, or if Duke Energy's substantial equity issuance plans begin to weigh on price momentum. For now, the balance of observable data favors DUK's stability and growth visibility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DUK is a Buy and PNW is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DUK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePNW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DUK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PNW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DUK’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PNW’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DUK’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 2 bearish.
- PNW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DUK (@Electric Utilities) experienced а +2.50% price change this week, while PNW (@Electric Utilities) price change was -3.53% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was +1.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.11%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
DUK is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
PNW is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (+1.88% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
| DUK | PNW | DUK / PNW | |
| Capitalization | 101B | 12.9B | 783% |
| EBITDA | 17.6B | 2.2B | 799% |
| Gain YTD | 12.181 | 21.093 | 58% |
| P/E Ratio | 19.89 | 19.67 | 101% |
| Revenue | 33.2B | 5.46B | 608% |
| Total Cash | 2.14B | 6.41M | 33,391% |
| Total Debt | 91.2B | 15.1B | 604% |
DUK | PNW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 41 Fair valued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 72 | 74 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 31 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 40 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DUK's Valuation (41) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as PNW (73). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to PNW’s over the last 12 months.
PNW's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (23). This means that PNW’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's SMR Rating (72) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as PNW (74). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to PNW’s over the last 12 months.
PNW's Price Growth Rating (31) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (36). This means that PNW’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
PNW's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (47). This means that PNW’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
| DUK | PNW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 39% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 11 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 32% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 37% |
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DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with SO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then SO could also see price increases.
PNW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PNW has been closely correlated with LNT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PNW jumps, then LNT could also see price increases.